Red Flag Warning 83, NWS Tallahassee, FL

000 
WWUS82 KTAE 250007
RFWTAE

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
807 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2008

...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND EXCEPT
LAFAYETTE AND DIXIE COUNTIES FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND HIGH
DISPERSION INDICES...

...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH...AND KBDI VALUES IN EXCESS OF 500...

...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...BIG BEND AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA DUE TO LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND HIGH DISPERSION INDICES...

.DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
TRI-STATE REGION...AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DECREASE...DISPERSION INDICES WILL
REMAIN HIGH. ALSO...KBDI VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 500 ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.

FLZ007-009>018-026>028-251130-
/O.EXP.KTAE.FW.W.0082.000000T0000Z-080925T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0083.080925T1700Z-080925T2200Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.A.0071.080926T1800Z-080926T2200Z/
INLAND WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-
GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-
807 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2008 /707 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2008/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EDT /12 PM CDT/
TO 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THURSDAY...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR TODAY...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A RED FLAG WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EDT /12 PM CDT/ TO 6 PM EDT /5 PM
CDT/ THURSDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THE COMBINATION OF
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ENHANCE
FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER  FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

$$

FLZ019-251130-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0083.080925T1700Z-080925T2200Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.A.0071.080926T1800Z-080926T2200Z/
MADISON-
807 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EDT
THURSDAY...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EDT
THURSDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. 

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THE COMBINATION OF
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ENHANCE
FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

$$

ALZ065>069-251130-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.A.0070.080925T1800Z-080925T2200Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.A.0071.080926T1800Z-080926T2200Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-
707 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2008

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED
FLAG WARNINGS.

$$

FLZ029-034-251130-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.A.0071.080926T1800Z-080926T2200Z/
LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-
807 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2008

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

$$

JAMSKI

000 
WWUS82 KTAE 250724
RFWTAE

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
324 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2008

...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EDT /NOON CDT/
TO 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF THE EASTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND DUE TO EXPECTED
LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT OR BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS
COMBINED WITH HIGH DISPERSION INDICES...

...RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 5 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA DUE TO EXPECTED 1 TO 2 
HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT OR JUST BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS
COMBINED WITH SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AND KBDI VALUES ABOVE
500...

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED THIS AFTERNOON FOR MADISON 
AND TAYLOR COUNTIES IN THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND...

...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS CANCELLED FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE 
EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND...

.DISCUSSION...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO THE FORECAST AREA
AROUND LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CAROLINA COASTLINE. THIS DRIER IS
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO RESULT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS BEING
ACHIEVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND NORTHERN
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY CUT BACK ON
AFTERNOON MIXING OVER THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND AND CRITICAL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS NO LONGER EXPECTED OVER THIS AREA. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FIRE WEATHER
WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS UNDER WARNING
TODAY.

FLZ019-028-250830-
/O.CAN.KTAE.FW.W.0083.080925T1700Z-080925T2200Z/
/O.CAN.KTAE.FW.A.0071.080926T1800Z-080926T2200Z/
MADISON-TAYLOR-
324 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS CANCELLED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT AFTERNOON HEATING AND CRITICAL LEVELS OF 
RELATIVE HUMIDITY ARE NO LONGER ANTICIPATED.

$$

FLZ029-034-250830-
/O.CAN.KTAE.FW.A.0071.080926T1800Z-080926T2200Z/
LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-
324 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2008

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS CANCELLED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS CANCELLED THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS CRITICAL LEVELS OF
RELATIVE HUMIDITY ARE NO LONGER ANTICIPATED.

$$

ALZ065>069-252015-
/O.UPG.KTAE.FW.A.0070.080925T1800Z-080925T2200Z/
/O.EXB.KTAE.FW.W.0083.080925T1800Z-080925T2200Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.A.0071.080926T1800Z-080926T2200Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-
224 AM CDT THU SEP 25 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 5 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A RED
FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 5 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO EXPECTED RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 30
PERCENT COMBINED WITH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AND KBDI VALUES ABOVE
500.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
ANTICIPATED RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT COMBINED
WITH AFTERNOON WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AND KBDI VALUES ABOVE 500.


