Wind Advisory 9, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1206 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2008

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA. AS A
DRYLINE PUSHES THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TOMORROW WINDS WILL
INCREASE AREA WIDE BEGINNING MID MORNING. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING TO 25-30KTS SUSTAINED BY NOON WITH GUSTS TO 40-45KTS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS WITH WINDS WINDS 20-25KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35-40KTS AT THE
REMAINING TAF SITES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ABATE AROUND SUNSET TO
THE 10-15KTS RANGE OVER ALL THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2008/

UPDATE...
GOT MOST OF THE REQUIRED CHANGES AND TWEAKS DONE ON THE EARLIER
UPDATE...SO CHANGES FOR THIS ROUND WILL BE MINIMAL. WILL CONTINUE
TO ADJUST HOURLY DEWPOINT AND TEMPERATURES GRIDS TO BETTER MATCH
CURRENT CONDITIONS. WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO SWING AROUND TO THE
SOUTH SO FAR THIS EVENING...BUT WILL GIVE THEM THE BENEFIT OF THE
DOUBT FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2008/

AVIATION...
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15KTS GUSTING TO 25KTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY ABATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS
WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH WIND SPEEDS
GENERALLY IN THE 5 TO 10KTS RANGE. AFTER MIDNIGHT WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA. AS A DRYLINE PUSHES THROUGH
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TOMORROW WINDS WILL INCREASE AREA WIDE
BEGINNING MID MORNING. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO
30KTS SUSTAINED BY NOON WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 45KTS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH WINDS
WINDS 20 TO 25KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 TO 40KTS AT THE REMAINING TAF
SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 512 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2008/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAN UP A FEW GRID ISSUES...WHICH DID HAVE SOME
EFFECT ON TEXT PRODUCTS AS WELL. IN ADDITION...GIVEN THE ALREADY
WARM TEMPERATURES AND THE DOWNSLOPE EXPECTED...WENT AHEAD AND
BOOSTED FORECAST HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ON FRIDAY AS WELL. RECORD
HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE 91 AT ABI AND 92 AT SJT...SO A DECENT BET THAT
THOSE RECORDS WILL BE BROKEN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2008/

SHORT TERM...
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BARELY NUDGES INTO CWA
THIS AFTERNOON. DRY LINE HAS PUSHED EASTWARD...TO THE EASTERN
BORDER OF CWA...DROPPING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 20S AND 30S. SURFACE
LOW OVER NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY WILL PUSH OFF EASTWARD THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PAN HANDLE FRI
AM. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS 850MB WINDS AT 30KTS OR GREATER ALIGN WITH
NICELY DOWN TO 700MB. SURFACE WINDS WILL START STRENGTHENING
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. DRYLINE STAYS AT THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
CWA...ALONG WITH A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND WARM
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS. THE FIRE DANGER WILL BE
CRITICAL. AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SURFACE HIGH APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY GIVING WAY TO LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS.

LONG TERM...
FOCUS FOR THE LONG-TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC SETUP. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO CARVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT ON
SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH ARE PROGGED TO DEEPEN FURTHER INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER LOW LIFTING
OUT ACROSS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

WITH THE SLOWER TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...WE ARE DELAYING THE ONSET
OF POPS UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. DRYLINE PROGGED TO SET UP TO OUR WEST ON
MONDAY. GIVEN THIS PATTERN SETUP...SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WILL LIKELY
LIFT OUT ACROSS OUR AREA...AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH.
THE STRONG LIFT...DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS...AND INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES PROGGED WITH THIS SYSTEM POINT
TOWARD SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL (WITH POSSIBILITY OF A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE) FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. PACIFIC FRONT/
DRYLINE PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE A LINGERING
POP THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...AS SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD CORE.

GOING WITH A DRY FORECAST DAYS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A DEAMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION ALONG WITH
DRY AIRMASSES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  50  92  47  72 /   0   0   0   0
SAN ANGELO  48  94  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
JUNCTION  43  94  53  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR BROWN-
CALLAHAN-COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-JONES-
KIMBLE-MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-SCHLEICHER-
SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM GREEN.

&&

99/99/15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
259 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2008

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-142000-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
259 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

EXPECT VERY CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. WATCH FOR AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AROUND
20 MPH TO HAVE GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. IN ADDITION...HIGH WINDS
TOMORROW WILL MAY REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY. LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM MAY INITIATE
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS UNCERTAIN...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SOMETIME
DURING THIS 48-HOUR WINDOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WE MAY NEED TO ACTIVATE OUR SPOTTERS SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

23/HUBER