Red Flag Warning 103, NWS Tallahassee, FL

000 
WWUS82 KTAE 291915
RFWTAE

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
315 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2008

...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/
THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA
BIG BEND DUE TO EXPECTED LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW
35 PERCENT...

...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EDT /12 PM CDT/
TO 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR ALL OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND DUE TO EXPECTED LONG DURATIONS OF
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT...

.DISCUSSION...A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON TODAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FLORIDA ZONES DUE TO LONG DURATIONS OF LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY. KBDI VALUES IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND LOWER WIND
SPEEDS IN SOUTH GEORGIA WILL PREVENT RED FLAG CRITERIA FROM BEING
REACHED. DISPERSIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES WILL REACH 35 PERCENT ACROSS THE
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
FRIDAY...DURATIONS WILL BE LIMITED.

FLZ007-009>019-026>029-034-300000-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0102.000000T0000Z-081029T2300Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0103.081030T1700Z-081030T2300Z/
INLAND WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-
GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-
DIXIE-
315 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2008 /215 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2008/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/
THIS EVENING...
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EDT /12 PM CDT/
TO 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THURSDAY...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

000 
WWUS82 KTAE 300013
RFWTAE

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
813 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR THIS WEDNESDAY EVENING...

...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EDT /12 PM CDT/
TO 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR ALL OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND DUE TO EXPECTED LONG DURATIONS OF
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT...

.DISCUSSION...A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FLORIDA ZONES DUE TO LONG
DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. KBDI VALUES IN SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND LOWER WIND SPEEDS IN SOUTH GEORGIA WILL PREVENT RED
FLAG CRITERIA FROM BEING REACHED. DISPERSIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES WILL REACH 35
PERCENT ACROSS THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE FRIDAY...DURATIONS WILL BE LIMITED.

FLZ007-009>019-026>029-034-300830-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0103.081030T1700Z-081030T2300Z/
INLAND WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-
GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-
DIXIE-
813 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2008 /713 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2008/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EDT /12 PM CDT/
TO 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THURSDAY...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EDT /12 PM CDT/ TO
7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THURSDAY. 

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL.

$$

BARRY

000 
WWUS82 KTAE 300846
RFWTAE

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
446 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2008

...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EDT /NOON CDT/
THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF THE
EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND DUE TO EXPECTED
LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT...

...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS ALL OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG
BEND DUE TO ANTICIPATED LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
COMBINED WITH HIGH DISPERSION INDICES...

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
TODAY WITH WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST. VERY DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR ALREADY IN PLACE WILL COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 TO PRODUCE A LONG
DURATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG
BEND AND MAY APPROACH 25 PERCENT DURING THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON HOURS
IN A FEW SPOTS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ALSO FALL BELOW 30
PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE WELL BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS
ACROSS GEORGIA AND KBDI VALUES ARE BELOW 500 ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA WHICH WILL PREVENT RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS THESE
AREAS. IT NOW APPEARS THE THE DRY AIRMASS WILL HOLD INTO FRIDAY
RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS THE AREA.
ONCE AGAIN LIGHT WINDS AND KBDI VALUES BELOW 500 WILL PREVENT RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.

FLZ007-009>019-026>029-034-302000-
/O.NEW.KTAE.FW.A.0088.081031T1700Z-081031T2300Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0103.081030T1700Z-081030T2300Z/
INLAND WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-
GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-
DIXIE-
446 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2008 /346 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2008/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EDT /NOON CDT/
THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE CONTINUES THE RED
FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EDT /NOON CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING. 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ALSO ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
ANTICIPATED LONG DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 75 PERCENT
COMBINED WITH HIGH DISPERSION INDICES.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED
FLAG WARNINGS.

$$

14-MROCZKA

000 
WWUS82 KTAE 301920
RFWTAE

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
320 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND FOR LOW RELATIVE 
HUMIDITY...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND POTENTIALLY HIGH DISPERSION VALUES...

.DISCUSSION...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME HEATING WILL
COMBINE WITH A DRY AIRMASS TO PRODUCE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN IF THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS
FRIDAY. HIGH DISPERSION VALUES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 

FLZ007-009>019-026>029-034-311130-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.W.0103.000000T0000Z-081030T2300Z/
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.A.0088.081031T1700Z-081031T2300Z/
INLAND WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-
GADSDEN-LEON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-
DIXIE-
320 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2008 /220 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2008/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/
THIS EVENING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN BELOW THE CRITICAL 35 PERCENT
LEVEL UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. IT IS EXPECTED
TO DROP NEAR 35 PERCENT AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS
STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL REMAIN BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR
4 OR MORE HOURS. DISPERSION VALUES ABOVE 75 ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. 

