Red Flag Warning 114, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Coffee County, AL, Dale County, AL, Geneva County, AL, Henry County, AL, Houston County, AL, Bay County, FL, Calhoun County, FL, Dixie County, FL, Franklin County, FL, Gadsden County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Holmes County, FL, Jackson County, FL, Jefferson County, FL, Lafayette County, FL, Leon County, FL, Madison County, FL, Taylor County, FL, Wakulla County, FL, Walton County, FL, Washington County, FL, Baker County, GA, Ben Hill County, GA, Berrien County, GA, Brooks County, GA, Calhoun County, GA, Clay County, GA, Colquitt County, GA, Cook County, GA, Decatur County, GA, Dougherty County, GA, Early County, GA, Grady County, GA, Irwin County, GA, Lanier County, GA, Lee County, GA, Lowndes County, GA, Miller County, GA, Mitchell County, GA, Quitman County, GA, Randolph County, GA, Seminole County, GA, Terrell County, GA, Thomas County, GA, Tift County, GA, Turner County, GA, Worth County, GA

000 
WWUS82 KTAE 211913
RFWTAE

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
213 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2008

...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST /5 PM
CST/ THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
FLORIDA BIG BEND DUE TO ONGOING LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT COMBINED WITH SURFACE WINDS OVER
15 MPH AND DISPERSION INDICES OVER 75...

...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/
THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA DUE TO A COMBINATION OF ONGOING LONG
DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT OR BELOW 25 PERCENT AND
STRONG SURFACE WINDS...

...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ALL OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...BIG BEND...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA DUE TO ANTICIPATED LONG
DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS...

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPLY A VERY DRY AIRMASS TO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. RED
FLAG CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE FELT AREA-WIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO WARM A
BIT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY
ALLOWING A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE RESULTING
EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW. AT THIS TIME CRITICAL DURATIONS OF LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
THIS MOISTURE INCREASE...HOWEVER THE SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED IN CASE THE MOISTURE RETURN TRENDS SLOWER.

FLZ007>019-026>029-034-212345-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0113.000000T0000Z-081121T2300Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0114.081122T1700Z-081122T2300Z/
INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-
CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-
213 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2008 /113 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2008/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/
THIS AFTERNOON...
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM EST /11 AM CST/
TO 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ SATURDAY...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO ONGOING LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE WINDS AND HIGH DISPERSION
INDICES.

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM EST /11 AM CST/
TO 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ SATURDAY DUE TO EXPECTED LONG DURATIONS OF
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

ALZ065>069-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-212345-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0113.000000T0000Z-081121T2200Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0114.081122T1700Z-081122T2200Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN-
TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY-
MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-DECATUR-
GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
213 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2008 /113 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2008/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/
THIS AFTERNOON...
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM EST /11 AM CST/
TO 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ SATURDAY...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO ONGOING LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE WINDS.

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM EST /11 AM CST/
TO 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ SATURDAY DUE TO EXPECTED LONG DURATIONS
OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT OR BELOW 25 PERCENT.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

14-MROCZKA

000 
WWUS82 KTAE 212305
RFWTAE

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
605 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2008

...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ALL OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...BIG BEND...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA DUE TO ANTICIPATED LONG
DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS...

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPLY A VERY DRY AIRMASS TO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. RED
FLAG CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE FELT AREA-WIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO WARM A
BIT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY
ALLOWING A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE RESULTING
EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW. AT THIS TIME CRITICAL DURATIONS OF LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
THIS MOISTURE INCREASE...HOWEVER THE SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED IN CASE THE MOISTURE RETURN TRENDS SLOWER.

FLZ007>019-026>029-034-221300-
/O.EXP.KTAE.FW.W.0113.000000T0000Z-081121T2300Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0114.081122T1700Z-081122T2300Z/
INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-
CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-
605 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2008 /505 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2008/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM EST /11 AM CST/
TO 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ SATURDAY...
...RED FLAG WARNING FOR FRIDAY HAS EXPIRED...

THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR FRIDAY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM EST /11 AM CST/ TO 6 PM
EST /5 PM CST/ SATURDAY.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

ALZ065>069-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-221300-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0114.081122T1700Z-081122T2200Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN-
TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY-
MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-DECATUR-
GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
605 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2008 /505 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2008/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM EST /11 AM CST/
TO 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ SATURDAY...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM EST /11 AM CST/
TO 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ SATURDAY DUE TO EXPECTED LONG DURATIONS OF
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT OR BELOW 25 PERCENT.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

BLOCK

000 
WWUS82 KTAE 220939
RFWTAE

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
439 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2008

...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL 
OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...BIG BEND...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... AND
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA DUE TO EXPECTED LONG
DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE
TO FUNNEL VERY DRY AIR INTO THE REGION TODAY...ALLOWING AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS ALL OF 
THE REGION FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS TODAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ON SUNDAY SHOULD PRECLUDE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
PARTS OF THE INTERIOR FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE MAY DROP
BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 1 TO 2 HOURS.


FLZ007>019-026>029-034-222300-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0114.081122T1700Z-081122T2300Z/
INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-
CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-
439 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2008 /339 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2008/

...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST /11 AM CST/
TODAY TO 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
MODERATE WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL.

$$

ALZ065>069-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-222200-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0114.081122T1700Z-081122T2200Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN-
TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY-
MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-DECATUR-
GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
439 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2008 /339 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2008/

...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST /11 AM CST/
TODAY TO 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
MODERATE WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL.

$$

17-GOULD

000 
WWUS82 KTAE 221922
RFWTAE

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
222 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2008

...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...BIG BEND...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... AND
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA DUE TO ONGOING LONG DURATIONS
OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH CONTINUES TO
DELIVER A SUPPLY OF VERY DRY AIR TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS VERY DRY AIR HAS ALLOWED AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO
DROP BELOW WELL BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION.
MID AFTERNOON READINGS ARE SHOWING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OVER
A WIDESPREAD AREA IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. EXPECT THESE
VALUES TO RISE BACK ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS TOWARD OR JUST AFTER
SUNSET AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP. A SLOW INCREASE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT AND DURING SUNDAY IS STILL EXPECTED TO
PRECLUDE RED FLAG CONDITIONS FROM BEING REACHED. HOWEVER...PARTS
OF THE INTERIOR FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE MAY STILL DROP
BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR A SHORT DURATION.

FLZ007>019-026>029-034-222300-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0114.000000T0000Z-081122T2300Z/
INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-
CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-
222 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2008 /122 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2008/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/
THIS AFTERNOON...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO ONGOING LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE 
HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE DROPPED DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS 
AND LOWER 20S ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO EXTREMELY
LOW DEWPOINT VALUES. EXPECT THESE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO
RISE BACK ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS TOWARD OR JUST AFTER SUNSET AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
MODERATE WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ENHANCE FIRE
GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

ALZ065>069-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-222200-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0114.000000T0000Z-081122T2200Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN-
TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY-
MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-DECATUR-
GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
222 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2008 /122 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2008/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/
THIS AFTERNOON...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO ONGOING LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT OR
BELOW 25 PERCENT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE DROPPED DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO EXTREMELY LOW
DEWPOINT VALUES. EXPECT THESE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO RISE
BACK ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS TOWARD OR JUST AFTER SUNSET AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
MODERATE WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ENHANCE FIRE
GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

14-MROCZKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
300 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2008

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HARD FREEZE WELL INLAND...

.SYNOPSIS...04 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATED AT 04 UTC ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA GULF COASTS AND FAR
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA BEFORE APPROACHING THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. A LARGE 1040 MB HIGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR ABERDEEN
SD. A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS ANALYZED RIGHT BEHIND THIS
FRONT WITH WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE EVEN AT THIS
LATE HOUR. DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ARE ANALYZED NEAR THE HIGH
CENTER.

