Red Flag Warning 78, NWS Tallahassee, FL

000 
WWUS82 KTAE 200050
RFWTAE

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
850 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM EDT /11 AM CDT/ TO 8 PM
EDT /7 PM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR ALL OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND BIG BEND EXCEPT FOR FRANKLIN AND DIXIE COUNTIES FOR LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

.DISCUSSION...A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN THIS WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.

FLZ007-009>014-016>019-026>029-201130-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0078.080620T1700Z-080621T0000Z/
INLAND WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-GADSDEN-
LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-
850 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2008 /750 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EDT /12 PM CDT/
TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ FRIDAY...

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND REMAIN BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR ABOUT 4 HOURS. 

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ENHANCE FIRE
GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

FOURNIER

000 
WWUS82 KTAE 200858
RFWTAE

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
458 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM EDT /11 AM CDT/ TO 8 PM
EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND EXCEPT FOR FRANKLIN AND GULF COUNTIES DUE
TO EXPECTED LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35
PERCENT...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM CDT TO 6 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BELOW 30 PERCENT AND SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS AT 10 MPH...

.DISCUSSION...A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY
MOISTEN THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

FLZ014-201000-
/O.CAN.KTAE.FW.W.0078.080620T1700Z-080621T0000Z/
GULF-
358 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

$$

ALZ065>069-202300-
/O.EXB.KTAE.FW.W.0078.080620T1800Z-080620T2300Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-
358 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL.

$$

FLZ034-210000-
/O.EXA.KTAE.FW.W.0078.080620T1700Z-080621T0000Z/
DIXIE-
458 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
EDT THIS EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL.

$$

FLZ007-009>013-016>019-026>029-210000-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0078.080620T1700Z-080621T0000Z/
INLAND WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-
458 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2008 /358 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2008/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EDT /NOON CDT/
THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
240 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...A HOT AND DRY DAY IS WELL UNDER WAY ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO ADVECT DEEP LAYER DRY
AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS NW FLOW AND DRY AIR IS PINNING THE SEA
BREEZE NEAR THE COAST AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE SIGN
OF A CU FIELD DEVELOPING ANYWHERE BUT OVER THE EXTREME SE BIG BEND.
WITH THIS DRY AIR IN PLACE ALONG WITH VERY LOW CAPES AND PWATS...
EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO BE AT A VERY MINIMUM TODAY...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF MONTICELLO. OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...WITH A VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...WINDS
CONTINUE VERY LIGHT WITH THE SEA BREEZE BEGINNING TO FORM NEAR THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE DEEP LAYER NW FLOW WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CWA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE
MEAN TROF OVER THE SE U.S. GRADUALLY BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT FRIDAY
AND INTO SATURDAY. BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE NEXT IMPULSE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SHARPEN UP THE
MEAN TROF ONCE AGAIN...GIVING US A RETURN TO HIGHER POPS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...WITH VERY LITTLE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THE SEA BREEZE WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT
TIME IN GENERATING ANY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. THE
1000-700 MB MEAN LAYER VECTOR WIND FOR FRIDAY WILL STILL BE NW OR
TYPE 8...BUT IT APPEARS THAT CAPES AND PWATS WILL STILL BE TOO LOW
TO WARRANT POPS GREATER THAN 10 PERCENT. ON SATURDAY...THE MEAN FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE W-SW OR TYPE 4 AS THE DAY WEARS ON...WHICH WILL
DEFINITELY BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...CAPES AND PWATS WILL STILL BE QUITE LOW FOR TYPE 4
CLIMO...AND WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DELAYED UNTIL SAT NIGHT OR
SUN....WILL UNDERCUT REGIME POPS ABOUT 20 PERCENT OR SO ACROSS THE
BOARD. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE QUITE HOT ON FRIDAY ONCE AGAIN WITH
PLENTY ON INSOLATION...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH
OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO ONGOING ACTIVITY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE PWAT VALUES NEARING THE TWO INCH MARK DURING THIS FIRST 12
HOUR PERIOD. ON SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND SHOW
THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DRYING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. WE
WILL SHOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

MONDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DO BEGIN TO SHOW
THEIR DIFFERENCES...THEY CONTINUE TO DISPLAY THE PERSISTENT UPPER
PATTERN OVER THE STATES WITH RIDGING OUT WEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN STATES. TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...THE MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE SERN
REGION WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN AT TYPICALLY LIGHT SUMMERTIME
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A PERIOD OF INCREASED WINDS
AND SEAS WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LARGE
FIRE NEAR THE TALLAHASSEE AIRPORT MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF MVFR
VSBY/CIGS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MVFR VSBY/CIGS POSSIBLE AT KVLD IN
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL
SITES EXCEPT AT PFN AND TLH WHEN THE SEA BREEZE KICKS IN FROM LATE
MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WILL UPGRADE THE FIRE WX WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING
ON FRIDAY FOR ALL OF THE FL COUNTIES EXCEPT FOR DIXIE AND FRANKLIN.
NO CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  62  97  68  94  71 /  05  10  10  40  30
PANAMA CITY  66  94  74  91  74 /  05  10  10  30  40
DOTHAN       61  97  70  93  70 /  05  10  10  30  40
ALBANY       61  98  69  93  69 /  05  10  10  30  30
VALDOSTA     64  97  67  93  70 /  10  10  10  30  30
CROSS CITY   65  94  69  93  71 /  10  10  10  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING ALL ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.
     RED FLAG WARNING FRI AFTN ALL ZONES EXCEPT FRANKLIN AND
     DIXIE.

GM...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC/MARINE...GOULD
AVIATION/FIRE WX...BARRY
LONG TERM...GIBBS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
535 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2008

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-201000-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
535 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2008 /435 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A LATE SEASON COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA. IN ITS WAKE...DRIER AIR, MID
90S TEMPERATURES AND LOW CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE ON TAP TODAY AND
FRIDAY.

THE NOTICEABLY DRIER AIRMASS..ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND AREAS...WILL
FAVOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRES SHOULD ANY OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FRIDAY WILL BE HOT AND DRY. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASES ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES THE
REGION. NEXT WEEK...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL
LEVELS ON MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE
NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

12-WATSON