Severe Thunderstorm Warning 285, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
353 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2008

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG UPPER LOW WILL BOWL EASTWARD TONIGHT AND PRODUCE POSSIBLY
TWO VERSIONS OF SEVERE WEATHER. FIRST WILL BE CONVECTION ALONG AND
AHEAD OF DRY LINE THIS EVENING TIL MIDNIGHT...THEN SECOND TYPE MAY
OCCUR NEAR THE COLD CORE OF UPPER LOW WITH SCATTERED HAILERS.

AFTER TONIGHT...LOOKING AT FAIR AND ALMOST HOT WEATHER THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH MAX TEMPS FRIDAY NEAR 90 DEGREES I 20 SOUTHWARD.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL ALLOW DISTURBANCES TO INTERACT WITH THE
WARM AND SOMEWHAT MUGGY AIR MASS WE/LL REMAIN UNDER...THUS LOW CHC
POPS REMAIN IN FCST THIS WEEKEND. FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY WILL
USHER IN ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF INACTIVE WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE NEXT CHC OF PRECIP ARRIVES WITH
ANOTHER FRONT TUESDAY. /17/

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF BRIEF PERIODS OF TSTMS AS THEY PROPAGATE NE DURING LATE
THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING DURING THE 21Z THROUGH 06Z
TIME FRAME.  VIII.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  86  65  90 /  50  10   0  10
MLU  66  86  65  90 /  40  20   0  10
DEQ  61  81  59  85 /  60  10  10  10
TXK  64  82  63  86 /  60  10  10  10
ELD  65  83  61  88 /  60  20  10  10
TYR  63  86  66  89 /  40   0   0  10
GGG  64  84  64  90 /  40  10   0  10
LFK  65  89  66  91 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COLUMBIA...HEMPSTEAD...HOWARD...LAFAYETTE...LITTLE RIVER...
     MILLER...NEVADA...SEVIER...AND UNION AR.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BIENVILLE...BOSSIER...CADDO...CALDWELL...CLAIBORNE...DE SOTO...
     GRANT...JACKSON...LA SALLE...LINCOLN...NATCHITOCHES...OUACHITA...
     RED RIVER...SABINE LA...UNION LA...WEBSTER...AND WINN.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     MCCURTAIN.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ANGELINA...BOWIE...CAMP...CASS...CHEROKEE...FRANKLIN...GREGG...
     HARRISON...MARION...MORRIS...NACOGDOCHES...PANOLA...RED RIVER...
     RUSK...SABINE TX...SAN AUGUSTINE...SHELBY...SMITH...TITUS...
     UPSHUR...AND WOOD.

&&

17/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2008

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-081100-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
1200 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND EXTREME NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. THIS MODERATE
RISK AREA INCLUDES TYLER...LONGVIEW...IDABEL...TEXARKANA...AND
SHREVEPORT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FOUR STATE AREA. THIS SLIGHT
RISK AREA INCLUDES LUFKIN...MONROE...AND EL DORADO.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MOST COMMON SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER...TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TODAY...POSSESSING AMPLE JET STREAM DYNAMICS. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ENCOUNTER UNSTABLE AIR AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVER OUR
FOUR STATE AREA. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR OR EAST OF I 35 IN NORTH TEXAS...AND
MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA.

THE SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD EXIT OUR AREA TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

17

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
347 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2008

ARZ059-060-070-TXZ097-072115-
BOWIE-HEMPSTEAD-LITTLE RIVER-MILLER-
347 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 415 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES
IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
     LITTLE RIVER...HEMPSTEAD AND MILLER

IN NORTHEAST TEXAS
     BOWIE

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
     FULTON...MANDEVILLE...OGDEN...TEXARKANA...HOOKS...MAUD...NASH...
     REDWATER AND WAKE VILLAGE

AT 347 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MAUD...OR 8 MILES EAST OF SIMMS...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3375 9402 3359 9363 3334 9405 3326 9435
      3334 9452
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 231DEG 61KT 3337 9431

15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
749 PM CDT WED MAY 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0723 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W JACKSONVILLE        31.97N 95.28W
05/07/2008                   CHEROKEE           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ALONG FM 3301

&&

CS

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