Severe Thunderstorm Warning 217, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
939 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2008

.DISCUSSION...

WELL...WE KEEP HOPING THE SEVERE THREAT IS OVER...JUST FOR
ANOTHER ROUND TO FIRE OFF. I EXTENDED SVR IN THE GRIDS AND ZFP FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT TO MATCH WITH SPC OUTLOOK. CONCERNING THE
NEW FF WATCH...A COUPLE THOUGHTS. FIRST...IT WAS APPARENT THAT
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM OUR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAD
OCCURRED AND WAS POSING SOME PROBLEMS THAT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
COULD SURELY AGGRAVATE. MODELS FAIRLY UNANIMOUSLY SUGGEST THAT
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF BASIN AVG QPF OF UP TO HALF AN INCH WILL
OCCUR IN THE WATCH AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH THE LIKELY
MECHANISM BEING ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW
NEAR I 30. IF THIS PANS OUT...LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS THAN HALF AN
INCH ARE CERTAIN. A FEW LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH
FLOODING AND COORDINATION WITH LOCAL OFFICIALS HELPED INSPIRE THE
FF WATCH. /17/

&&

.AVIATION...

WEAK COLD FRONT HAS NUDGED A BIT FARTHER S INTO EXTREME NE TX/SW AR
THIS EVENING...AND WAS LOCATED ALONG AN ACT...TO CRS...TO OSA...TO N
OF A TXK LINE AS OF 2Z. FRONT WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL
PROGRESS SWD THIS EVENING...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION /SVR AT TIMES/
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN VC OF THE FRONT GENERALLY N OF A
TYR/GGG/SHV/ELD LINE. THUS...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
TO 35KTS AND GR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR STRONGER STORMS.
OTHERWISE...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW MVFR CIGS SPREADING N ACROSS
E TX/N LA BETWEEN 3-6Z...LOWERING TO IFR /BKN007/ BETWEEN 8-11Z S OF
THE FRONT. WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE DECISION FOR TEMPO THUNDER AT THE
AFFECTED TERMINALS AT THE TAF ISSUANCE...BUT OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO LINGER THROUGH POSSIBLY MIDMORNING BEFORE ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO SHUNT NE AWAY FROM THE AREA. LOOK FOR
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CIGS /VFR/ BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE FRONT LIFTING N/BEGINNING TO WASH OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS SRLY WINDS INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER WRN TX. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL FIRE AFTER
18Z WEDNESDAY OVER OK/NCNTRL TX...AND ADVANCE NE ALONG/NW OF I-30 OF
NE TX/SW AR AFTER 00Z. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  78  67  80 /  50  40  30  50
MLU  63  81  66  84 /  20  30  30  30
DEQ  56  69  65  77 /  70  60  50  70
TXK  60  72  66  79 /  70  50  40  70
ELD  61  75  66  81 /  50  40  30  60
TYR  63  79  68  79 /  60  40  40  50
GGG  62  78  69  78 /  50  40  40  60
LFK  66  83  69  83 /  20  20  20  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HEMPSTEAD...HOWARD...LITTLE RIVER...MILLER...NEVADA...AND
     SEVIER.

LA...NONE.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     MCCURTAIN.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BOWIE...CAMP...CASS...FRANKLIN...MORRIS...RED RIVER...TITUS...
     UPSHUR...AND WOOD.

&&

17/15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2008

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-091100-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
1200 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...
LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. ALSO...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 30.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE FLOODING...FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION.
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT...WHICH MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTER GROUPS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

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