Alert archive / New York / Tornado Watches in 2008

Tornado Watch 936

November 15, 20084 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Nov 15, 2008, 2:56 PM EST for 4 states. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Nov 15, 2008, 2:56 PM EST (19:56 UTC)
Expired: Nov 15, 2008, 8:30 PM EST
In force: 6 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 1 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

All 35 counties

Berkshire County, MA, Bergen County, NJ, Essex County, NJ, Hudson County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Passaic County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Union County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Albany County, NY, Columbia County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Dutchess County, NY, Greene County, NY, Orange County, NY, Putnam County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Rockland County, NY, Saratoga County, NY, Schenectady County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Sullivan County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Westchester County, NY, Carbon County, PA, Lackawanna County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Luzerne County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Pike County, PA, Wayne County, PA

The radar

The Binghamton radar (KBGM), 126 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 30%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 10%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 20%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 10%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 60%

Warnings issued inside it

3 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 15, 4:15 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PHI	Berks, Bucks, Chester, Lehigh, Montgomery	60 min
Nov 15, 4:33 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PHI	Lehigh, Northampton	38 min
Nov 15, 7:39 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OKX	Putnam, Westchester	22 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 185 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 833 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 77 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 39 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 361 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000
WWUS20 KWNS 151957
SEL6  
SPC WW 151957
CTZ000-MAZ000-NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-160200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 936
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
255 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 

       PARTS OF WESTERN CONNECTICUT
       SMALL PART OF WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
       PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
       PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEW YORK
       PARTS OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 255 PM UNTIL
900 PM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
ALLENTOWN PENNSYLVANIA TO 45 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF PITTSFIELD
MASSACHUSETTS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 934...WW 935...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN INTENSITY ALONG/AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER ERN PA.  WITH STRONG
SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY STORMS EXPECTED TO BECOME LOCALLY
SEVERE REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON AS THEY TRACK NEWD IN A VERY STRONG
SHEAR PROFILE ENVIRONMENT.  LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE
ACCOMPANIED BY POSSIBLE TORNADOES GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.


...HALES

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 15, 6:15 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Berkshire, Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Middlesex, Worcester	2 hr
Nov 15, 6:55 PM EST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Bristol, Essex, Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Middlesex and 4 more	3 hr
Nov 15, 12:22 PM EST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester and 4 more	7 hr
Nov 15, 1:47 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Hunterdon, Morris, Passaic and 4 more	58 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in New York, 2008 Tornado Watches in New Jersey, 2008 Tornado Watches in Pennsylvania, 2008 Every tornado watch in 2008

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.