Alert archive / Florida / Red Flag Warnings in 2008

Red Flag Warning 96, NWS Tallahassee, FL

October 18, 20085 counties in Alabama; 16 counties in Florida

NWS Tallahassee, FL issued this red flag warning at Oct 18, 2008, 1:46 PM CDT for 5 counties in Alabama; 16 counties in Florida. It took effect at Oct 19, 2008, 10:26 AM CDT. It was in force for 8 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Oct 18, 2008, 1:46 PM CDT (18:46 UTC)
In effect from
Oct 19, 2008, 10:26 AM CDT
Expired
Oct 19, 2008, 6:00 PM CDT
In force
8 hr
Issued by
NWS Tallahassee, FL
All 21 counties

Coffee County, AL, Dale County, AL, Geneva County, AL, Henry County, AL, Houston County, AL, Bay County, FL, Calhoun County, FL, Dixie County, FL, Franklin County, FL, Gadsden County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Holmes County, FL, Jackson County, FL, Jefferson County, FL, Lafayette County, FL, Leon County, FL, Madison County, FL, Taylor County, FL, Wakulla County, FL, Walton County, FL, Washington County, FL

The radar

The Tallahassee radar (KTLH), 55 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Tallahassee Rgnl, FL (KTLH), launched 12:00Z, 6.8 hours before the alert went out and 57 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tallahassee Rgnl, FL at 12:00Z on 2008-10-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tallahassee Rgnl, FL at 12:00Z on 2008-10-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 22 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-21 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
509 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
40 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
22 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
86 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WWUS82 KTAE 181846
RFWTAE

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
246 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2008

...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO LONG DURATIONS OF
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 35 PERCENT...

...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF
THE FLORIDA BIG AND EASTERN PANHANDLE DUE TO EXPECTED LONG
DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 35 PERCENT...

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...WITH LONG DURATIONS OF LOW 
RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT
EXPECT RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AS WINDS WILL NOT MEET RED FLAG
CRITERIA.

FLZ007-009>013-190000-
/O.UPG.KTAE.FW.A.0081.081019T1800Z-081019T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KTAE.FW.W.0096.081019T1800Z-081019T2300Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0095.000000T0000Z-081018T2200Z/
INLAND WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-
146 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM CDT SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM CDT SUNDAY. THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A RED FLAG WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON. 

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

FLZ014>019-026>029-034-190000-
/O.UPG.KTAE.FW.A.0081.081019T1800Z-081019T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KTAE.FW.W.0096.081019T1800Z-081019T2300Z/
GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-
TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-
246 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2008 /146 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2008/

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ TO 7 PM
EDT /6 PM CDT/ SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ TO 7 PM EDT
/6 PM CDT/ SUNDAY. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

JAMSKI
3 follow-up statements
000 
WWUS82 KTAE 182214
RFWTAE

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
614 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2008

...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF
THE FLORIDA BIG AND EASTERN PANHANDLE DUE TO EXPECTED LONG
DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 35 PERCENT...

.DISCUSSION...COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST INTO SUNDAY...WITH LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS TIME...DO
NOT EXPECT RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AS WINDS WILL NOT MEET RED
FLAG CRITERIA.

FLZ007-009>013-191000-
/O.EXP.KTAE.FW.W.0095.000000T0000Z-081018T2200Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0096.081019T1800Z-081019T2300Z/
INLAND WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-
514 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM CDT
SUNDAY...
...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR TODAY...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ENHANCE FIRE
GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

FLZ014>019-026>029-034-191000-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0096.081019T1800Z-081019T2300Z/
GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-
TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-
614 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2008 /514 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2008/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ TO
7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ SUNDAY...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

JAMSKI/GIBBS
000 
WWUS82 KTAE 190923
RFWTAE

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
523 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2008

...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF
THE FLORIDA BIG AND EASTERN PANHANDLE DUE TO EXPECTED LONG
DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 35 PERCENT...

.DISCUSSION...COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LONG DURATIONS OF LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS
TIME...DO NOT EXPECT RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AS WINDS WILL NOT
MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA. ON MONDAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY
BRIEFLY REACH CRITICAL VALUES FOR FLORIDA...BUT AT THIS TIME...DO
NOT EXPECT DURATIONS TO BE MET.

FLZ007-009>019-026>029-034-192000-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FW.W.0096.081019T1700Z-081019T2300Z/
INLAND WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-
GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-
DIXIE-
523 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2008 /423 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2008/

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EDT /NOON CDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EDT /NOON CDT/
THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING. 

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

WATSON
000 
WWUS82 KTAE 191526
RFWTAE

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1126 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2008

...A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING 
FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA DUE TO AT LEAST ONE HOUR OF RELATIVE 
HUMIDITY BELOW 30 PERCENT...SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 10 MPH
AND A KBDI ABOVE 500...

...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT (6 PM CDT)
THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA BIG AND EASTERN PANHANDLE
DUE TO EXPECTED LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 35
PERCENT...

