Severe Thunderstorm Warning 372, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1122 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2008

.DISCUSSION...
KEEPING AN EYE ON AN MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AS IT IS ABOUT TO CROSS
THE RED RIVER. IT LOOKS TO STILL BE HOLDING TOGETHER...AND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING INCREASING...MAY INTENSIFY. FEEL CONFIDENT THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL HOLD TOGETHER WELL ENOUGH TO MAKE IT TO THE NORTHEAST
TEXAS PORTION OF THE FORECAST REGION. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED
POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST REGION. CIRRUS OUTFLOW
OF THESE STORMS ALSO LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALMOST DEFINITELY HAVE AN
AFFECT ON AFTERNOON HIGHS. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS
TO THE NORTH OF A TYLER TEXAS...TO HOPE ARKANSAS LINE BY A FEW
DEGREES.

THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING HAS INDICATED A MARGINAL UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH CAPE IN THE 3000 J/KG RANGE AND
NO CIN. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THESE
STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE...WITH BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE BALLPARK OF 2
INCHES...HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. AS
FOR TRIGGERS...ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PRODUCED BY THE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX IN THE WEST MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS FAR EAST AS
SHREVEPORT LATER IN THE DAY. AND...THE FUN DOESNT END WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION. EXPECT THAT THESE LATER STORMS
WILL FOLLOW SUIT WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM...AFFECTING SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT TO BKN CLDS 4-6 KFT THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON SOUTHERN HALF OF
AREA...BASICALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. LOWER CONDITIONS VICINITY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. STORMS MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS VICINITY TSTMS.  SURFACE WINDS MAINLY EAST TO NORTHEAST 5 TO
10 KTS. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 40 KTS VICINITY
CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  70  90  70 /  40  40  20  10
MLU  92  67  88  66 /  20  20  20  10
DEQ  86  66  88  65 /  50  50  20  10
TXK  88  68  89  69 /  50  50  20  10
ELD  90  67  88  65 /  20  20  20  10
TYR  89  72  90  71 /  50  50  20  10
GGG  89  71  90  70 /  50  50  20  10
LFK  94  70  92  71 /  20  40  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

18/14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1207 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2008

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-181715-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
1207 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING...AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
INTENSIFICATION. THIS COMPLEX WILL AFFECT MOSTLY AFFECT LOCATIONS
TO THE WEST OF A LINE STRETCHING FROM CLARKSVILLE
TEXAS...SHREVEPORT...TO NATCHITOCHES LOUISIANA. DAYTIME HEATING
AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALLOW THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. REPORTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN RECEIVED OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN AS THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVED
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...INCLUDING A 64 MPH WIND GUST AT DFW
AIRPORT AND SEVERAL TREES DOWN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY WILL FOLLOW THE TRACK OF TODAYS THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX...AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST
TEXAS. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...MAINLY DUE TO DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER...HAM RADIO OPERATOR...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
TEXAS...AND POSSIBLY NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.

18

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1235 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2008

TXZ108>111-124>126-136>138-171830-
CAMP-FRANKLIN-GREGG-HARRISON-MARION-MORRIS-SMITH-TITUS-UPSHUR-WOOD-
1235 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 130 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES
IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
     TITUS...FRANKLIN...MORRIS...CAMP...WOOD...UPSHUR...MARION...
     HARRISON...SMITH AND GREGG.

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
     ARP...BIG SANDY...CLARKSVILLE CITY...DIANA...
     GILMER...GLADEWATER...HAWKINS...LINDALE...LONGVIEW...
     MINEOLA...MOUNT VERNON...PITTSBURG...QUITMAN...TYLER...
     AND WHITEHOUSE.

AT 1230 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR COOPER TEXAS...TO 10 MILES
WEST OF CANTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS OF 40 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
RESIDENTS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST TEXAS SHOULD STAY ALERT FOR FURTHER
STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM.

LAT...LON 3295 9558 3295 9525 3334 9524 3295 9468
      3242 9474 3239 9499 3217 9506 3216 9539
      3275 9563
TIME...MOT...LOC 1735Z 308DEG 25KT 3288 9567

03

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