Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2008

Mesoscale Discussion 2113

August 18, 2008Eddy County, New Mexico; Culberson County, Reeves County, Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 18, 2008, 3:41 PM MDT for Eddy County, New Mexico; Culberson County, Reeves County, Texas. It was in force for 94 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 18, 2008, 3:41 PM MDT (21:41 UTC)
Expired: Aug 18, 2008, 5:15 PM MDT
In force: 94 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Eddy County, NM, Culberson County, TX, Reeves County, TX

The radar

The Holloman AFB radar (KHDX), 178 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Santa Teresa, NM (KEPZ), launched 12:00Z, 9.7 hours before the alert went out and 215 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 311 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -109 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1391 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 114 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 90 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 182141
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182141 
TXZ000-NMZ000-182315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2113
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0441 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS SE NM INTO SW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 182141Z - 182315Z

AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 
BUT...THE NEED FOR A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

LOWER THROUGH MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP.  BUT...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO/GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...BENEATH
WEAK MID-LEVEL COOLING...IS CONTRIBUTING TO A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS IS
OCCURRING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW...NOW
DIGGING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH
30-50 KT HIGH-LEVEL FLOW IS SUFFICIENT FOR MODERATE TO STRONG
MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION.  ISOLATED SUPERCELLS APPEAR POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE 00-02Z TIME FRAME...AND COULD AFFECT ROSWELL/ARTESIA/
CARLSBAD/PECOS AND PERHAPS THE FORT STOCKTON AREAS...BUT THE RISK
FOR LARGE HAIL/LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS PROBABLY WILL REMAIN HIGHEST
OVER SPARSELY POPULATED AREAS.

..KERR.. 08/18/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

33410535 33970506 33300446 32650423 31710361 31290308
30830314 30690406 31240446 31930482 32360506 32900546

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2008 Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2008 Every mesoscale discussion in 2008

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.