Red Flag Warning 86, NWS Tallahassee, FL

000 
WWUS82 KTAE 272350
RFWTAE

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
750 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR 
MOST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND DUE TO EXPECTED LONG DURATIONS OF
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT...

.DISCUSSION...THE DRY AIR COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
90 IN SOME AREAS...WILL LIKELY PRODUCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BASED ON
LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT. DIMINISHING
WINDS WILL RESULT IN LOWER DISPERSION LEVELS SUNDAY. AFTER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

FLZ016>019-026>029-282200-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0086.080928T1800Z-080928T2200Z/
GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-
750 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 6 PM EDT
SUNDAY...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING...OR ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR. DURATIONS OF
FOUR OR MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT WILL
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH.

$$

000 
WWUS82 KTAE 280849
RFWTAE

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
449 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
MOST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND DUE TO EXPECTED LONG DURATIONS OF
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT...

.DISCUSSION...THE DRY AIR COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
90 IN SOME AREAS...WILL LIKELY PRODUCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BASED ON LONG
DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT. HOWEVER...
DIMINISHING WINDS WILL RESULT IN LOWER DISPERSION LEVELS TODAY.
AFTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE WILL KEEP
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. 

FLZ016>019-026>029-282200-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0086.080928T1800Z-080928T2200Z/
GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-
449 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 6 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING...OR ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR. DURATIONS OF
FOUR OR MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT WILL
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH.

$$

000 
WWUS82 KTAE 281714
RFWTAE

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
114 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ALL OF THE 
FLORIDA BIG BEND DUE TO EXPECTED LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT...

.DISCUSSION...THE DRY AIR COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
90 IN SOME AREAS...WILL LIKELY PRODUCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS
ALL OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BASED ON LONG
DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT. HOWEVER...
DIMINISHING WINDS WILL RESULT IN LOWER DISPERSION LEVELS TODAY.

FLZ015-034-282200-
/O.EXA.KTAE.FW.W.0086.080928T1800Z-080928T2200Z/
FRANKLIN-DIXIE-
114 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON. 

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING...OR ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR. DURATIONS OF
FOUR OR MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT WILL
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH.

$$

FLZ016>019-026>029-282200-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0086.080928T1800Z-080928T2200Z/
GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-
114 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING...OR ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR. DURATIONS OF
FOUR OR MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT WILL
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH.

$$

BARRY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
225 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE BROAD SURFACE LOW
AND WEAKENING UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY AND
MOISTURE WILL MERGE WITH TS KYLE OVER AND JUST OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
WITH A SOUTHWESTWARD TRAILING SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH CUTTING
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. WE MAY SEE SOME STRATO
CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST GEORGIA ZONES THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY BUT THE AIRMASS IS TOO DRY ALOFT TO PRODUCE ANY
SHOWERS. FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE SHORT TERM MODELS
WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE ON A STALLED FRONT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GULF. THE GFS CLOSES OFF A LOW SUNDAY NIGHT JUST NORTH
OF THE YUKATAN AND TRACKS IT NORTHEAST WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE GFS
SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE AND QPF OVER OUR SE BIG BEND BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE NAM SOLUTION DOES NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE LOW DEVELOPMENT...IT IS A BIT MORE BULLISH ON BRINGING THE DEEP
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR ENTIRE BIG BEND INTO SOUTH GEORGIA
BURNING THIS SAME TIME. WILL BREAKOUT THE SE BIG BEND AND SHOW JUST
A SLIGHT POP FOR MONDAY INCREASING TO CHANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL WHILE MIN TEMPS CONTINUE TO
BE BELOW CLIMO.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS DEPICT AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND A RIDGE OUT WEST. SIMILAR TO THE PAST
FEW MODEL RUNS...IT APPEARS THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE AND DRY
COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY
COULD LEAD TO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND. DRY AIR WILL PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED CU MAY SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA BY LATE AFTERNOON...FROM SOME MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH AWAY FROM OUR AREA...SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR
CALM TONIGHT AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT
MIST OR FOG WILL DEVELOP IN AND AROUND THE SWAMPY AREAS OF THE
EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA BEFORE SUNRISE
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL WATERS. CONDITIONS MAY ELEVATE TO SCEC DURING THAT TIME
BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW I
WILL FORECAST BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA FOR NOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE DRY AIR COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
90 IN SOME AREAS...WILL LIKELY PRODUCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BASED ON
LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT. DIMINISHING
WINDS WILL RESULT IN LOWER DISPERSION LEVELS SUNDAY. AFTER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  55 90 61 89 65/ 0  0  0 10 10
PANAMA CITY  66 87 68 88 69/ 0  0  0 10 10
DOTHAN       60 86 64 89 65/ 0  0  0 10 10
ALBANY       58 90 63 88 66/ 0  0  0 10 10
VALDOSTA     56 90 61 89 65/ 0  0  0 10 10
CROSS CITY   56 89 62 89 68/ 0  0  0 20 40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL ZONES.
GA...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     ALL ZONES.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM EDT UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
GADSDEN...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...
LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA.
GM...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...DUVAL
LONG TERM...GIBBS
REST OF DISCUSSION...BARRY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
342 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-280745-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
342 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008 /242 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRES
TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS UNLIKELY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

FOURNIER