River Flood Warning 51, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
506 PM EST WED DEC 10 2008

...HEAVY RAIN WITH POSSIBLE FLOODING AND ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
THE UPPER LOW IS CLOSING OFF AS IT APPROACHES THE TX GULF COAST.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS INCREASING OVER A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN
STATIONARY JUST W OF THE AREA MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE UPPER FORCING
MOVES EWD OVERNIGHT, A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE FRONT S OF
MOB WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NNEWD ALONG THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL AL BY
DAYBREAK THU. THIS LOW WILL THEN TRACK NEWD ACROSS NRN GA ON THU.
THESE POSITIONS REPRESENT A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS, WHICH ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...FINALLY. WE ANTICIPATE CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE OVERNIGHT WITH A SQUALL LINE A GOOD BET. THIS
LINE WILL THEN SURGE EWD WITH THE FRONT DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE NIGHT. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE WATCHES ARE ANTICIPATED. UNTIL THAT
TIME, THE THETA-E RIDGE WILL NOSE NWD ACROSS THE SAME AREAS THAT GOT
DELUGED WITH RAIN DURING THE DAY. THE GREATEST QPF OVERNIGHT WILL BE
E OF THIS AREA, SO WE ISSUED A WATCH THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE NW HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SQUALL LINE WILL STILL BE IMPACTING OUR
ERN ZONES DY DAYBREAK THU...BUT WILL MOVE E OF THE AREA BY AROUND
15Z. GUSTY W WINDS WILL USHER IN COOLER TEMPS AND MAX TEMPS ON THU
WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE MORNING. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE HIGH ENOUGH
TO PROMPT THE ISSUANCE OF A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THU. AS THE UPPER
LOW LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE AREA THU INTO THU EVENING. THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT LIFT TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN INTO
THU EVENING. EVEN THROUGH MUCH COLDER AIR WILL INVADE THE AREA THU
NIGHT, THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE EXITED THE AREA BEFORE IT GETS COLD
ENOUGH FOR IT TO CHANGE OVER TO ANYTHING NON-LIQUID IN NATURE. FRI
WILL BE A COOL BUT DRY DAY AND WE ANTICIPATE A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS
MOST INLAND AREAS FRI NIGHT...AWAY FROM THE COAST AND OUTSIDE URBAN
CENTERS.

COASTAL ISSUES...
A HIGH SURF EVENT IS ONGOING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE COAST WITH SURF
LIKELY AROUND 6-7 FT THIS AFTERNOON. AS WINDS SHIFT TO WLY ON THU...
THE SURF COULD REACH 10 FT THU INTO THU NIGHT...DROPPING BELOW 6 FT
FRI MORNING. THE HIGHEST SURF WILL BE IN EASTER BAY AND GULF
COUNTIES. THIS TYPE OF SURF WILL CAUSE SOME BEACH EROSION. COASTAL
FLOODING HOWEVER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH MAXIMUM DEPARTURES OF ABOUT
A FOOT. FURTHER E...WE ANTICIPATE TOTAL DEPARTURES OF AROUND 2 FT
FOR THE THU MORNING AND THU NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLES ALONG THE TAYLOR
AND DIXIE COUNTY COASTS. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED.

.LONG TERM...SAT THROUGH WED.
THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
FOLLOWING BY RIDGING SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST BUT CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL PREVENT ANY
COLD FRONTS FROM ADVANCING INTO THE LOCAL TRI-STATE REGION. EXPECT
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY WITH A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS INLAND AREAS
WITH NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH MON.
SOLID SCA ONGOING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THE
COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO W AND INCREASE EVEN
FURTHER. WE ARE LOOKING AT SOLID 25 TO 30 KT WINDS WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. THEREFORE A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON FRI. AFTER HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA, ELY WINDS WILL PICK UP TO CAUTION FOR SAT
NIGHT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO OCNL IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. BAND
OF +TSRA WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. A STRONGER
DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST
OVERNIGHT AND LIFT NEWD ACROSS GA ON THURSDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER A LULL IN THE CONVECTION
THIS EVENING...MORE TSRA WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA WITH THE SQUALL LINE OVERNIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING. IFR VSBYS WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND
CONVECTIVE GUSTS ABOVE 40 KT WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA.
SLY WINDS 10-15 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BEFORE INCREASING
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE AND COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO WLY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BE GUSTY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PREVENT RED FLAG
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY. COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR
MOST OF THE FL PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH BUT
MENTION IN THE DISCUSSION AND REMARKS OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.
RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR THIS
WEEKEND AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SHARP RISES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED ON THE PEA RIVER DUE
TO THE HEAVY RAINS FROM EARLIER TODAY OVER SE AL. THIS POINT IS NOW
FORECAST TO REACH FLOOD STAGE AROUND MIDDAY THU AND GET CLOSE TO
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE THAT AFTERNOON. THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER IS
ALSO FORECAST TO RISE TO FLOOD STAGE AT CARYVILLE BY THIS WEEKEND.
ADDITIONAL RIVERINE FLOODING COULD OCCUR FURTHER E IN THE HSA WITH
THE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN THAT AREA ON TAP FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  59  62  36  60  31 /  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX
PANAMA CITY  57  58  38  60  38 /  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX
DOTHAN       55  57  33  56  32 /  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX
ALBANY       58  59  37  60  30 /  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX
VALDOSTA     62  63  41  58  33 /  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX
CROSS CITY   63  65  40  61  31 /  XX  XX  XX  XX  XX

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...HOUSTON.

GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BAKER...CALHOUN...CLAY...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY...
     LEE...MILLER...MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...
     TERRELL...TURNER...WORTH.

FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...
     CALHOUN...COASTAL WALTON...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...
     JACKSON...WASHINGTON.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAY...COASTAL WALTON...GULF.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY ALL ZONES.

     GALE WATCH FROM 4 AM EST THU TO 4 AM EST FRI COASTAL WATERS
     FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO DESTIN FL OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY COASTAL
     WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO DESTIN FL 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO
     APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...JAMSKI
LONG DISCUSSION...BARRY
REST OF DISCUSSION...WOOL

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