.DISCUSSION...COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH LONG
DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE TR-
STATE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. 

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA ARE NOW EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR AT LEAST ONE HOUR. THIS COMBINED WITH
BREEZY AND LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND A KBDI ABOVE 500 WILL
GENERATE RED FLAG CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME... WINDS WILL NOT MEET
RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. ON
MONDAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY BRIEFLY REACH CRITICAL
VALUES FOR FLORIDA...BUT AT THIS TIME...CRITICAL DURATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

ALZ065>069-192300-
/O.EXB.KTAE.FW.W.0096.081019T1526Z-081019T2300Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-
1026 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON. 

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

FLZ007-009>019-026>029-034-192300-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0096.081019T1700Z-081019T2300Z/
INLAND WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-
GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-
DIXIE-
1126 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2008 /1026 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2008/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/
THIS EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/
THIS EVENING. 

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

BLOCK

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tallahassee, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Oct 18, 1:30 PM CDT, 16 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 18, 1:30 PM CDT, 16 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
220 P EDT SAT OCT 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
AT 2 PM EDT...IT WAS SUNNY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.TEMPS/DEW
POINTS/WINDS RANGED FROM AROUND 70/50 SE ALA TO LOW 70S/MID 60S
OVER SE BIG BEND. IN WAKE OF FRONT...24 HR TEMP/DEW POINT COMPARISON
INDICATES THAT  LOCAL AIRMASS FROM 7-10 DEGREES DRIER SE BIG BEND UP
TO 18-24 DEGREES DRIER ACROSS SE BIG BEND/WRN PANHANDLE.

AT UPPER LEVELS...
BIG CONUS PIX SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA. A LARGE RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES (ANCHORED
N-S RIDGE OVER ROCKIES WITH A HIGH OVER NM/MEX BORDER). A LONGWAVE
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM EASTERN CANADA DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD OVER SRN APPALACHIANS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY MID-LEVEL TROUGH AS IT PUSHES ACROSS
THE SE STATES. IN RESPONSE...SE CONUS RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR RECENT
WARM AND FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE SHUNTED S/SE. OVERNIGHT...THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXITS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST PUSHING TROUGH TO
ALONG AND THEN JUST OFF ERN SEABOARD B4 SUNRISE MONDAY. IN RESPONSE
CONUS FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY ZONAL FROM W-E BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT.

AT LOWER LEVELS...
MAIN CONUS FEATURES ARE HIGH AND COLD FRONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WAS STRETCHED FROM SW COLORADO NORTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES. CLOSER TO HOME...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM SC COAST
TO S OF ST AUGUSTINE THRU CITRUS COUNTY ON W COAST AND SWWD INTO THE
GULF OF MEX EXTENDING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. BACKSIDE OF FRONT
CLEARLY DELINEATED BY AIRMASS CONTRASTS...I.E. DEW POINTS IN MOD 60S
OVER CNTRL FL AND UPPER 40S ACROSS SE ALA.

DURING THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO EXIT FURTHER E/SE OF CWA WITH STRONG E-W DRYING OUT OF
ATMOSPHERE. THIS REFLECTED IN ABOVE AIRMASS CONTRASTS AND IN 12Z
RAOBS...I.E JAX...TAE AND BMX WITH 1.34...1.21 AND 0.47 INCH PWATS
RESPECTIVELY. IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...A STRONG CP AIRMASS WITH 1025MB
SURFACE RIDGE DROPPING S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT KEEPING THE LOCAL GRADIENTS TIGHT. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY PLEASANT REST OF THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OVER THE SE CONUS...WITH
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE EASTERLY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO BRING ANY
MOISTURE TO THE CWA UNTIL WED. THIS REFLECTED IN 12Z TIME HEIGHT
X-SECTIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS. I.E. GFS TAE WITH 0.60 PWAT AT 18Z
SAT DOWN TO 0.53 PWAT AT 12Z SUN..AND REMAINING THERE THRU 06Z MON
B4 SLOWLY INCREASING TO 0.64 PWAT AT 00Z TUES AND REMAINING THERE
THRU 06Z WED. WITH HIGH WELL EAST OF CWA...LOW AIRMASS FINALLY SHOWS
SOME RETURN FLOW AS PWATS RAPIDLY INCREASES TO 1.36 PWAT AT 00Z
THURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN U.S. INCLUDING THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...YIELDING FAIR
AND PLEASANT FALL WEATHER FOR THE LOCAL AREA. MODELS IN EXCELLENT
POP AND VERY GOOD TEMP AGREEMENT WITH GFS A LITTLE MILDER DAY 2/3.
GFS RH A LITTLE DRIER ON SUNDAY BUT NAM DRIER ON MONDAY. BASED ON
RECENT TRENDS...WENT WITH DRIER RH.

TONIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...A COOLER AIRMASS ALREADY
ON OUR DOORSTEP...ARRIVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. DESPITE THE DRIER
AIR AND CLEAR SKIES...THIS GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
UP A BIT AND NOT LET RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKE CONTROL AND REALLY
PLUMMET TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WILL STILL BE A COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S WELL INLAND (GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR TO AROUND 50 SE BIG BEND.

SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL RE-BUILD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD
SOUTH AND EAST TO ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DESPITE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...850MB TEMPS NEAR 10C WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO ONLY
CLIMB TO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WITH THE THE RIDGE
AXIS A BIT CLOSER AT NIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE
LATE AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES.
THUS...PREDAWN TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP WITH WIDESPREAD MID AND UPPER
40S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR
CLIMO WITH MID 70S NORTH TO AROUND 80 SOUTH UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON MONDAY...TO UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY).
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE EASTERN U.S.
INCLUDING THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...AFTER THAT THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE EURO MODELS...FUNDAMENTALLY IN THE WAY THEY
HANDLE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO
THE CENTRAL U.S. BY MID WEEK. THE EURO HAS CONSISTENTLY FORECAST
THIS SYSTEM TO ROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE MEAN TROUGH AND EXIT RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST... WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO DIG THE SYSTEM MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH MOVE IT MUCH MORE SLOWLY EASTWARD. THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE
SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FORECAST TOWARD THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...BECAUSE BOTH MODELS HAVE PERSISTED IN FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL LOOKING LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN
BY THURSDAY. GIVEN THAT THE EURO HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT...AND THAT
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUED TO FAVOR MORE OF A EURO TYPE
SOLUTION...WILL LEAN HEAVILY TOWARD THE EURO FORECAST...AND GO WITH
A MUCH LESS CLOUDY FORECAST WITH LESS WIND THAN THE GFS WOULD IMPLY
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT A LITTLE BELOW
CLIMO AND SHOULD GRADUALLY TREND UPWARD TO NEAR CLIMO BY THE MIDDLE
TO END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AREA OF STRATOCU CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS E-SE
ACROSS THE GA TERMINALS AS THE CAROLINA SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT THE REGION. PREVAILING TO TEMPO MVFR CIGS AT KABY
AND KVLD SHOULD BECOME VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON. NLY WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, THEN DIMINISH TO LIGHT AFTER SUNSET. WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE LOWER LEVELS TONIGHT, DO NOT EXPECT ANY VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
AT 2 PM EDT...NEARSHORE SHOWED LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WITH OFFSHORE 10
TO 15 KNOTS AND 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS. AS THE ABOVE COLD FRONT EXITS
FURTHER E/SE OF THE FORECAST WATERS FROM NW-SE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO
BUILD SOUTH TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST WATERS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH AND INCREASE TO
CAUTIONARY LEVELS BY EVENING.

A PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND POSSIBLY SEAS IS EXPECTED
OFFSHORE AND SOME NEARSHORE AREAS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
FLOW BECOMES NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
REMAINING TO THE NORTH...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NEAR OR SLIGHT ABOVE
CAUTIONARY LEVEL WINDS AND OFFSHORE SEAS IS LIKELY INTO MONDAY OR
TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY WITH LOCAL WINDS
DECREASING AND LIKEWISE SHIFTING EWD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SWD ACROSS AL AND
THE FL PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. DURATIONS WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
FOUR HOURS TO MAINTAIN RED FLAG WARNING FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE
ZONES. DISPERSIONS WILL CLOSE TO CRITERIA AS WELL. FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, EXPECT AT LEAST FOUR HOURS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR
ALL FL ZONES, AND WILL UPGRADE THE CURRENT WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING. NO CONCERNS FOR OUR AL AND GA ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  49  75  47  77 /  0   0   0   0
PANAMA CITY  54  76  52  77 /  0   0   0   0
DOTHAN       47  73  47  75 /  0   0   0   0
ALBANY       48  73  47  75 /  0   0   0   0
VALDOSTA     49  74  46  77 /  0   0   0   0
CROSS CITY   50  76  49  80 /  0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...
     JACKSON...WASHINGTON.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...DIXIE...
     FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...
     JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...
     MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.

GM...SCA FOR GM765/770/775/ 02Z-15Z SUNDAY.

&&

AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...JAMSKI
PUBLIC/MARINE...BLOCK
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 18, 3:31 AM CDT, 10 hours 15 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
431 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2008

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-190900-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
431 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2008 /331 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DRIER AIR ARRIVING BEHIND A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH CRITICAL
LEVELS FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF THE RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR
THIS AREA.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TODAY WITH CAUTIONARY LEVEL
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL MARINE ZONES BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO FURTHER INCREASE TONIGHT AND APPROACH
ADVISORY LEVELS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

CAUTIONARY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE ON
MONDAY.

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. FIRE WEATHER WATCHES WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG
BEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

14-MROCZKA

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tallahassee, FL issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 18, 1:30 PM CDTSmall Craft AdvisoryTAE21 hr

Nearby

Red Flag Warnings in Florida, 2008Red Flag Warnings in Alabama, 2008Every red flag warning in 2008

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.