Severe Thunderstorm Warning 123, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
315 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...SO FAR TODAY MOST OF
THE CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUTHEAST
BIG BEND. CURRENTLY...ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WERE OVER
THE LAND AREAS BUT A FEW HAVE BEEN STRONG WITH DIME SIZE HAIL BEING
REPORTED IN JEFFERSON COUNTY. SHORT WAVE CLEARLY EVIDENT IN THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA. WILL KEEP
CHANCE OF POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING WITH SLIGHT POP ALL
ZONES OVERNIGHT. THE SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
BEST LIFT WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS WITH
AXIS STAYING WEST OF OUR CWA. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA
SHOW PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND TWO INCHES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR OUR SEA BREEZE CLIMATOLOGY THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER
DISTURBED DAY WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF OUR CWA. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SWING EAST MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE
NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
FILTERING IN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE ECMWF IS STILL THE
MOST BULLISH ON SCOURING OUT THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. WILL TAPER MONDAYS POPS FROM MID RANGE
CHANCE (40%) NW TO LIKELY (60-70%) E-SE AND THEN DOWN TO SLIGHT
ACROSS THE BOARD FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...STILL EXPECTING A GRADUAL
CHANGE IN THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN AS WE GO THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A
FINAL...RELATIVELY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL ROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE
EASTERN U.S. TROUGH BY TUESDAY...AND PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BEGINS TO
SHIFT EASTWARD...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. HEIGHTS WILL
GRADUALLY RISE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. STARTING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...AS WEAK RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.
THE RESULT WILL BE A RETURN TO SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER CONDITIONS AND
HIGHER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM AT PFN EARLIER TODAY...
THE SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BULK OF THE
STORMS IMPACTING THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE EXTREME SE FL BIG BEND.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...DID LEAVE IN TSRA TEMPOS FOR
TLH...PFN...AND VLD...BUT NOW ANTICIPATE THAT DHN AND ABY WILL
REMAIN DRY. OVERNIGHT...COULD SEE SOME MINOR VIS RESTRICTIONS...BUT
DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING LOWER THAN MVFR AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS STAY BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS REMAINS
WEAK. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY BECOMING ISOLATED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP THE
CONDITIONS WILL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  71 87 70 88 69/ 40 70 40 60 20
PANAMA CITY  73 86 74 87 74/ 30 70 40 50 20
DOTHAN       71 89 71 89 71/ 30 50 30 40 20
ALBANY       70 91 70 90 69/ 40 70 30 50 20
VALDOSTA     69 88 71 88 70/ 40 70 30 60 20
CROSS CITY   70 86 71 86 69/ 40 70 40 70 20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC/MARINE...BARRY
AVIATION/FIRE WX...GOULD
LONG TERM...DUVAL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
504 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-221000-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
504 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008 /404 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. ALTHOUGH A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND
GUSTY WINDS. THESE STORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
823 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

GAZ142-143-155-156-220115-
DECATUR-EARLY-MILLER-SEMINOLE-
823 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR DECATUR...EARLY...
MILLER AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES...

* UNTIL 915 PM EDT

AT 817 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF DONALSONVILLE...MOVING EAST
AT 24 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  6 MILES NORTH OF DONALSONVILLE BY 835 PM EDT.
  5 MILES SOUTH OF COLQUITT BY 850 PM EDT.

SMALL HAIL...WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND
VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

9-FOURNIER