Red Flag Warning 75, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
313 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2008

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT)
THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WEAKENING IN THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW
THE TWO TUTT CELLS/UPPER LOWS THAT ARE SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND OVER
THE BAHAMAS TO LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...THE MODELS SHOW
THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA SHIFTING SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLIGHTLY COME DOWN TOWARD THE LOWER 90S BY
TUESDAY WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

THE MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW (1000-700MB) ON MONDAY WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST. WITH THIS FLOW IN PLACE...THE BEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE/WESTERN BIG BEND AREAS. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWER COVERAGE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST.

ON TUESDAY...THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
UPPER LOWS (TROUGHS) APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND. PROVIDED THE
INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...WE WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS
(50) THROUGH THE PERIOD DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
MODELS (GFS...ECWMF...NAM...AND DGEX) CONTINUE TO SHOW A TREND
TOWARDS A REDUCTION IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
THE BREAKDOWN IS IN RESPONSE TO THE RETROGRESSION OF THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN LONG WAVE BACK WEST TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC BY SUNDAY.
TWO STRONG SHORTWAVES DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA DURING
THIS TRANSITION. THE FIRST WAVE MIGRATES EAST AND ENDS UP
REINFORCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE SECOND WAVE SETTLES OVER THE WEST
COAST. THE NET EFFECT IS TO NUDGE THE VERY HOT SOUTHEAST U.S. RIDGE
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. A TUTT
LOW...NOW LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL MEANDER WESTWARD ACROSS
FLORIDA AND BRING A SWATH OF MOISTURE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY
TUESDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR JUST AS THE HOT DRY SOUTHEAST U.S. RIDGE
BEGINS ITS NUDGE WESTWARD. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INCREASED MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN A MUCH MORE ACTIVE SEA BREEZE REGIME THROUGH MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL
GIVE WAY TO INCREASED SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
PWATS PRETTY JUMP UP ABOVE 1.70 INCH. PRECIP WATER EXCEEDS 2.00
INCHES AND LIFTED INDICES RAMP UP TO TO -6 TO -7 RANGE BEGINNING ON
THURSDAY. IF THE MODELS ARE RIGHT...THIS WILL BRING WELCOME RELIEF
FROM THE EXTREME HEAT AND AT LEAST A MORE OPTIMISTIC CHANCE FOR
SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE THROUGH THE
WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GOM. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN PREVAIL OVER THE CWA. DELAYED
SEA BREEZE WILL KICK LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER
PANAMA CITY AREA...MOVING INLAND REACHING SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA BY EARLY EVENING.SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
FRONT. HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL STILL BE LIMITED DUE TO STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. WITH HIGH DEW POINTS...ONSHORE COASTAL FLOW
AND NEAR CALM WINDS 08Z-12Z...MVFR VSBYS/CIGS A GOOD BET AGAIN
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM APALACHICOLA TO
VALDOSTA.

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO
MONDAY SUPPRESSING MOST PRECIPITATION AND MAINTAINING HOT
TEMPERATURES. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PREVAIL AND A
SOUTHWEST SEA BREEZE WILL BRING MOIST GULF AIR INLAND AS FAR AS
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AND
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AS THE
PERSISTENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN AND
RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO STRENGTHENS. WITH AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  72  93  70  91  70 /  10  30  20  40  20
PANAMA CITY  76  89  75  88  74 /  20  40  20  40  10
DOTHAN       72  95  73  92  71 /  10  30  20  30  30
ALBANY       73  98  72  93  69 /  10  20  20  30  30
VALDOSTA     71  95  69  92  70 /  10  20  20  40  30
CROSS CITY   70  93  70  91  69 /  20  20  20  50  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

GIBBS/LANIER/BLOCK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
527 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2008

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-091000-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
527 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2008 /427 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES OVER INLAND AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS APPROACHING 105 DEGREES.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...A FEW STORMS
MAY BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SEA BREEZE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE EARLY IN THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL ALSO LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG EACH AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

CAMP