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

$$

FOURNIER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
205 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2008

.SYNOPSIS...WITH THE STRONG AND COLD SFC RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST...SFC WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO SLACKEN ACROSS THE
REGION...ALLOWING TEMPS TO BEGIN THEIR STEADY FALL UNDER THE CLEAR
SKIES. AS OF 11 PM EDT...SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS IN THE CWA HAVE
ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S (TALLAHASSEE...QUINCY...AND CROSS
CITY) WITH THE COLDEST TEMP OF 36 NOW REPORTED AT VALDOSTA. WITH
THESE VALUES ALREADY IN THE BOOKS BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THE CURRENT
FREEZE WARNING APPEARS TO BE IN VERY GOOD SHAPE...AND WILL LEAVE THE
TABLE BELOW IN FOR REFERENCE.

HERE ARE SOME CLIMATOLOGICAL STATISTICS REGARDING FREEZES AND RECORD
LOW TEMPS...

THIS MORNING (OCTOBER 29TH)
TALLAHASSEE...................31 SET IN 1987
APALACHICOLA..................41 SET IN 1976
PANAMA CITY 5N (COOP SITE)....36 SET IN 2001
HEADLAND AL...................32 SET IN 1952
ALBANY 3 SE (COOP SITE).......30 SET IN 1987

ALL TIME RECORD LOWS FOR OCTOBER
TALLAHASSEE...................30 SET IN 1973...1989 AND 1993
APALACHICOLA..................33 SET IN 1993
PANAMA CITY 5N (COOP SITE)....33 SET IN 1989
HEADLAND AL...................26 SET IN 2001
ALBANY 3 SE (COOP SITE).......28 SET IN 1989

AVERAGE FALL FIRST FREEZE                     PERIOD OF RECORD
TALLAHASSEE (AIRPORT).........NOVEMBER 19TH    1948 TO PRESENT
TALLAHASSEE (DOWNTOWN)........DECEMBER 6TH     1885 TO 1961
APALACHICOLA..................DECEMBER 14TH    1975 TO PRESENT
PANAMA CITY 5N................DECEMBER 10TH    1972 TO PRESENT
HEADLAND AL...................NOVEMBER 13TH    1950 TO PRESENT
ALBANY 3SE....................NOVEMBER 19TH    1902 TO PRESENT

OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...ALTHOUGH SCA CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER
BEING OBSERVED...DO EXPECT THE SCEC LEVEL (15 TO 20 KT) WINDS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE LEGS OVERNIGHT...AS THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE ABOVE MENTIONED SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS IT VERY SLOWLY SLIDES
E-NE TO A POSITION CENTERED NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH IT MAY INITIALLY WEAKEN BELOW 1030 MB TODAY AND
TONIGHT...IT IS PROGGED TO RE-BUILD TO BETWEEN 1030 AND 1035 MB ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE STEEP TROF DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL QUICKLY DE-AMPLIFY...AS THE POTENT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADS FURTHER NE INTO CANADA...LEAVING US WITH MORE
ZONAL FLOW AFTER TODAY. WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...BUT IT MAY BE SEVERAL MORE
DAYS BEFORE CLIMO LEVEL TEMPS RETURN. WE ARE STILL CONCERNED ABOUT
LOW TEMPS ONCE AGAIN FOR TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME...EXPECT LOWS TO
BE GENERALLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE BOARD. PARTS OF
THE INTERIOR SE FL BIG BEND MAY BRIEFLY REACH FREEZING...BUT WILL
CURRENTLY PLAN ON USING AREAS OF FROST OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
PATTERN TO BEGIN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A RATHER BAGGY
LOOK TO THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH VERY WEAK
TROUGHING OVERHEAD. ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGING WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST PROVIDING A
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW TO THE AREA. STILL SHOULD BE DRY TO START THIS
PERIOD WITH THE FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH KEEPING THE BEST
MOISTURE TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. GFS/ECMWF
BOTH INDICATING A PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. THIS ENERGY IS PROGGED TO REACH THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING SATURDAY AND CUT OFF OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. FROM THIS POINT ON THERE ARE TWO
SCHOOLS OF THOUGHT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS CUT-OFF ENERGY. THE GFS
IS INDICATING A DEEPER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WHICH HOLDS IN
THE VICINITY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A LESS
ORGANIZED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WHICH HAS A BRIEF STAY OVER
THE EASTERN GULF AND WHOSE INFLUENCE EXITS EAST BY THE END OF
SUNDAY. TO SOME DEGREE THIS FASTER AND WEAKER SCENARIO HAS SOME
SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST 00Z CANADIAN WHICH IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE
WITH ITS SOLUTION. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN PATTERN ALOFT THE
SURFACE PATTERNS ARE QUITE SIMILAR. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH SHOULD BE RE-ENFORCED BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS ANOTHER STRONG HIGH DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
WILL USE AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH THIS WEEKEND AND EXIT THE SYSTEM
NOT AS FAST AS THE ECMWF BUT FASTER THAN THE GFS. ALLOWING FOR THIS
SOMEWHAT SLOWER SOLUTION...WILL HAVE TO INTRODUCE SOME SLIGHT/CHANCE
POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY... MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM TIFTON TO BAINBRIDGE AND PANAMA CITY. UNDER
THIS SCENARIO THE GFS WOULD INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER Q-G
FORCING OVER THE EASTERN ZONES AND IS ALSO SHOWING SOME FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE THROUGH THE LOWER/MID-LEVELS. THIS
LIFT WOULD BE FED BY ABUNDANT ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTING WESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. THE RESULT WOULD
BE MAINLY SHALLOW AND FAST MOVING SHOWERS. FORECAST DETAILS AS TO
WHERE THIS MOISTURE/FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED ARE IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS
TIME WITH THE TIMING/EVOLUTION DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE GLOBAL MODELS.
WITH THIS IN MIND WILL AVOID DETAILS AND KEEP THE GRIDS RATHER
BROAD. ALL GUIDANCE HAS THE SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH STACKED RIDGING RETURNING TO MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS HIGH IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...
WINDS WILL BE NOTICEABLY LIGHTER ACROSS THE AREA THAN ON TUESDAY
WITH GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH AT ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH STEADILY TODAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN JUST TO THE NW OF THE WATERS...BUT THIS BREAK IN THE
RECENTLY TOUGH CONDITIONS FOR MARINERS WILL LIKELY BE SHORT
LIVED...AS THE SFC HIGH REBUILDS AND STRENGTHENS TO OUR NE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
CAUTIONARY TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE...RED FLAG
CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY CERTAIN ACROSS ALL OF THE FL BIG BEND AND
PANHANDLE TODAY AND THURSDAY...SO WILL UPGRADE THURSDAYS WATCH TO A
WARNING. OVER AL AND GA...ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL BE VERY LOW...LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  63  33  70  42  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
PANAMA CITY  63  39  72  47  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
DOTHAN       62  36  71  41  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALBANY       62  34  70  39  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
VALDOSTA     65  32  71  40  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
CROSS CITY   65  32  74  41  76 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING ALL ZONES.

GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING ALL ZONES.

FL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING ALL
     ZONES...EXCEPT IMMEDIATE COAST.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING ALONG
     THE COAST.

     RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON ALL ZONES.

     RED FLAG WARNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALL ZONES.

GM...NONE.

&&

AVIATION/FIRE WX/LONG TERM...MROCZKA
PUBLIC/MARINE...GOULD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
257 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2008

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-301100-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
257 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2008 /157 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS
MORNING ACROSS ALL AREAS EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...

...A FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING ALONG THE
COAST...

A COLD AND DRY AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LOW TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING MAY DROP TO BETWEEN 30 AND 32 DEGREES OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE TRI STATE AREA...BEFORE ONLY WARMING BACK UP TO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES
WILL BECOME COLD ONCE AGAIN...BUT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE BOARD...SO EXPECT AREAS OF FROST TO
BE OF GREATER CONCERN THAN A FREEZE OVER THE INTERIOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
AS IT BUILDS IN TO OUR NORTHEAST...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
EXPECTED. OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER...THE
FORECAST WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY COMPLEX. THE LONG RANGE MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A CUTOFF UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND...
BUT THEY DIFFER IN THEIR SOLUTIONS THEREAFTER. FOR NOW...WILL
SHOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FROM NW TO SE ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT THIS FORECAST WILL BE SUBJECT
TO CHANGE AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

17-GOULD