River Flood Warning 25, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
558 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2008

.DISCUSSION...

THANKS TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
STRONG AND GUSTY TODAY ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION. WINDS WILL
NORTHERLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH. ADD TO THE WINDS
THE RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW...AND THEN THE CHANGE OVER TO MAINLY
SNOW BY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN HALF...THE REGION WILL SEE A
COLD AND MISERABLE DAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER
AMOUNTS FROM TRACE TO ONE HALF INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...ONE TO TWO
INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...2 TO 3 FOR THE AREA BETWEEN
THE INTERSTATE 20 AND INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR...AND AMOUNTS OF 2 TO
4 INCHES AND ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO NEAR 5 OVER SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS WILL BE CONTINUED FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST WITH
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL TWO THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHTER SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS MAY OCCUR BUT EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS THERE TO BE LIGHT AND
MELTING MOSTLY. THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST
REGION ALONG WITH 85H LOW PRESSURE WAS WRAPPING MOISTURE INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND VORTICITY LOBE TRAILING SOUTHWEST
ACROSS S TX. IN THE COLD AIR THE RAIN WAS MIXING WITH SNOW OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES BUT LATER DURING THE DAY WILL BE CHANGING OVER
TO MOSTLY SNOW AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL. IN THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST WARP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SNOW BUT THE AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHTER. HAVE STRAYED AWAY FROM GUIDANCE VALUES TODAY GIVEN THE
COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO BE COLDER GIVEN SNOW COVER.
TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IMPROVING OVERNIGHT WHERE SNOW
COVER AND RE FREEZING OCCURS ON WET SURFACES. WILL REMAIN COLD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING ON SUNDAY BUT RAIN RETURNS
MONDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT RETURNS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGS
DOWN INTO THE SW AND ACROSS MEXICO. BY MID WEEK A WARMING WILL
OCCUR AS RIDGING ALOFT ADVANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. /06/

&&

.AVIATION...

COLD FRONT HAS EXITED THE REGION INTO SE LA/COASTAL MS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA IN WAKE
OF THE FRONT. UPPER TROUGH OVER WCNTRL TX CONTINUES AN EASTWARD
TREK...WITH AREAS OF A -RAIPSN MIXTURE ACROSS E TX ATTM. PRECIP.
WILL REDEVELOP NE INTO SE OK/SW AR THIS MORNING IN THE FORM OF SN
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH THE PRECIP. AREA SHIFTING E INTO SCNTRL
AR/N LA BY LATE MORNING. COLD ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC COOLING WILL
ALLOW PRECIP. TO CHANGE OVER TO SN FROM W TO E ACROSS ALL OF THE
REGION...WITH STRONG NRLY WINDS OF 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 23KTS.
THIS WILL CREATE REDUCED VSBYS TO NEAR 1-3SM AT TIMES...POSSIBLY
FALLING TO 3/4SM IN THE HEAVIER SNOW/PRECIP. BURSTS. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT/SCATTER OUT ACROSS E TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR BETWEEN
18-21Z. PRECIP. SHOULD EXIT THE ELD/MLU TERMINALS BY 00Z
SATURDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD THROUGH 6Z...ALTHOUGH ELEVATED
VFR CU CIGS MAY REFORM THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES
SQUEEZED OUT OVERNIGHT WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE PASSAGE...BUT WILL
OMIT FROM THE UPCOMING 12Z TAFS ATTM. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  36  28  46  33 /  90  40  10  10
MLU  39  29  44  29 /  90  40  10  10
DEQ  33  20  39  29 /  90  20  10  10
TXK  33  24  39  31 /  90  40  10  10
ELD  35  24  43  29 /  90  40  10  10
TYR  33  26  51  40 /  90  20  10  10
GGG  34  27  46  36 /  90  20  10  10
LFK  38  30  54  37 /  90  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COLUMBIA...HEMPSTEAD...HOWARD...LAFAYETTE...LITTLE
     RIVER...MILLER...NEVADA...SEVIER...AND UNION AR.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HOWARD...LITTLE RIVER...AND SEVIER.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES:
     COLUMBIA...HEMPSTEAD...LAFAYETTE...MILLER...NEVADA...AND
     UNION AR.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BIENVILLE...BOSSIER...CADDO...CALDWELL...CLAIBORNE...DE
     SOTO...GRANT...JACKSON...LA
     SALLE...LINCOLN...NATCHITOCHES...OUACHITA...RED
     RIVER...SABINE LA...UNION LA...WEBSTER...AND WINN.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BIENVILLE...BOSSIER...CADDO...CLAIBORNE...DE
     SOTO...JACKSON...LINCOLN...OUACHITA...RED RIVER...UNION
     LA...AND WEBSTER.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     MCCURTAIN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     MCCURTAIN.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ANGELINA...BOWIE...CAMP...CASS...CHEROKEE...FRANKLIN...GREGG...
     HARRISON...MARION...MORRIS...NACOGDOCHES...PANOLA...RED
     RIVER...RUSK...SABINE TX...SAN AUGUSTINE...SHELBY...
     SMITH...TITUS...UPSHUR...AND WOOD.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AND RED RIVER.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES:
     BOWIE...CAMP...CASS...CHEROKEE...FRANKLIN...GREGG...HARRISON...
     MARION...MORRIS...PANOLA...RUSK...SMITH...TITUS...UPSHUR...
     AND WOOD.

&&

06/15

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