Severe Thunderstorm Warning 189, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
338 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2008

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)
SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SUFFICIENT LOW-
LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ROTATION THAT COULD LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

A GRADUAL DRYING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY WILL BE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...OR FROM ABY TO TLH EAST. ALOFT...THE
MODELS ARE ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND TAKE THE UPPER LOW EASTWARD
TOWARD THE SE GA COAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BEYOND THIS THE ECMWF
AND GFS BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY DIVERGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO TAKE
THIS UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE EAST AND OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN REGION. THE ECMWF TAKES THIS FEATURE INTO SE GA AND
STALLS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A VERY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NORTH OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NOW COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LOW PASSING TO OUR EAST OVER
THE SHORT TERM...THE FCST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND REMAINS FAIRLY
COMPLEX FOR OUR AREA. INSTEAD OF CONTINUING TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST AS WOULD BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY EXPECTED THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE
UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA OVER THE WEEKEND...AS STRONG SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILD IN TO OUR NORTH. THIS RIDGING WILL WIN OUT BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH FAIR...WARM...AND DRY CONDITIONS...BUT
THE POP AND CLOUD FCST FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE VERY CHALLENGING
ACROSS THE CWA. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN (WITH
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ESSENTIALLY CAPPED OFF AT 600 MB)...BUT
SCATTERED LIGHT FAST MOVING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND...BUT HOPEFULLY THEY WILL BE BRIEF ENOUGH NOT TO
OVERLY DAMPEN MANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. ALSO...AS THE NEW STRONG
SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...THE E-NE WINDS COULD REACH
SCA LEVELS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OVER THE
MARINE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UP ACROSS THE WATERS INTO
THURSDAY. WIND AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A
GRADUAL CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST WITH WINDS
AND SEAS REMAINING ON THE LOW SIDE. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE MARINE AREA. EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS MAY REACH CAUTIONARY
LEVELS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH MVFR VIS/CIGS
OCCURRING IN THESE SHOWERS. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS WITH BRIEF IFR VIS/CIGS. THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER THIS EVENING AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WILL KEEP THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THESE
CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AND END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BEFORE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SAFELY ABOVE RED FLAG LEVELS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  65  81  59  85  64 /  50  20  10   0  10
PANAMA CITY  67  81  64  85  65 /  20  10   0   0   0
DOTHAN       62  83  59  85  63 /  20  10   0   0  10
ALBANY       65  80  60  85  65 /  60  20  10  10  10
VALDOSTA     65  79  61  85  64 /  60  30  10  10  10
CROSS CITY   66  82  61  86  63 /  60  30  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GIBBS
LONG TERM...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...FOURNIER

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
343 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2008

GAZ155-156-082045-
DECATUR-SEMINOLE-
343 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2008

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR DECATUR AND SEMINOLE
COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 445 PM EDT

AT 237 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHATTAHOOCHEE...OR 16 MILES
EAST OF MARIANNA...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BAINBRIDGE BY 435 PM EDT.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND IS ALSO
PRODUCING NEARLY CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

RELAY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

38-GODSEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
410 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2008

FLZ011-082115-
JACKSON-
310 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR JACKSON COUNTY...

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

AT 305 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES NORTHEAST
OF CHIPLEY TO 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHIPLEY TO CHIPLEY...OR ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHIPLEY TO CHIPLEY...MOVING
EAST AT 22 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  MARIANNA BY 345 PM CDT.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

ALSO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH
MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

18-WOOL

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