THE 500 MB ANALYSIS FROM 00 UTC SHOWS AN OVERALL TROF PERSISTING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITHIN THIS TROF. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WAS
INDICATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY).
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS ENTIRELY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FIRST FIVE PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

TODAY...STRONG COLD AND DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL
RESULT IN A BREEZY AND COLD DAY ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 50S. WINDS SUSTAINING AROUND 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 25 WILL BE THE RULE BY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THESE WINDS...WILL
ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL ZONES TODAY.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL DROP TOWARD
THE MID SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS
TENNESSEE AND TAKE A POSITION OVER NORTHEAST TENNESSEE BY DAYBREAK
ON SATURDAY. THIS IS NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE SURFACE HIGH POSITION
FOR A HARD FREEZE IN OUR REGION. THOUGH COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
CONTINUING...GIVEN THAT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY NOT RELAX
ENOUGH FOR SURFACE WINDS TO GO CALM (THIS GRADIENT IS EASILY TIGHTER
THAN THE HARD FREEZE EVENT EARLIER THIS WEEK). THE GRADIENT IS
ESPECIALLY TIGHTER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. IT IS IN THESE AREAS
THAT A HARD FREEZE IS LESS LIKELY THAN AREAS TO THE NORTH...LIKE
AROUND ALBANY. IN ANY EVENT...THE PROBABILITY OF A FREEZE IS NEAR
100 PERCENT AT ALL INLAND ZONES...WHEREAS THE HARD FREEZE
PROBABILITIES ARE NOT NEAR AS HIGH.

THE MAV DOESNT INDICATE A HARD FREEZE ANYWHERE EXCEPT FOR ALBANY.
THE OLD MET GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE COOLER...AS IS THE NEW NAMMOS.
BASED ON THE PATTERN THAT IS PRESENT IN ALL THE MODELS...WILL TREND
A LITTLE ABOVE THE MAV GUIDANCE FROM US-84 SOUTHWARD...AND WILL STAY
NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE MAV GUIDANCE NORTH OF THIS LINE. THIS RESULTS
IN A MIN TEMP GRID THAT INDICATES A HARD FREEZE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
TIER ZONES. WHILE I DONT EXPLICITLY HAVE HARD FREEZING CONDITIONS
MENTIONED IN OUR FLORIDA ZONES ON THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...IM
ALREADY INHERITING A HARD FREEZE WATCH AND I DONT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO LOWER THIS WATCH IN FLORIDA. WILL UPDATE THE PRODUCT
ON THE 400 AM ISSUANCE TO MENTION SOME UNCERTAINTY AND LET THE DAY
SHIFT EVALUATE THE NEED TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING OR DISCONTINUE.

BELOW ARE SOME RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING...

TALLAHASSEE FL..........23 IN 2000
APALACHICOLA FL.........29 IN 1937
HEADLAND AL.............24 IN 2000
ALBANY GA...............22 IN 2000

SATURDAY...COOL DAY CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTHWARD. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 50S MOST SITES. IT WILL BE VERY DRY AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES
INTO MIDDLE GEORGIA. DEWPOINTS MAY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH
AFTERNOON MIXING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...AND WITH A GRADUALLY MODIFYING AIRMASS...IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP TOO LOW. IT LOOKS LIKE A SLAM
DUNK AGAIN FOR A NIGHT OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR GA/AL
ZONES. THE INLAND FL ZONES ALSO WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB
FREEZING TEMPERATURES. COASTAL COUNTIES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR JUST
ABOVE FREEZING. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF FROST IN THE FORECAST HERE
AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE GRADUALLY MOISTENING TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY...AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTION TURNS MAINLY
EASTERLY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE MID 60S UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY).
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN QUITE PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS WHICH IS BRINGING US THE SHOT OF COLD
AIR FOR THIS CURRENT WEEKEND...PUSHING QUICKLY OFF THE COASTLINE OF
THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO
QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE CWA WITH LITTLE FANFARE ON MON OR MON
NIGHT...AS THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NOW COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE RETURN FLOW MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. BASED ON THESE MODEL TRENDS... BELIEVE THAT OUR CURRENT
20 PERCENT POPS WILL MORE THAN SUFFICE FOR THIS COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. BEHIND THIS NEXT COLD FRONT...THE AIR MASS WILL STILL KEEP
OUR TEMPS BELOW CLIMO...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD AS THIS
WEEKENDS BLAST. THAT SAID...SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS COULD SEE A
LIGHT FREEZE AND/OR FROST ON WED AND THU MORNINGS AS THE NEXT RIDGE
CENTERS ITSELF NEAR THE CWA. THESE COLDER TEMPS ARE MORE EVIDENT IN
THE BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS...WHICH SHOULD GIVE SOMEWHAT OF A BETTER
SIGNAL THAN THE MEX ON DAYS 5-7 DUE TO THE INHERENT WEIGHTING OF
CLIMATOLOGY IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE THIS FAR OUT. THEREAFTER...THE
NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL NEXT FRIDAY OR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...AND WOULD LIKE TO HAVE A LOOK AT THE LATEST 00
UTC ECMWF RUN BEFORE MAKING A DECISION WHEN TO BEGIN POPS.

