Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
312 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2008

.DISCUSSION...

WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TOUCH OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT MAINLY NORTH AND EAST. WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE WHICH WILL TURN WINDS TO NW IN THE MORNING. BUT THEY WILL
QUICKLY VEER TO EASTERLY FOR SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE A COOLER DAY
THAN THE FEW DAYS PRIOR TO THAT...BUT STILL QUITE MILD. STRONG
CLOSED LOW WILL SLIDE IN TO THE DESERT SW EARLY WEEK...AND WINDS
ALOFT WILL BECOME SW. WE WILL SEE MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE
W...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE
WHETHER THE CLOSED LOW WILL SLOW ENOUGH TO DELAY ONSET OF PRECIP
IN OUR CWA. WE ARE RAMPING UP TOWARD THE EVENT WITH LOW POPS
MONDAY...A LITTLE HIGHER MONDAY NIGHT...AND LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS
TUESDAY. BECAUSE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH LOW...WE WILL NOT DROP POPS
TIL WEDNESDAY. /17/

&&

.AVIATION...

SFC WINDS ARE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING.  LOOK FOR A WEAK LOW OVER TEXAS TO DEEPEN AND SWING EAST
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVERNIGHT.  BEST CHANCE FOR WEATHER
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS CLOSE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS SLOW TO BREAK AGAIN 14 TO 16Z AS SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST
AFTER SUNRISE AND THEN NORTHWEST BY LUNCH 10 TO 15 KTS...THEN
DIMINISHING BY SUNSET TOMORROW AND VEERING TO EAST OVERNIGHT. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  77  47  70 /  20   0   0   0
MLU  60  78  46  68 /  30   0   0   0
DEQ  49  68  40  66 /  20  10   0   0
TXK  57  72  45  67 /  20  10   0   0
ELD  59  75  41  68 /  30  10   0   0
TYR  57  75  48  71 /  10   0   0   0
GGG  58  77  45  70 /  10   0   0   0
LFK  61  82  48  74 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

17/24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2008

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-151200-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
1200 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND
CONFINED MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. HOWEVER...ISOLATED STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER...HAM RADIO OPERATOR...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL ACTIVATION...IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

17

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
637 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 PM     HAIL             8 E RINGOLD             34.23N 95.00W
03/13/2008  E1.25 INCH       MCCURTAIN          OK   PUBLIC

            QUARTER TO HALF-DOLLAR SIZED HAIL FELL AT A RESIDENCE.

&&

D. BUTTS