Severe Thunderstorm Warning 173, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
215 PM EDT THU AUG 07 2008

.SYNOPSIS...DESPITE AN EARLY START TO THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING
AND THE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS...THE MORE RECENT SHOWERS
AND STORMS HAVE SURPRISINGLY REMAINED QUITE WEAK AND ISOLATED IN
NATURE. WITH THE LIGHT NW LOW LEVEL FLOW...A SOMEWHAT LATER START TO
THE SEA BREEZE WAS EXPECTED...SO STILL ANTICIPATE THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND INTENSIFY AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS
ON. BASED ON EARLIER CALCULATIONS OF A CAPE OVER 4000 J/KG...AN
LI=-7.8...AND A PW=2.19...CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
WET MICROBURSTS IN THE STRONGER STORMS. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...
WINDS CONTINUE OUT OF THE W-NW AROUND 10 KTS...WITH THE SEA BREEZE
EXPECTED TO KICK IN NEAR THE COAST SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...ONCE THE CONVECTION GETS GOING IN FULL FORCE LATER
TODAY...THE MAIN QUESTIONS WILL BE HOW LONG WILL THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS LINGER INTO TONIGHT...AND WILL THE CURRENT STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM THREAT LAST THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL. BASED ON HOW QUICKLY
THE UPPER TROF TO OUR NW IS DIGGING TO THE SE...CURRENTLY BELIEVE WE
MAY SEE AT LEAST SOME STRONG CONVECTION LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THIS TROF WILL CONTINUE ITS RAPID SOUTHWARD PUSH ON FRIDAY...
WHICH SHOULD GIVE US A FAIRLY DISTINCT N-S POP GRADIENT...BEFORE THE
MUCH DRIER AIR TAKES FULL HOLD OVER THE CWA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. DEWPOINTS COULD FALL ALL THE WAY INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR ABOUT AS PLEASANT
AN AUGUST DAY AS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...THE PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY WITH SUN TURNING OUT TO
BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY FOR MID AUGUST BY FL STANDARDS. OF COURSE...DRY
THIS TIME OF YEAR MEANS HOT TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON...SO AFTER AN
UNSEASONABLY COMFORTABLE MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S,
MOST INLAND AREAS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE 92- TO 95-DEGREE RANGE.
AN ISOLATED TS CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUN AFTERNOON IN OUR FL
ZONES...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY DRY. MOISTURE WILL CREEP UPWARD
FOR MON AS LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SWLY. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WILL RETURN TO THE NRN ZONES WITH LOW CHANCE IN THE FL ZONES. BY
TUE...LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IN THIS SUMMER OF FRONTS CREEPING SWD ACROSS
DIXIE. THE 00Z GFS IS SLOWER THAN THE 06/12Z EURO TO BRING THE LOW
EWD AND THEREFORE A BIT SLOWER IN SETTLING THE FRONT TO THE S.
UNLIKE THIS WEEKENDS EVENT...A CLEAN FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED WITH
THIS NEXT FRONT STALLING OUT OVER OUR FL ZONES IN THE WED-THU TIME
FRAME. WILL KEEP POPS A BIT HIGHER S THAN N...AND GENERALLY A BIT
ABOVE CLIMO FOR THESE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...AS THE UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT PUSH
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE COASTAL WATERS...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE W AND SW TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY NEARING CAUTIONARY LEVELS
BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. SOME STORMS
WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING WET MICROBURSTS
AND SMALL HAIL. WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS MAY
REACH SPEEDS UP TO AROUND 40 TO 60 KNOTS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE
LATE EVENING HOURS AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AS THE
FRONT SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY...THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WITH THE DISTINCT POSSIBILITY OF SFC TDS DROPPING
SHARPLY ON SATURDAY...RED FLAG CONDITIONS COULD MATERIALIZE OVER
PARTS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...SINCE IT IS STILL EARLY IN THE GAME WILL
HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WX WATCH UNTIL THE MID SHIFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  74  91  69  94  66 /  50  60  30  05  05
PANAMA CITY  77  90  73  92  72 /  50  60  30  05  05
DOTHAN       72  92  66  93  65 /  50  40  20  05  05
ALBANY       72  93  67  94  66 /  50  40  20  05  05
VALDOSTA     72  91  69  93  66 /  50  40  20  05  05
CROSS CITY   74  90  71  93  68 /  50  60  30  05  05

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...GIBBS
PUBLIC/MARINE...GOULD
LONG TERM...WOOL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
547 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-080900-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
547 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2008 /447 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND
EASTERN PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

ANOTHER VERY WARM TO HOT DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN ON WEDNESDAY...HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO CONTAIN STRONG AND
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
DIMINISH BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A COLD FRONT SETTLING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WILL BRING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE RAINFALL ON FRIDAY MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY. THIS FRONT WILL
WASH OUT DURING SATURDAY WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT MAY
ALLOW FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR A TIME SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND FLORIDA BIG BEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ARE REQUESTED TO SELF ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS BECOME
NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

14-MROCZKA

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