River Flood Warning 25, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
325 PM EDT SAT APR 5 2008

.SHORT TERM...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS COMBINING WITH MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS
DROPPED SOUTHEAST AND IS NOW SOUTH OF TALLAHASSEE WITH A MUCH MORE
STABLE AIRMASS TO THE NORTH. WILL LIKELY DROP THE WATCH FOR
GEORGIA COUNTIES WITH AFTERNOON UPDATE.

AS SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...CONVECTION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST. SFC FRONT WILL
SETTLE JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY SUNDAY...AND THIS WILL TRIGGER
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MAINLY THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
CWA. REMAINDER OF AREA TO BE MOSTLY DRY.

BY MONDAY...THIS WAVE SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA WITH RIDGING ALOFT
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...BOTH THE 00 UTC SAT GFS AND 12 UTC FRI ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED DRIER FOR AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS
A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ANOTHER STRONG SFC WEDGE
EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND DOWN THE APPALACHIANS SHOULD COMBINE TO
KEEP THE DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFF TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS RETURN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK...BUT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MAY HAVE QUITE A BIT OF
TROUBLE PENETRATING EASTWARD AGAINST THE STRENGTHENING UPPER
RIDGE...SO ANY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE...EXPECT ABOVE CLIMO
TEMPS TO PERSIST...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND
LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS...AND GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AS A FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA AND STALLS TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CIGS
AND VSBYS TO DOMINATE WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WITH CIGS AND VSBYS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR
FROM NW TO SE SUNDAY MORNIN..BUT PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS TO STAY ELEVATED OVER THE EASTERN
WATERS...ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF APPROACHING THUNDERSTORMS...THIS
EVENING. WILL GO AHEAD WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVSIORY FOR EASTERN
WATERS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD THEN
DECREASE FOR SUNDAY IN THE VICINITY OF QUASI STATIONARY FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN INTO THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY WITH
WINDS INCREASING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THOUGH SOME DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD DOWN INTO THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO
ENSURE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  64  80  59  80  60 /  50  30  20   0   0
PANAMA CITY  63  77  64  79  63 /  30  30  10   0   0
DOTHAN       56  81  57  80  58 /  20  10  10   0   0
ALBANY       57  83  59  79  54 /  40  10  10   0   0
VALDOSTA     64  82  60  78  56 /  60  20  30  10   0
CROSS CITY   66  82  63  80  58 /  60  50  40  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO
     OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...DUVAL
LONG TERM...GOULD