Tornado Warning 44, NWS Shreveport, LA

000 
WWUS54 KSHV 110021
SVSSHV

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
720 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

OKC089-110045-
/O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0044.000000T0000Z-080511T0045Z/
MCCURTAIN OK-
720 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN MCCURTAIN COUNTY...

AT 720 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF 
WATSON...OR ABOUT 24 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MENA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 
43 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  PLUNKETVILLE BY 725 PM CDT...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. RESIDENTS IN THE 
PATH OF THIS STORM SHOULD TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3451 9446 3424 9447 3449 9504 3451 9503
      3452 9501
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 300DEG 37KT 3438 9456

$$

15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
327 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET DAY SO FAR ACROSS THE CWA. CLOUD COVER HAS HELD TEMPS DOWN
BELOW THE LEVEL NEEDED TO BREAK THE LOW LEVEL CAP. HOWEVER...AS
A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS PANHANDLE MOVES A LITTLE CLOSER...THE CAP SHOULD BEGIN TO
ERODE. WILL BET ON A LINE FORMING AND BECOMING FAIRLY SOLID AS IT
REACHES SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA THIS EVENING.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS IN THESE AREAS...WHICH IS MUCH
HIGHER THAN MOS. SEVERE RISK STILL HIGH...SO CARRYING MENTION OF
SEVERE ALL OF THE CWA FOR THE EVENING HOURS AND IN THE EASTERN
ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK...MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD
BE EAST OF THE CWA. WEATHER ON MOTHERS DAY WILL BE PLEASANT AREA
WIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S MOST LOCATIONS AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND AMPLIFY EARLY ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING A TROUGH TO DIG DEEP INTO
THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO EFFECT
THE FORECAST AREA...BEGINNING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN BY TUESDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW DIGS INTO
WEST TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM COULD BE BE A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER FOR THE
REGION...AS WELL AS BRINGING A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
GFS IS SLOW KICKING THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE CENTRAL U.S. SO SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE ENDING OF THE EVENT. PRECIP COULD HANG IN
UNTIL LATE FRIDAY.

CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH BASED MVFR CIGS STILL HOLDING ON ACROSS MUCH OF E TX THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH BELIEVE THAT CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 21-24Z. WARM FRONT HAS WORKED N INTO THE NRN
SECTIONS OF SW AR AS WELL...WHICH WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SCT
STRONG/SVR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH
ENTERS THE SRN PLAINS. WHILE BKN VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
E TX/NW LA/SW AR DURING THE EVENING...SCT CIGS WILL BECOME MORE BKN
ACROSS SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL LA...ESPECIALLY AS SCT CONVECTION BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS E TX THIS EVENING. MAY SEE A THIN BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING ALONG THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
ACROSS SW AR/ERN TX/N LA...BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER S
BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. MAY ALSO SEE BRIEF LOW MVFR CIGS ACROSS
DEEP E TX PRIOR TO THE FROPA...BEFORE FRONT IS ABLE TO SCOUR THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OUT. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KTS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER
WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX DOWN WITH HEATING. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL REMAIN VFR...WITH ONLY SOME THIN CIRRUS
OVERSPREADING E TX/LA SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  77  52  84 /  70  10   0   0
MLU  60  76  50  80 /  60  10   0   0
DEQ  51  75  43  80 /  50  10   0   0
TXK  58  72  46  80 /  50  10   0   0
ELD  61  76  43  82 /  70  10   0   0
TYR  59  77  52  83 /  50   0   0   0
GGG  60  78  48  83 /  50   0   0   0
LFK  67  80  51  84 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

14/15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-111100-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
1200 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A DRY LINE...WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A WARM...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...AND THE
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK THAT STORMS WILL
BECOME SEVERE ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FOUR STATE
REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER...HAM RADIO OPERATOR...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY AND OVERNIGHT.