Severe Thunderstorm Warning 396, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
314 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

.DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION MOVING N QUICKLY UPON ITS OWN OUTFLOW ATTM. MAY BE IN
SHV IN THE 4-5 PM TIME FRAME. THESE ARE TYPICALLY WINDY STORMS
WITH GUSTS COMMONLY OVER 30 KTS. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE CLUSTER OF
STORMS COULD RAPIDLY END THE RAIN THREAT MOST AREAS BY SUNDOWN.

LAZY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH WEAK SHEAR AXIS OVER AREA WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH NW FLOW ALOFT
THIS WEEKEND. EXPECTING THE MOISTURE TAP WE/VE EXPERIENCED
YESTERDAY AND TODAY TO SLOWLY GET SHOVED MORE EASTWARD...HENCE OUR
CHCS OF RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH FOR FRIDAY SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER THE
PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALSO RESULT IN APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD BE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND. GFS LINGERS THIS
OVER OUR CWA WHILE THE ECMWF MORE FIRMLY SHOVES PRECIP BAND SOUTH
OF OUR AREA. ECMWF LOOKS A LITTLE MORE REASONABLE...AND IT ALSO
AGREES WITH THE ONGOING FCST OF SLIGHT CHCS OF CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF ZONES ONLY. RAIN CHANCES WILL CREEP BACK
NORTHWARD AS STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS INCREASE OF
MOISTURE INTO CWA. /17/

&&

.AVIATION...

WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION WILL CREATE AVIATION
HAZARDS WITH WIND SHIFTS AND PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. OUTSIDE OF
THE CONVECTION...MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. AFTER 05Z...EXPECT
PATCHY FOG TO FORM OVER WET GROUND...OR AREAS WHICH RECEIVE RAIN.
THE PATCHY IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 27/14Z. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  92  74  92 /  30  20  20  30
MLU  71  91  73  91 /  30  30  20  30
DEQ  70  92  72  90 /  20  10  20  30
TXK  72  92  74  91 /  20  20  20  30
ELD  71  92  73  92 /  30  30  20  30
TYR  73  93  74  92 /  20  20  20  30
GGG  73  92  74  92 /  20  20  20  30
LFK  73  92  73  91 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

17/14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-271100-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
1200 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
FOR NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE FOUR STATE
REGION TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...HIGH AND DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. HOWEVER MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE LIGHTNING...WHICH CAN BE
DEADLY...SO IF YOU HEAR THUNDER...REMEMBER THAT YOU CAN BE STRUCK.
NO ORGANIZED HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE REGION WILL BE
IN A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR DEVELOPMENT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...HIGH AND DAMAGING WINDS...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORMS. NO ORGANIZED HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER...HAM RADIO OPERATOR...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL ACTIVATION...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...
WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

17

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