Severe Thunderstorm Warning 429, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
310 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008

.DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING THRU THE NERN
GULF HAS SHIFTED THE UPPER RIDGE TO CENTRAL OK.  THIS...ALONG W/THIS
MORNING/S OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...IS SHAVING A FEW DEGREES OFF EXPECTED
HIGHS FOR THE AFTERNOON.  DESPITE THIS...KSHV MORNING SOUNDING HAD
LR8-5 IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM...W/GOES SOUNDINGS FARTHER SOUTH SHOWING A
DIMINISHED CAP AND CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING...W/DAMAGING
OUTFLOWS POSSIBLE. MODELS ALSO TRY TO DEVELOP A DEPRESSION OUT OF
THE LOW CURRENTLY UNDER THE TROUGH...BUT CARRY THIS ONTO THE TEXAS
GULF COAST LATER IN THE WEEK AND KEEP IT SOUTH OF THE FA.

OTHERWISE...RIDGE WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTH AND WEST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...FOR A GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPS/THICKNESSES EACH
DAY.  INCIDENTALLY...TODAY IS THE LAST DAY OF KSHV/S CLIMATOLOGICAL
PEAK ON TEMPS FOR THE SUMMER...BUT A COUPLE OF WARM DAYS REMAIN.
HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE EXTENDED ANOTHER DAY AT LEAST.  BY LATE
THURSDAY...GFS PLACES THE RIDGE FM THE FOUR CORNERS THRU THE CENTRAL
TEXAS COAST...OPENING UP THE FOUR-STATE AREA TO NW FLOW ALOFT.
ECMWF IS SIMILAR--NW FLOW ALOFT.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRANSITION
TO SOME REALISTIC CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THE FA THRU THE EXTENDED.
MODELS EVEN HINT AT A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
FROM A TROUGH MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  IF THIS PANS
OUT...TEMPS COULD BE BACK TO NORMAL IN THE FOUR-STATE AREA BY THE
END OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCT TSTMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ONCE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB OVER 100 DEGREES. IN SUCH HOT ENVIRONMENTS WITH
WESTERLY MOVING THUNDERSTORMS...STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE TYPICAL. MOST
OF THESE TSTMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PRIOR
CONVECTION...AND THROUGH 00Z THE SITES IN NEAREST PROXIMITY TO TSTMS
WILL BE ELD...SHV...LFK. FROM 00Z TO 03Z...ADD TXK...MLU...GGG TO
THAT LIST. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77 102  75  96  76 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  74  99  74  95  74 /  20   0   0   0   0
DEQ  73 106  75 103  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  75 106  75 101  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  74 102  73  99  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  75 103  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  75 102  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  75  99  73  93  75 /  20   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

17/44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-041100-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
1200 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO 102 TO 108 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.
COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITIES...THESE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN
HEAT INDICES OF 105 TO 109 DEGREES.  THIS WILL RESULT IN STRESS TO
ANYONE INVOLVED IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES...AND THOSE CONFINED INDOORS
WITHOUT FANS OR AIR CONDITIONERS.

IN ADDITION...ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...
MAINLY EAST OF A LUFKIN...TEXAS TO TEXARKANA...ARKANSAS LINE.  ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.  A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH
TRIPLE DIGIT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MOST PLACES ONCE AGAIN.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 105 TO 109 DEGREES CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER...HAM RADIO OPERATOR...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

44

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