Alert archive / Michigan / Mesoscale Discussions in 2008
Mesoscale Discussion 2
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Dec 31, 2007, 10:28 PM EST for 4 counties in Indiana; 24 counties in Michigan; Fulton County, Williams County, Ohio. It was in force for 4 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Dec 31, 2007, 10:28 PM EST (03:28 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 1, 2008, 2:00 AM EST
- In force
- 4 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 30 counties
Elkhart County, IN, LaGrange County, IN, Saint Joseph County, IN, Steuben County, IN, Allegan County, MI, Barry County, MI, Berrien County, MI, Branch County, MI, Calhoun County, MI, Cass County, MI, Clinton County, MI, Eaton County, MI, Genesee County, MI, Hillsdale County, MI, Ingham County, MI, Ionia County, MI, Jackson County, MI, Kalamazoo County, MI, Lapeer County, MI, Lenawee County, MI, Livingston County, MI, Macomb County, MI, Oakland County, MI, Saint Joseph County, MI, Shiawassee County, MI, Van Buren County, MI, Washtenaw County, MI, Wayne County, MI, Fulton County, OH, Williams County, OH
The radar
The Grand Rapids radar (KGRR), 87 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 00:00Z, 3.5 hours before the alert went out and 165 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1619 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 75 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 89 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 160 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 ACUS11 KWNS 010328 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010328 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-010700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0002 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0928 PM CST MON DEC 31 2007 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 010328Z - 010700Z GRADUAL DEEPENING OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO...BEFORE SURFACE LOW BOTTOMS OUT/LEVELS OFF AROUND 1000-1002 MB AS IT APPROACHES WESTERN LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD THROUGH THE MIXED PHASE LAYER FAVORABLE FOR LARGE DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH...WITHIN A DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...THROUGH THE 01/06-09Z TIME FRAME. AS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CONTINUE TO SATURATE...A DEVELOPING BAND OF HEAVY SNOW APPEARS LIKELY BY/SHORTLY AFTER 06Z ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN...TOWARD THE MICHIGAN THUMB. THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SNOW RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE PROBABLE AS SYSTEM REACHES ITS PEAK INTENSITY. AND...THIS COULD AFFECT MUCH OF THE DETROIT METROPOLITAN AREA... THOUGH HEAVIEST SNOW TOTALS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ALONG AN AXIS TO THE WEST/NORTH OF THE CITY. ..KERR.. 01/01/2008 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS. ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR... 41788715 42268668 42598608 43228435 43158324 42668284 41478388 41468492 41548541 41618641
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 7:25 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Elkhart, Fulton, Jasper, Kosciusko, LaGrange, Lake and 8 more | 3 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2008Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2008Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2008Every mesoscale discussion in 2008
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.