Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
245 PM MDT SUN AUG 10 2008

.SYNOPSIS...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION
TODAY THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE SOUTH AROUND MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST CELL SO FAR WAS NEAR CAPITAL
REEF NATIONAL PARK...AND BRIEFLY SHOWED INDICATIONS OF ROTATION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE TOMORROW...BRINGING AN END TO
THE LATEST MONSOONAL SURGE. THE 12Z GFS KEEPS ANOTHER MONSOONAL
MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS A BIG CHANGE FROM THE 06/00Z RUNS. TRENDED
DOWNWARD WITH POPS IN THE EXTENDED. IF THIS RUN OF THE GFS REMAINS
CONSISTENT...POPS ARE TOO HIGH IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS FOR MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 04Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AREA WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
ERRATIC AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DEEP SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED EAST OF
UTAH FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER.
ISOLATED STORMS WILL STILL DEVELOP BUT WITH MUCH LESS LIGHTNING
COVERAGE AND RAINFALL AS WAS OBSERVED LAST WEEK. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL BE TRENDING DOWN WITH HAINES INDEX TRENDING UP.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...KRUSE
FIRE WEATHER...GIBSON
AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)