Flash Flood Watch 8, NWS Shreveport, LA

Columbia County, AR, Hempstead County, AR, Howard County, AR, Lafayette County, AR, Little River County, AR, Miller County, AR, Nevada County, AR, Sevier County, AR, Union County, AR, Bienville Parish, LA, Bossier Parish, LA, Caddo Parish, LA, Caldwell Parish, LA, Claiborne Parish, LA, De Soto Parish, LA, Grant Parish, LA, Jackson Parish, LA, LaSalle Parish, LA, Lincoln Parish, LA, Natchitoches Parish, LA, Ouachita Parish, LA, Red River Parish, LA, Sabine Parish, LA, Union Parish, LA, Webster Parish, LA, Winn Parish, LA, Angelina County, TX, Bowie County, TX, Camp County, TX, Cass County, TX, Cherokee County, TX, Franklin County, TX, Gregg County, TX, Harrison County, TX, Marion County, TX, Morris County, TX, Nacogdoches County, TX, Panola County, TX, Red River County, TX, Rusk County, TX, Sabine County, TX, San Augustine County, TX, Shelby County, TX, Smith County, TX, Titus County, TX, Upshur County, TX, Wood County, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1041 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT AREA RADARS SHOW MCS FINALLY MOVING ESE OF THE
SHREVEPORT/BOSSIER AREA.  TO SAY THAT PRECIPITATION PROCESSES W/THIS
SYSTEM HAVE BEEN EFFICIENT WOULD BE AN UNDERSTATEMENT.  KSHV ASOS AT
0330Z MEASURED 6.53 OVER THE PAST FEW HRS...4.43 IN IN ONE HR.  WV
IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER SE AZ...AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE MOVING
THRU SW FLOW ALOFT.  SFC ANALYSIS PLACES THE DRYLINE FROM
KLRD-KABI...W/COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM KSPS-KMCI.
UNFORTUNATELY...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS FORMING OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS.  THUS...WE/LL UPDATE TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL...AND ADJUST
OTHER PARAMETERS TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.  LATEST NAME IS WET
TOMORROW...W/FCST SOUNDINGS IN EXCESS OF 2 IN PWATS.  MID CREW WILL
LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE A FFA THRU AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  UPDATES
OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OVERNIGHT.  CIGS AND VSBYS IN VICINITY OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE MVFR FOR THE MOST PART...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
NEAR THE CORE OF STORMS.  FLIGHT HAZARDS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 14/18Z.  NON CONVECTIVE IFR
CIGS EXPECTED TO AGAIN BECOME WIDESPREAD WITH OCCASIONAL VSBYS AOB 3
MILES.  IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST 14/16Z.  SURFACE
WINDS MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 KTS...BUT GUSTS OVER 30
KNOTS POSSIBLE VICINITY CONVECTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008/

DISCUSSION...

CLOUD COVER HAS PROTECTED US FROM SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THUS FAR...BUT A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE
TO BE COIN SIZE HAIL...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
TORNADO ACTIVITY.

A WET FORECAST IS ON TAP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...AS A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY IN THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE TOWARD
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SEVERAL VORT MAXES WILL
PASS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW...AND
WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS OF A HEAVY RAIN EVENT. HEAVY RAIN
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS BETWEEN FOUR AND FIVE INCHES MAY BE OBSERVED
ACROSS THE I30 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD. HOWEVER I WILL HOLD OFF ON A
WATCH ISSUANCE UNTIL WE GET MORE CERTAINTY FROM THE MODELS...BUT
TWO TO THREE INCHES SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS
EVENT.

I WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE ON MINS...BUT HUNG FAIRLY CLOSE ON MAXES.

ELEVEN

AVIATION...

MOSTLY VFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVER REGION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. CIGS AND VSBYS IN VICINITY OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE MVFR
FOR THE MOST PART...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR NEAR THE CORE OF
STORMS. FLIGHT HAZARDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THE THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 14/18Z. NON CONVECTIVE IFR
CIGS EXPECTED TO AGAIN BECOME WIDESPREAD AFTER 14/06Z WITH
OCCASIONAL VSBYS AOB 3 MILES. THE IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNTIL
AT LEAST 14/16Z. SURFACE WINDS MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15
KTS...BUT GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE VICINITY CONVECTION. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  81  71  81 /  70  70  50  40
MLU  67  79  70  81 /  70  70  50  50
DEQ  68  75  66  74 /  70  70  50  40
TXK  69  77  70  75 /  70  70  50  40
ELD  67  78  70  78 /  70  70  50  40
TYR  69  82  71  79 /  70  70  40  40
GGG  65  82  71  79 /  70  70  40  40
LFK  73  85  73  82 /  70  70  40  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

17/44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-141100-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS WARM FRONT. AS AFTERNOON HEATING
BUILDS...SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I-30
CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS INCLUDING
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
DEEP EAST TEXAS AND MUCH OF NORTH LOUISIANA.  AS WE MOVE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL HELP SUSTAIN POSSIBLE SEVERE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.  THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES A POSSIBILITY AS WELL. THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FOUR STATE
AREA ALL DAY WEDNESDAY...OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY THURSDAY
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...EVEN
PERHAPS STALLING AT TIMES. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY THEN BECOME POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PERIOD...RESULTING IN THE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA
ROADWAYS.

PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS
POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

11

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
255 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0836 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SHREVEPORT              32.47N 93.80W
05/13/2008                   CADDO              LA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES DOWN

&&

17

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
300 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MOUNT VERNON            33.17N 95.22W
05/14/2008                   FRANKLIN           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTS A SECTION OF HOLBROOK ST. COVERED
            WITH WATER.

&&

18

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
312 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

TXZ149-140915-
CHEROKEE-
312 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 415 AM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY
IN NORTHEAST TEXAS
     CHEROKEE

AT 308 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES WEST OF
JACKSONVILLE TO 19 MILES SOUTH OF RUSK...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

LAT...LON 3145 9508 3157 9516 3159 9527 3169 9531
      3179 9542 3195 9547 3214 9545 3214 9498
      3183 9500 3177 9494 3167 9496 3153 9488
      3143 9500
TIME...MOT...LOC 0812Z 251DEG 48KT 3196 9544 3154 9505

17