Red Flag Warning 73, NWS Tallahassee, FL

000 
WWUS82 KTAE 281947
RFWTAE

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
347 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND DUE TO
EXPECTED LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT...

.DISCUSSION...A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WILL ONCE
AGAIN PRODUCE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES JUST BELOW
CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN BIG
BEND. ALTHOUGH THE MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE HIGH...VERY LOW
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL KEEP THE DISPERSION INDICES QUITE LOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY.

FLZ018-019-028-029-034-282300-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0073.000000T0000Z-080528T2300Z/
JEFFERSON-MADISON-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-
347 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ENHANCE FIRE
GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

WOODRUM/GOREE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
323 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2008

.SYNOPSIS...THE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE A TROUGH OFF
THE W COAST WITH A LOW SPINNING OVER CA AND ANOTHER OVER THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS. ANOTHER TROUGH IS MOVING SEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A BROAD AREA OF RIDGING EXISTS ACROSS THE
SRN STATES. HOWEVER, THIS RIDGE IS PRETTY DIRTY WITH A GENERAL
WEAKNESS IN ITS CENTER OVER THE TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS. AT THE
SURFACE, THE BERMUDA HIGH IS IN PLACE AND IS RIDGING WWD ALONG THE
GULF COAST. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MUCH OF
THE NRN TIER OS STATES. THIS AIRMASS IS BEGINNING TO PUSH A FRONT
SWD INTO DIXIE. AS OF 07Z, THE FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES WWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRI.
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AND EVEN STRENGTHEN/BUILD EWD TOWARD THE END OF THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD. IN THE INTERIM, SOME OF THAT SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIRTYING UP
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL SLIP SEWD TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA. IN
ADDITION, THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SWD AS WELL, REACHING OUR
FORECAST AREA ON THU WHERE IT WILL BECOME RATHER DIFFUSE. LOOKING AT
TODAY, THE EXISTING POP FORECAST WAS MODIFIED ONLY SLIGHTLY WITH A
40 POP FOR OUR EXTREME NWRN ZONES TAPERING TO AROUND 20 ALONG THE N
FL BORDER. CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LINGER INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. ON THU, WITH THE DYING FRONT IN THE AREA, WE
BROADENED THE AREA OF CHANCE POPS DOWN INTO FL AND EXPANDED THE 40
POP AREA A BIT AS WELL. BY FRI, THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY WILL NO LONGER
EXIST AND 591 DM HEIGHTS WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL PUSH
TEMPS TOWARD THE MID 90S IN THE HOTTER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
POPS ON FRI ARE RESTRICTED TO POINTS FROM TLH WWD ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND INTO SE AL AND EXTREME SW GA, MAINLY DUE TO THE SEA
BREEZE.

.LONG TERM...FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUE.
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH THE SEA
BREEZES SETTING UP IN THE LATE MORNINGS AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA
BREEZES...THINGS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE ALL
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE WEAKENING AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA.
THE MODELS DO BEGIN TO DIVERGE QUITE A BIT WITH RESPECT TO THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY GOING INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST NORTH
OF OUR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SUN.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BE FOUND EACH AFTERNOON WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE...A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD WITH MVFR VSBYS
AROUND THE KVLD (5SM) TERMINAL BY DAYBREAK. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR THE KDHN AND KABY TERMINALS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH.
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA...THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LOOKING FOR 4-HR DURATIONS OF RH BELOW 35 PERCNET
TODAY FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF THE ERN FL BIG BEND. A WARNING WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  91  66  92  70  93 /  10  10  30  20  20
PANAMA CITY  87  70  89  73  89 /  10  10  30  10  20
DOTHAN       89  68  88  70  92 /  30  30  40  20  20
ALBANY       91  68  89  70  94 /  30  30  40  20  10
VALDOSTA     92  66  91  67  93 /  10  10  30  10  10
CROSS CITY   91  64  92  68  93 /  00  00  20  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING 17-23Z TODAY FLZ018-019-028-029-034.
GM...NONE.

&&

AVIATION/LONG TERM...GIBBS
REST OF DISCUSSION...WOOL