Severe Thunderstorm Warning 365, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
457 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

.DISCUSSION...
KEEPING AN EYE THIS MORNING ON A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. CONVECTION IS IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS EAST TO
WEST LINE OF STORMS...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES
INDICATED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM
IS MOVING GRADUALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND SHOULD WEAKEN WHILE
PASSING ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS
SYSTEM DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS
INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD THROUGH TODAY...GRADUALLY MODIFYING AS IT PROGRESSES.
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINANT IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THROUGH THIS WEEK...FORECAST MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO THE REGION...WITH THE NEXT ONE MOVING
INTO THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY MORNING. /18/

&&

.AVIATION...
LOOKING TO OUR NORTH...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
MOVING TO THE SOUTH AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROUND THE EASTERN EDGE OF
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...TRANSITIONING THE FLOW ALOFT TO A
NORTHWEST DIRECTION. THIS WILL BE SENDING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST AFFECTING SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHEAST TEXAS ALONG AND NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR. THE SOUTHERN MOVEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY
WILL BE SLOWLY DURING THE DAY AND WILL AFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION. LOOKING FOR MOSTLY VFR OVER
MUCH OF EAST TEXAS AND ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
/06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  73  95  72 /  30  30   0   0
MLU  93  72  94  71 /  50  30   0   0
DEQ  89  69  95  70 /  60  20   0   0
TXK  89  70  95  72 /  80  20   0   0
ELD  90  70  95  71 /  80  20   0   0
TYR  94  73  95  74 /  30  30   0   0
GGG  92  72  94  73 /  30  30   0   0
LFK  93  73  94  72 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HEMPSTEAD...HOWARD...LITTLE RIVER...NEVADA...AND SEVIER.

LA...NONE.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AND MCCURTAIN.

TX...NONE.
&&

18/06

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