Severe Thunderstorm Warning 195, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
410 AM EST FRI NOV 14 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
THE 03 UTC REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A STATIONARY FRONT
FROM THE SC COAST...THROUGH SOUTHWEST GA...AND ALONG THE GULF
COAST TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE TX COAST. VAPOR IMAGERY AND
UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED A DIGGING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...AND A POTENT SHORT WAVE BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE TX COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING OVER OUR AREA...WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS ALREADY
EXHIBITING MARGINAL ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND IMPRESSIVE CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. THE LATEST RUC INDICATES MUCAPE FROM 350 J/KG
OVER CENTRAL GA TO 1500 J/KG ALONG THE FL GULF COAST. THIS IS
RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) THE 00 UTC NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHEARS OUT
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE (CURRENTLY OVER THE TX COAST) TODAY
AND TONIGHT AND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL LIFT THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM (CURRENTLY ALONG THE GULF COAST) NORTHWARD TODAY.
THE COMBINATION OF Q-G FORCING...INSTABILITY...AND RICH DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP TODAY. SOME OF THE MOS AND RAW MODEL OUTPUT INDICATE THAT
THERE COULD BE A LULL IN THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA...BUT WE ARE DOWNPLAYING THAT IDEA FOR
NOW AND KEEPING THE FORECAST SIMPLE. THE 0-6 KM VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 40 TO 50 KT...AND THE 0-1 KM VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 KT. THESE
VALUES...COUPLED WITH AN UNUSUALLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
(WITH MLCAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG) FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...COULD
SUPPORT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AND BOW ECHOES. THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. DESPITE THE WARM AIR ALOFT...MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STORMS WHERE THE UPDRAFTS ARE
ENHANCED. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) A FROST OR FREEZE EVENT IS POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE WILL
ALLOWS FOR A BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. MEX GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY MORNING IS ALSO BEGINNING TO DROP
NOW SHOWING WIDESPREAD MIDDLE 30S. BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS CONTINUE
TO SHOW EVEN COLDER TEMPS WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
CURRENT THINKING IS FOR WIDESPREAD MIDDLE 30S WITH NORMALLY COLDER
INLAND LOCATIONS DROPPING TO AROUND 30F. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
AND FOR INLAND URBAN CENTERS MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S IS EXPECTED.
WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS...FROST IS A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY FOR MANY
LOCATIONS AND THOSE WITH SENSITIVE OUTDOOR VEGETATION SHOULD PAY
CLOSE ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECAST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS RE-ENFORCED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE GUIDANCE PACKAGES AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR
ARRIVING BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT...HOWEVER A COOLER THAN NORMAL
PERIOD SHOULD BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VERY DIFFICULT TAF PACKAGE EARLY THIS MORNING AS SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WILL OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD...WITH EACH CHANGE POSING ITS
OWN AVIATION HAZARD. TRYING TO CORRECTLY TIME EACH TRANSITION IS
BOUND TO BE A CHALLENGE AND THIS WILL REMAIN A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST AFTER THE LATER MORNING HOURS TODAY. FIRST THINGS
FIRST...INTO THE MORNING HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH A
WIDESPREAD LOW CIG EVENT WITH AREAS OF LOWER VIS AS WELL. ALL
TERMINALS WILL BE DEALING WITH AT LEAST PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS
WITH MORE PREDOMINANT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FROM KTLH TO KABY AND
KVLD. ALSO WILL SEE OFF AND ON SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THE ACTIVITY INITIALLY SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED FROM
KPFN TO KDHN AND KABY BUT THEN EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. IFR/LIFR CIGS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO COME UP THIS
MORNING AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
SHIFT NORTH OF KDHN AND KABY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THIS EVOLUTION BUT WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS
TO IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER NOON WITH MORE WIDELY SCT CONVECTION AS
OPPOSED TO THE SCT-NMRS ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING. STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BRING
HIGHER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE TERMINALS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PROGRESSING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EVENT IS LOOKING LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  79  66  71  36  60 /  70  50  60  10   0
PANAMA CITY  79  65  71  42  61 /  70  50  50  10   0
DOTHAN       79  61  67  36  59 /  70  60  50  10   0
ALBANY       79  62  68  36  59 /  80  50  60  10   0
VALDOSTA     79  65  72  39  60 /  70  50  60  10   0
CROSS CITY   80  66  77  39  63 /  50  40  60  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

LONG TERM/AVIATION...MROCZKA
REST OF DISCUSSION...FOURNIER

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