Flash Flood Warning 13, NWS San Angelo, TX

000 
WGUS74 KSJT 291038
FFSSJT

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
537 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2008

TXC105-435-291230-
/O.CON.KSJT.FF.W.0013.000000T0000Z-080629T1230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CROCKETT TX-SUTTON TX-
537 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 AM CDT FOR
WESTERN SUTTON AND SOUTHEASTERN CROCKETT COUNTIES...

AT 531 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
SHOW A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL 
AND SOUTHEAST CROCKETT COUNTY. 

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH ARE LIKELY THROUGH 730 PM 
NEAR THE SOUTHERN CROCKETT COUNTY LINE. RADAR HAS ESTIMATED 3 TO 6 
INCHES OF RAINFALL FROM 25 MILES SOUTH OF OZONA TO 25 MILES 
SOUTHEAST OF OZONA. THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL RUNOFF AND PRODUCE 
FLASH FLOODING. 

BE ESPECIALLY CAREFUL ON RANCH ROAD 1573...HIGHWAY 163...SOUTH OF 
OZONA. FARM ROAD 1989 IN SOUTHWEST SUTTON COUNTY MAY HAVE FLOODED 
LOW WATER CROSSINGS...AS RADAR HAS ESTIMATED 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN 
THERE OVERNIGHT.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

LAT...LON 3035 10171 3036 10167 3039 10170 3053 10167
      3055 10165 3059 10166 3063 10166 3064 10167
      3069 10167 3067 10073 3029 10072 3028 10172
TIME...MOT...LOC 1037Z 180DEG 0KT 3036 10105

$$

04

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1156 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NEAR THE KSJT TAF SITE.
OTHER SITES ARE MAINLY CLEAR OF TSRA ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AFTER GUST FRONT BOUNDARIES MOVE THROUGH.
TOMORROW...NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT HEATING
TO RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 TOMORROW. HAVE
MAINLY GONE WITH VCTS AND/OR CB GROUPS IN THE TAFS TO COVER THIS
POSSIBILITY AS TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION OF ANY TSRA IS UNKNOWN AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008/

UPDATE...
HAVE SENT AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE REMOVING THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008/

UPDATE...
HAVE SENT AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE REFLECTING THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 1 AM FOR THE NORTHERN CWA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008/

SHORT TERM...
FIRST OF ALL...WITH THE NEW WATCH COMING OUT FOR THE NORTHERN BIG
COUNTRY...HAVE INCLUDED THE WATCH AND BUMPED UP POPS FOR THIS
EVENING. GIVEN THE TIMING...WENT AHEAD AND SENT THE NEW ZONE
PACKAGE FOR TONIGHT WITH THE WATCH INCLUDED.

STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS THE RED RIVER. BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SAG A LITTLE
MORE...PROBABLY INTO HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON HERE IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HOW FAR IT COMES AFTER THAT IS STILL A QUESTION...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE COLD FRONT LIKELY TO OVERTAKE IT THIS EVENING...DOES NOT
MAKE MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE. SHEAR IS POOR...BUT CAPE IS PLENTY GOOD
ENOUGH...SO EXPECT PULSY NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE UNTIL
TEMPERATURES CAN BEGIN TO COOL AFTER SUNSET. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
HIGH CHANCE POPS ANYWAY...SINCE COLD FRONT AND NEW OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES PUSHING INTO THE BIG COUNTRY LATER TONIGHT WILL LIKELY
KICK OFF MORE ACTIVITY.

MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO...WHICH HAS EVEN MANAGED TO HELP KICK OFF A FEW STORMS
AS FAR EAST AS THE WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY. FIRST LOOK AT THIS ACTIVITY
SEEMS TO SHOW THAT IT WANTS TO ROTATE NORTHWEST BACK AROUND THE
LOW...AND STAY MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY AND
WESTERN BIG COUNTRY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS OUT THERE THIS EVENING AS WELL.

BEST CHANCE OF STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA AND THEN BEGINS TO PULL UP STATIONARY. CHANCES PROBABLY A
LITTLE BETTER ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SO NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE THAN THE SOUTHERN HALF.

LONG TERM...
FAIRLY QUIET FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE AREA. BETTER NORTH AND
NORTHWEST FLOW OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE FLOW
PATTERN...CAN NOT RULE OUT A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR A NORTHWEST
FLOW TYPE OF EVENT OCCURRING AT SOME POINT...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN
WHEN OR IF IT OCCURS PRECLUDES MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  73  86  68  92 /  30  50  20  10
SAN ANGELO  73  89  67  92 /  20  40  30  20
JUNCTION  73  91  68  92 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
244 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-291945-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
244 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS WILL
MOVE SOUTH INTO THE BIG COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN MOVE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CONCHO
VALLEY AND HEARTLAND MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY...A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BRIEFLY
REACH SEVERE LEVELS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE LOCATED
ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY...A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BRIEFLY REACH
SEVERE LEVELS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREATS. ALSO...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON COUNTIES.