Red Flag Warning 20, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1000 AM EST SAT FEB 16 2008

.DISCUSSION...
THE 13 UTC REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1024 MB HIGH
CENTERED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GA COAST...A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS NORTH GA AND AL...AND A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
(ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS) OVER TX. LOCAL RADARS
SHOWED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OVER SOUTHWEST AL...AND WE EXPECT
MOST OF THIS RAIN TO EITHER DISSIPATE OR MOVE JUST NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE
IS ON TRACK AND ONLY A MINOR UPDATES WERE MADE TO REFLECT RECENT
OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE TAF PERIOD. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL TRANSLATE WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
EAST OR SOUTHEAST. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA AND VSBY REDUCTIONS IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...BARRY
REST OF DISCUSSION...FOURNIER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
408 AM EST SAT FEB 16 2008

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-171100-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
408 AM EST SAT FEB 16 2008 /308 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A FAIR AND WARM DAY
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 70S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL HEAD
EASTWARD TODAY BEFORE TURNING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THEN NORTH-
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...ULTIMATELY REACHING THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT NEAR THE
REGION LATE ON SUNDAY...WITH A POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF IT. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WHILE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE WEAKENING
AS THE SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ANY REMAINING SHOWERS
AND STORMS SHOULD END ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY...BUT ACTIVATION MAY
BE REQUESTED ON SUNDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

17-GOULD