Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
304 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...

DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTH SOUTHWEST
THROUGH WEST TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. AS IT CROSSES THE CWA THIS EVENING...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SQUALL LINE...WHICH BRINGS THE CHANCE OF PCPN
THIS EVENING...TO NEAR 100 PERCENT...AT LEAST ACROSS EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE SQUALL LINE...
MAINLY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. TORNADO POSSIBILITY HIGH OUT AHEAD OF THE
SQUALL LINE...WHERE SHEAR PROFILES ARE MOST FAVORABLE. TEMPS ALOFT WILL
ALSO BE DROPPING INCREASING THE HAIL CHANCES. THE UPPER SYSTEM STILL
MOVING SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS THINKING...SO HAVE TO HOLD ON A
LITTLE LONGER TO THE RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT. FWS RADAR ALSO SHOWING
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT.

AFTER TONIGHT...A DRY PERIOD UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL
TREND ABOVE NORMAL...EXCEPT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROUGH HAS MOVED LITTLE...AND REMAINS JUST
WEST OF THE OK/TEXAS PANHANDLES...WHILE SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT FROM KDFW-KROC.  ALSO NOTED WAS A WEAK
DRYLINE REACHING FROM KDFW-KHDO.  18Z NAM RUN PUSHES FRONT/DRYLINE
INTO KTYR BY 00Z...AND KMLU BY 06Z.  KSHV 18Z SOUNDING SHOWS
FAST-ERODING CAP...AND STILL REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE...W/H7-H5 LR/S
STILL IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM.  FOR AVIATION CONCERNS...LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS UNTIL FROPA...EXCEPT FOR LOWER
DURING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH SFC WINDS TO VEER
TO WEST AS FROPA APPROACHES/MOVES THRU...THEN IMPROVING CEILINGS TO
VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  44  54  34  61 /  70   0   0  10
MLU  47  55  33  60 / 100   0   0  10
DEQ  40  51  31  56 /  30   0   0  10
TXK  41  52  34  57 /  50   0   0  10
ELD  44  53  30  59 /  90   0   0  10
TYR  41  55  37  62 /  30   0   0  10
GGG  42  55  33  62 /  40   0   0  10
LFK  44  59  37  66 /  60   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COLUMBIA...HEMPSTEAD...HOWARD...LAFAYETTE...LITTLE
     RIVER...MILLER...NEVADA...SEVIER...AND UNION AR.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BIENVILLE...BOSSIER...CADDO...CALDWELL...CLAIBORNE...DE
     SOTO...GRANT...JACKSON...LA
     SALLE...LINCOLN...NATCHITOCHES...OUACHITA...RED
     RIVER...SABINE LA...UNION LA...WEBSTER...AND WINN.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AND MCCURTAIN.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ANGELINA...BOWIE...CAMP...CASS...CHEROKEE...FRANKLIN...GREGG...HARRISON...MARION...MORRIS...NACOGDOCHES...PANOLA...RED
     RIVER...RUSK...SABINE TX...SAN
     AUGUSTINE...SHELBY...SMITH...TITUS...UPSHUR...AND WOOD.

&&

14/44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-061200-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
1200 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. SUPERCELLS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE TORNADOES. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO
BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...ADJACENT NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AS WELL AS NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA.
THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL EXTEND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...
UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER...HAM RADIO OPERATOR...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL ACTIVATION...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

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