Severe Thunderstorm Warning 196, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
626 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2008

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED ZONES TO INCLUDE NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 163.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2008/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED INTO THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION AND EXTENDED NEAR KLIT TO
KTXK...AND KTRL LINE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE SYSTEM WITH STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION GIVEN THE RAINFALL MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES AND STORMS CAN TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE SINCE
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE REMAIN HIGH AND RANGE FROM ONE
AND ONE HALF TO NEAR ONE AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT NUDGING THE SURFACE FRONT
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA BY SATURDAY. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH LARGE HAIL...AND HIGH AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREAT IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION DURING SATURDAY
AND EXPECTING TO REMAIN RAIN FREE UNTIL THE EARLY HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WHEN OUR NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
CURRENT MODEL DATA HINTS AT A WET PERIOD FOR THE LATE HALF OF THE
NEXT WORKWEEK. STAYED NEAR THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURES. /06/

AVIATION...

MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT TSRA
ACTIVITY ALONG THE I30 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR AREA TERMINALS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS A
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE AT SNAILS PACE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR A FSM TO DFW LINE...WILL CONTINUE TO TAP INTO
DEEP MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF IT IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY AS THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE ACROSS AREA TERMINALS TODAY. BY 00Z...TSRA ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
ENDING AT ARKLATEX TERMINALS...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
/11/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  48  73  49 / 100  30   0   0
MLU  72  49  69  47 / 100  60   0   0
DEQ  63  42  72  43 /  80  10   0   0
TXK  69  45  71  48 / 100  20   0   0
ELD  71  45  70  47 / 100  40   0   0
TYR  71  46  72  50 / 100  20   0   0
GGG  71  46  72  49 / 100  20   0   0
LFK  72  49  75  50 / 100  40   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COLUMBIA...HEMPSTEAD...HOWARD...LAFAYETTE...LITTLE
     RIVER...MILLER...NEVADA...SEVIER...AND UNION AR.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BIENVILLE...BOSSIER...CADDO...CALDWELL...CLAIBORNE...DE
     SOTO...GRANT...JACKSON...LA
     SALLE...LINCOLN...NATCHITOCHES...OUACHITA...RED
     RIVER...SABINE LA...UNION LA...WEBSTER...AND WINN.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AND
     MCCURTAIN.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ANGELINA...BOWIE...CAMP...CASS...CHEROKEE...FRANKLIN...GREGG...HARRISON...MARION...MORRIS...NACOGDOCHES...PANOLA...RED
     RIVER...RUSK...SABINE TX...SAN
     AUGUSTINE...SHELBY...SMITH...TITUS...UPSHUR...AND WOOD.

&&

06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
600 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2008

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-041700-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
600 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRAIN
ALONG AND NEAR A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...IN
ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND HIGH AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE AMOUNTS OF NEAR ONE UP TO TWO INCHES
WITH TOTALS APPROACHING THREE TO FOUR INCHES BEFORE
ENDING TONIGHT. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE
PREVIOUS RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS OCCURRED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN NEAR MID WEEK WITH
THE LATE HALF OF THE WEEK LOOKING WET. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTER GROUPS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

06

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
430 AM CDT FRI APR 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 AM     HAIL             5 SW HORATIO            33.89N 94.42W
04/04/2008  M0.75 INCH       LITTLE RIVER       AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

STEVENS