Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
300 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

.SYNOPSIS...THE SMALL MCS WHICH FORMED TO THE SOUTH OF MOB BEFORE
SUNRISE EARLIER THIS MORNING...MOVED ONSHORE OVER THE FL PANHANDLE
BETWEEN 9 AND 10 AM EDT...AND IS NOW MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NE OVER
THE FL BIG BEND AND INTO SW GA IN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL W-SW FLOW.
WITH THIS UNUSUALLY STRONG FLOW AND EARLIER MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
DEBRIS...THE SEA BREEZE IS ALMOST INDISCERNIBLE FROM THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE WINDS...SO WILL LIKELY RE-CLASSIFY TODAY AS DISTURBED. WITH
SURPRISINGLY STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR A VERY WET
ATMOSPHERE...GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN A THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON IN THESE FAST MOVING STORMS WITH MUCH OF THE CWA NOW UNDER
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WINDS
CONTINUE OUT OF THE W-SW AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WILL NEED TO KEEP THIS VERY SHORT AS DICTATED BY THE
ONGOING SVR WX...BUT ALL INDICATIONS WITH THE LATEST 12 UTC MODEL
RUNS ARE SHOWING THE TROF DIGGING SHARPLY TO THE SE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY TOWARDS OUR CWA...LIKELY LEADING TO ADDITIONAL MCS
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY MORE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT ONCE AGAIN...WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASED HAIL RISK WITH THE
COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW HEADED OUR WAY. AS THE NW
FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER...DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY IN FOR
TUE INTO WED.

&&

.LONG TERM...THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT GRADUALLY
GETS SQUEEZED BETWEEN BUILDING RIDGES FROM THE EAST AND WEST. THE
DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND CLIMO POPS RETURN TO THE LOCAL REGION BY THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AT
OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EVOLVING TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOWARD KVLD...WITH NEW FIRING CONVECTION
OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND SE AL. WITH MORE HEATING TAKING PLACE...
THESE STORMS MAY PACK A BIT MORE OF A PUNCH TOWARD KVLD AND WILL
INCREASE THE TEMPO WIND POTENTIAL. EXPECTING A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ENTERS
THE FORECAST WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH...
ESPECIALLY FOR KDHN AND KABY. WILL ALSO BE MONITORING FOR ADDITIONAL
MCS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITH THE THREAT FOR MORE STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF
SUSTAINED 10 TO 15 KT WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY IN THE VICINITY OF ANY
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WILL HAVE TO KEEP TABS WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION ON TUE AND WED...BUT CURRENTLY EXPECT RHS TO
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  72  86  68  90  66 /  60  60  40  30  10
PANAMA CITY  75  85  72  89  69 /  60  60  30  20  10
DOTHAN       71  87  67  91  62 /  60  60  30  10  10
ALBANY       70  89  66  90  63 /  60  60  30  10  10
VALDOSTA     71  89  67  91  65 /  60  60  40  30  10
CROSS CITY   72  88  71  87  68 /  60  60  40  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
PUBLIC/MARINE...GOULD
LONG TERM...BARRY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
339 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-300745-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
339 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008 /239 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE
REGION AGAIN TODAY. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...A FEW STORMS COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR WIND AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.
HOWEVER...LIKE MOST SUMMER DAYS...LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MOST
WIDESPREAD THREAT. ALSO...BRIEF A WATERSPOUT CAN OCCASIONALLY
DEVELOP WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING DURING THE SUMMERTIME OVER THE
WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN ON MONDAY. WHILE WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
UNLIKELY...A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING...STRONG
WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HAIL. A DECREASE IN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

FOURNIER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
314 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

ALZ067-GAZ120>122-292000-
CLAY-HENRY-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-
314 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR CLAY...HENRY...
QUITMAN AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES...

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT/300 PM CDT/

AT 206 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES WEST OF EUFAULA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND IS ALSO
PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

RELAY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

85-GIBBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
338 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

FLZ017-027-292030-
LEON-WAKULLA-
338 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN LEON AND
WAKULLA COUNTIES...

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT

AT 330 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF CRAWFORDVILLE...MOVING EAST
AT 30 TO 35 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND IS ALSO
PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

RELAY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

85-GIBBS

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