Red Flag Warning 117, NWS Tallahassee, FL

000 
WWUS82 KTAE 262325
RFWTAE

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
625 PM EST WED NOV 26 2008

...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN FLORIDA 
BIG BEND THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO EXPECTED LONG DURATIONS OF LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND HIGH DISPERSIONS...

.DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE STEADILY INCREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY BUT NOT BEFORE THE EASTERN
BIG BEND EXPERIENCES LONG DURATIONS WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
DISPERSIONS WILL ALSO BE HIGH IN THIS REGION. THEREFORE...A RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND.

FLZ018-019-028-029-034-271230-
/O.EXP.KTAE.FW.W.0116.000000T0000Z-081126T2300Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0117.081127T1700Z-081127T2200Z/
JEFFERSON-MADISON-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-
625 PM EST WED NOV 26 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 5 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT
AND HIGH DISPERSIONS...

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR TODAY...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR TODAY. A RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

FLZ007>017-026-027-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-270030-
/O.EXP.KTAE.FW.W.0116.000000T0000Z-081126T2300Z/
INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-
CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
625 PM EST WED NOV 26 2008 /525 PM CST WED NOV 26 2008/

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

$$

12-WATSON

000 
WWUS82 KTAE 270959
RFWTAE

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
459 AM EST THU NOV 27 2008

...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN FLORIDA
BIG BEND THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO EXPECTED LONG DURATIONS OF LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND HIGH DISPERSIONS...

.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE RISING
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND
WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE LONG DURATIONS WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
BELOW 35 PERCENT. DISPERSIONS WILL RANGE FROM 55 TO 65 THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THIS AREA. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL DISMISS ANY CHANCE FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS. THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE WILL BE THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 

FLZ018-019-028-029-034-272200-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0117.081127T1700Z-081127T2200Z/
JEFFERSON-MADISON-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-
459 AM EST THU NOV 27 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

000 
WWUS82 KTAE 271822
RFWTAE

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
122 PM EST THU NOV 27 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR EASTERN BIG BEND IS CANCELLED...


FLZ018-019-028-029-034-271930-
/O.CAN.KTAE.FW.W.0117.000000T0000Z-081127T2200Z/
JEFFERSON-MADISON-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-
122 PM EST THU NOV 27 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

$$

CAMP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
154 PM EST WED NOV 26 2008

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...MEAN TROUGH REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...ALTHOUGH THE AXIS
HAS SHIFTED INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. CIRRUS CANOPY SPILLING OVER
THE UPSTREAM RIDGE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ATTM AND SHOULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. MAV GUIDANCE IS QUITE COLD
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WITH 26 FORECAST AT KTLH. WITH
THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...THIS SEEMS EXCESSIVELY LOW AND HAVE
GONE WITH CLOSER THE NAM/MET GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES.

THE TROUGH WILL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMING MORE ZONAL. SFC HIGH WILL STILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY SO
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS SERIES OF NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVES AND SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
COMBINE FOR A PERIOD OF WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA BY
SUNRISE. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH VERY SLOWLY
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL RIDE UP AND OVER THE BOUNDARY PROVIDING LIKELY COVERAGE OF
RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST
FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. FRONT WILL ONLY MAKE SLOW
PROGRESS FRIDAY NIGHT SO WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHER POPS.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
A VERY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE STATES. THE
ECMWF/GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A VERY BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
AND RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL
PULSES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

AT THE SURFACE...THERE ARE QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH LEADS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. THE GFS BEGINS THE PERIOD WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LAYING OUT FROM EAST TO WEST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AND DEVELOPS A LOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER OUR
COASTAL WATERS. THE ECMWF ALSO INDICATES A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT INDICATES
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SFC LOW WILL BE POSITIONED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS
THE CWA.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GFS DEVELOPS ANOTHER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL GOM IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH OVER THE
REGION. IT SHOWS THIS SFC LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA WITH PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. THE ECMWF INDICATES A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CWA AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS
TIME. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS SHOW PLENTY OF DEEP
LAYER DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS A SFC HIGH SHIFTS
OVERHEAD. DUE TO THESES UNCERTAINTIES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WE WILL
LEAN MORE TOWARD CLIMO AND TAKE A BLEND BETWEEN THE MODELS. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND GRADUALLY THICKEN ACROSS
THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WILL UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND THURSDAY DUE TO LONG
DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.

&&

.MARINE...MINIMAL WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP OVER THE WESTERN LEGS THURSDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS EXPECTED TO REACH
CAUTIONARY LEVELS FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  33  71  49  71  57 /   0   0  10  50  50
PANAMA CITY  47  69  59  70  61 /   0   0  20  50  50
DOTHAN       34  70  51  68  53 /   0   0  30  60  50
ALBANY       33  69  47  68  53 /   0   0  20  60  50
VALDOSTA     31  69  46  68  55 /   0   0  10  50  50
CROSS CITY   32  71  46  72  56 /   0   0  10  30  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...HOUSTON.

GA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...CALHOUN...
     CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY...
     GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...
     MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...
     THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...WORTH.

FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL WALTON...
     DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND
     WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...
     MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.

     RED FLAG WARNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     DIXIE...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...MADISON...TAYLOR.

GM...NONE.
&&

CAMP/BARRY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
436 AM EST WED NOV 26 2008

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-271115-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
436 AM EST WED NOV 26 2008 /336 AM CST WED NOV 26 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
...A LIGHT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE
EASTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILDS SOUTHEAST AND OVER THE LOCAL AREA
THIS MORNING. SO EXPECT ANOTHER CHILLY START WITH PATCHY FROST
AND TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE COLDEST INLAND
LOCATIONS. A SMALL FIRE NEAR LAKE TALQUIN MAY GENERATE SMOKE
ACROSS THE WESTERN BIG BEND. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER DRY AND
SUNNY DAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. PRE-DAWN LOWS WILL
BEGIN TO MODERATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA
RIVER BUT WILL AGAIN HOVER AROUND FREEZING WITH PATCHY FROST EAST
OF THE RIVER.

THE DRY AIRMASS FAVORS THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRES TODAY...SHOULD ANY
OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A PLEASANT THANKSGIVING DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER 70S. THEREAFTER...THE
FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAGS A COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS BRINGS AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
DUE TO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS...IT IS TOO EARLY
TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE...SO ALL
INTERESTS ARE URGED TO LISTEN FOR THE LATEST UPDATES FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

BLOCK