A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND HIGH KBDI VALUES WILL ENHANCE 
FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED
FLAG WARNINGS.

$$

FLZ007-009>018-026-027-252015-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0083.080925T1700Z-080925T2200Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.A.0071.080926T1800Z-080926T2200Z/
INLAND WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-
GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-
324 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2008 /224 AM CDT THU SEP 25 2008/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EDT /NOON CDT/ TO
6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EDT /NOON CDT/ TO
6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO EXPECTED DURATIONS OF
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT OR BELOW 35 PERCENT COMBINED WITH DISPERSION
INDICES AT OR ABOVE 75.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
ANTICIPATED DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT OR BELOW 35 PERCENT
COMBINED WITH HIGH DISPERSION INDICES.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THE COMBINATION OF
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND HIGH DISPERSION INDICES WILL ENHANCE
FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER  FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

$$

14-MROCZKA

000 
WWUS82 KTAE 251926
RFWTAE

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
326 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2008

...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/
THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND DUE TO EXPECTED LONG DURATIONS OF
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS COMBINED WITH HIGH
DISPERSION INDICES...

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA DUE TO EXPECTED 1 TO 2
HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS COMBINED WITH
SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AND KBDI VALUES ABOVE 500...

...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EDT /NOON CDT/
TO 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF THE EASTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND DUE TO EXPECTED
LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.

...RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM CDT UNTIL 5 PM CDT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA DUE TO EXPECTED 1
TO 2 HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS COMBINED
WITH SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AND KBDI VALUES ABOVE 500...

.DISCUSSION...A DRY AIRMASS ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND MOST
OF NORTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH THAT WAS IN
PLACE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING.


FLZ007-009>018-026-027-252200-
/O.UPG.KTAE.FW.A.0071.080926T1800Z-080926T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KTAE.FW.W.0084.080926T1800Z-080926T2200Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0083.000000T0000Z-080925T2200Z/
INLAND WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-
GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-
326 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2008 /226 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2008/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/
THIS AFTERNOON...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ TO 6 PM
EDT /5 PM CDT/ FRIDAY...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ TO 6 PM EDT /
5 PM CDT/ FRIDAY.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

ALZ065>069-252200-
/O.UPG.KTAE.FW.A.0071.080926T1800Z-080926T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KTAE.FW.W.0084.080926T1800Z-080926T2200Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0083.000000T0000Z-080925T2200Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-
226 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 5 PM CDT FRIDAY...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 5 PM CDT FRIDAY. 

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND HIGH KBDI VALUES WILL ENHANCE 
FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

BARRY

000 
WWUS82 KTAE 252206
RFWTAE

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
606 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2008

...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EDT /NOON CDT/ TO 6
PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND DUE TO EXPECTED LONG
DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT...

...RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM CDT UNTIL 5 PM CDT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA DUE TO EXPECTED
1 TO 2 HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 30 PERCENT COMBINED WITH
SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AND KBDI VALUES ABOVE 500...

.DISCUSSION...A DRY AIRMASS ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND
MUCH OF NORTHWEST FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
THAT WAS IN PLACE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING.

ALZ065>069-FLZ007-009>018-026-027-261130-
/O.EXP.KTAE.FW.W.0083.000000T0000Z-080925T2200Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0084.080926T1800Z-080926T2200Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-LIBERTY-
WAKULLA-
606 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2008 /506 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2008/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ TO
6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ FRIDAY...
...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR TODAY...

THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ TO 6 PM EDT /5
PM CDT/ FRIDAY.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

JAMSKI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
310 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
18Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY
COMPLEX BUT FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER
OF STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW IS CHARACTERIZED
BY RIDGING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST CANADA. THIS
RIDGING DIVES RAPIDLY INTO A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST WITH THE SHORTWAVE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. EVEN FURTHER DOWNSTREAM THE
FLOW BECOME A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER QUEBEC AND THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES. OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE CONSISTS OF A CLOSING OFF
UPPER LOW EAST OF THE CAROLINA COAST. FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO SUPPLY
PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR TO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS DRY AIR
COULD BE SEEN IN THIS MORNINGS KTLH SOUNDING PROFILE WITH A PW OF
ONLY 0.7 AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ABOVE 700 MB OF UP TO 45-50C.

AT THE SURFACE...FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN STRONG 1025-1030MB HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY
TO NEW ENGLAND AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
SEEING JUST ENOUGH INFLUX OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WITH THE NORTHEAST
FLOW FOR A CU FIELD TO SPREAD WEST FROM NORTHEAST FLORIDA INTO
PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL GA AND THE EASTERN FL BIG BEND. THESE
CU SHOULD FADE RAPIDLY TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
MAIN PLAYERS IN OUR WEATHER OVER THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE
EVOLUTION OF STACKED SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND ITS EXPECTED SLOW WEST AND
NORTHWEST MOTION OF THE NEXT 72 HOURS. GFS/ECMWF IN AGREEMENT THAT
OTHER THAN A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO AND THEN SOME POSSIBLE CLOUDS OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS BY LATER
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT...THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH RAIN CHANCES REMAINING VERY LOW.

CONTINUED FALL FEELING INTO TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE
SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DEEPEN INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FROM TO OUR NORTH
AND NORTHWEST WILL KEEP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RATHER TIGHT OVER OUR
AREA. JUST HOW LOW THE TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO FALL WILL DEPEND
SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW MUCH THE SURFACE WINDS STAYS UP OVERNIGHT. ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE MAV/MET/NAM/FWC SHOWING MINS WITHIN GENERALLY A
FEW DEGREES OF EACH OTHER CENTERED AROUND THE MID 50S BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY. INHERITED GRIDS FROM LAST NIGHT SHOWING A SIMILAR SCENARIO
WITH GENERALLY MIDDLE 50S INLAND AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG
THE COAST. SEE LITTLE REASON TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS
TIME AND WILL LEAVE THESE COOL TEMPS IN. SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THESE
READINGS ARE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMALS...HOWEVER UNDER THE RIGHT
CIRCUMSTANCES...THE AIRMASS IS CERTAINLY CAPABLE OF COOLING TO THESE
NUMBERS. IF THE WINDS STAY UP A FEW KNOTS HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED THEN MAY FIND INLAND AREAS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60. EITHER WAY A VERY COMFORTABLE EARLY MORNING UPCOMING.

ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT FALL DAY FOR THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO RETROGRADE BACK TO THE NORTHWEST REACHING THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ASSOCIATED LARGE UPPER LOW WILL ALSO
RETROGRADE WITH TIME. MAY SEE JUST ENOUGH LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTED BACK INTO OUR REGION WITH THIS FEATURE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF AN AFTERNOON CU FIELD ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THESE WILL BE ONLY FAIR WEATHER CU WITH
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF PRODUCING SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. HIGH TEMPS BUMP
UP A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S COMMON.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE MORE OF THE SAME AS THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW COME ASHORE AND PUSH NORTHWEST INTO THE
UPSTATE OF THE CAROLINAS. GFS/ECMWF STAY IN AGREEMENT OF THE BEST
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE JUST SCRAPING OUR FAR NORTHERN AREAS WITH
POSSIBLY SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANCE OF AN PRECIPITATION. AS THE SURFACE LOW COMES ASHORE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY RAPID WEAKENING WHICH SHOULD RELAX THE GRADIENT
OVER OUR REGION. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE...THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO
BE QUITE COOL AGAIN WITH WIDESPREAD MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S INLAND AND
LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST. FRIDAY WILL FIND SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S SOUTH AND LOWER
80S NORTH. MAV NUMBERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT ARE CONTINUING TO TRY AND
DIP TEMPS DOWN INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. THESE SEEMS ON THE LOW
SIDE WITH SYNOPTIC FLOW COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
ALONG WITH A SLOWLY MODIFYING AIRMASS. DECIDED TO BUMP UP THESE
NUMBERS BY SEVERAL DEGREES WITH GENERALLY UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60
INLAND AND IN THE 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WED.
THERE IS GENERALLY A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO
TONIGHT WITH RESPECT TO HOW THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR
HISPANIOLA...WILL IMPACT OUR AREA IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
RECOGNIZING THAT THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY...
ESPECIALLY SINCE WE ARE DEALING WITH THE INTERACTION OF TROPICAL AND
MID LATITUDE SYSTEMS...THIS FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE GENERAL TREND
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT WRAP AROUND CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA...AS DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN SOUTHWARD ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW. BY TUESDAY...BOTH MODELS SHOW A RETURN TO A MORE
SOUTHEAST FLOW REGIME AS AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE BEGIN
TO SPREAD NORTHWARD BACK TOWARD OUR AREA. A FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS
THE FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE TAIL END OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF BY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW TO HANDLE THIS
DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE GFS CONSIDERABLY FASTER IN BRINGING A LOW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY LATE TUESDAY...AND THEN TAKING IT
RAPIDLY UP THE EAST COAST...RESULTING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF DRIER AIR
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL START
TEMPERATURES OUT BELOW NORMAL AND GRADUALLY RETURN THEM TOWARD MORE
SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SUN.
JUST BARELY SCA CONDITIONS STILL BEING FELT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS WITH WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND SEAS STILL 6 TO 7 FEET WELL
AWAY FROM THE COAST. CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE EASTERN
MARINE LEGS. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE INTO THE EARLY
AND MIDDLE EVENING HOURS BEFORE PICKING BACK UP A BIT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME THESE WIND AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AND WILL ALLOW THE CURRENT
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE
BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN LOW
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS...WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CIRRUS AND NO OBSTRUCTIONS TO
VISIBILITY...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND.
MAIN CONCERN IS NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE MODERATE TO
BREEZY DURING REST OF AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS...THEN DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE TONIGHT.
ELEVATED WINDS AND DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL PRECLUDE ANY CHANCE OF
FOG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPROACHING SE BIG BEND...DISCONTINUED
RED FLAG WARNING FOR THREE COUNTIES THERE. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
DECREASE NEXT FEW DAYS...HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN LOW AND DISPERSIONS
HIGH ACROSS ACROSS SE ALA AND ALL OF FL EXCEPT ERN MOST BIG BEND. SO
WILL GO WITH WATCH SE ALA NEXT TWO AFTERNOONS...ALTHO THIS
BORDERLINE AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENUF FOR A WARNING ON THURSDAY.
FOR FLA...WARNING THURS EXCEPT LAFAYETTE AND DIXIE COUNTIES AND A
WATCH FOR ALL COUNTIES ON FRI AFTN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  56  84  56  85  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
PANAMA CITY  60  83  62  84  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
DOTHAN       54  82  56  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALBANY       54  82  56  82  58 /   0   0   0  10  10
VALDOSTA     56  81  56  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
CROSS CITY   58  82  57  84  60 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...HOUSTON.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...HOUSTON.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...HOUSTON.

GA...NONE.

FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...
     GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...
     LEON...LIBERTY...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM EDT /12 PM CDT/ TO 6 PM EDT /5 PM
     CDT/ THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...
     FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...
     JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...
     WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BAY...CALHOUN...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...
     HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...
     LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO
     APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM SUWANNEE
     RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...BLOCK
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...DUVAL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
516 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2008

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-251000-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
516 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2008 /416 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND
PANHANDLE...AND THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NORTHEAST WINDS OF
20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL PRODUCE SEAS AS HIGH AS 9 FEET WELL OFFSHORE
EARLY THIS MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BOTH SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THAT TIME. OVER LAND...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE
THE SPREAD OF ANY WILDFIRES TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

18-WOOL