&&

.MARINE...IR SATELLITE SHOWS A ROPE CLOUD INDICATING THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT MOVING INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS AT 08 UTC. BEHIND THIS LINE...WINDS ARE IN THE SCA
CATEGORY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH THE
RIDGE EXPECTED TO PARK NORTH OF THE REGION...A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL
KEEP WINDS ELEVATED AT SCA LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
WEAKENING. AFTER THIS TIME...CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...WITH THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT POISED JUST TO OUR
NORTH...SOME VERY PATCHY AND LIGHT MVFR FOG HAS FORMED AT VLD AND
PFN...BUT EXPECT THIS TO BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS THE NW WINDS BEGIN
TO MIX THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE VERY QUICKLY. ALSO...A DECK
OF BKN SC/ST BETWEEN 4 AND 5 KFT HAS FORMED ALONG AND THE JUST OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF...SO SOME OF THE TAF LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A 2-4 HR PERIOD OF VFR CIGS BEFORE SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
AFTER SUNRISE... EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH INCREASINGLY
GUSTY N-NW WINDS AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET. AT THIS TIME...BELIEVE THE SFC WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY LLWS PROBLEMS TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXTREMELY DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND
COMBINE WITH GUSTY WINDS TO EASILY ALLOW US TO MEET RED FLAG
CRITERIA IN ALL THREE STATES TODAY. LESS WIND...BUT DRIER AIR ON
SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN LONG DURATIONS AND THE NEED FOR RED FLAG
WARNINGS IN ALL THREE STATES AGAIN. A GRADUAL MOISTENING TREND ON
SUNDAY LOOKS TO ELIMINATE ANY RED FLAG CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  57  27  59  30  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
PANAMA CITY  57  34  61  38  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
DOTHAN       53  27  58  29  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALBANY       55  24  57  26  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
VALDOSTA     58  28  57  29  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
CROSS CITY   61  26  63  31  68 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...
     HENRY...HOUSTON.

     HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...
     HOUSTON.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...
     HENRY...HOUSTON.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 4 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...HOUSTON.

GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...
     BERRIEN...BROOKS...CALHOUN...CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...
     DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY...GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...
     LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...
     SEMINOLE...TERRELL...THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...WORTH.

     HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...
     CALHOUN...CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...
     EARLY...GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...
     MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...
     THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...WORTH.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...
     CALHOUN...CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...
     EARLY...GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...
     MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...
     THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...WORTH.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12 PM TO 5 PM EST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...
     CALHOUN...CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...
     EARLY...GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...
     MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...
     THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...WORTH.

FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 5
     PM EST /4 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL WALTON...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...
     GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...
     JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...
     WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.

     HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL WALTON...
     DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND
     WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...
     MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON EST /11 AM CST/ TODAY TO 6 PM EST /5
     PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...
     CALHOUN...COASTAL WALTON...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...
     GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...
     LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...
     WASHINGTON.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12 PM EST /11 AM CST/ TO 6 PM EST /5 PM
     CST/ SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...
     COASTAL WALTON...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...
     HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...
     LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     SATURDAY FROM DESTIN TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER ENTRANCE OUT TO 60
     NAUTICAL MILES.

&&

LONG TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
REST OF DISCUSSION...GODSEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
628 PM EST THU NOV 20 2008

UPDATED TO ADD HARD FREEZE HEADLINE.

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-211100-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
628 PM EST THU NOV 20 2008 /528 PM CST THU NOV 20 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...HARD FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS INLAND AREAS...

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY WITH A MUCH
DRIER AND COLDER AIRMASS FILTERING IN ON BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.
AS A RESULT, A HARD FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL INLAND
AREAS FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS LOCAL WATERS ON FRIDAY DIMINISHING
TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE VERY DRY
AIRMASS WILL ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT AND SPREAD OF ANY WILDFIRES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.