Flash Flood Warning 64, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
900 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2008

.DISCUSSION...

WV IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER NRN KS AND EXTENDING
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...W/ASSOCIATED FRONT/DRYLINE FROM KDRT-KSPS
ACCORDING TO LATEST SFC ANALYSIS.  LATEST RAOB ANALYSIS FROM KSHV
SHOWS AMS HAS DESTABILIZED QUITE A BIT OVER THE LAST 24HRS...W/SB
CAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000J/KG.  WET-BULB ZEROES ARE STILL A LITTLE
HIGH...WHICH PROBABLY EXPLAINS THE DEARTH OF HAIL REPORTS OVER THE
LAST FEW HRS.  HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD COME DOWN DURING THE NEXT FEW
HRS AS TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES AND LR/S INCREASE IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS AND FURTHER DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE.  CAN/T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO...AS 0-1KM SHEAR/HELICITIES REMAIN MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE...ESPECIALLY TO THE NW.  WE/LL MAKE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO
1ST PD FORECAST...AS GRIDS COVER ALL THIS REASONABLE WELL...AND WILL
UPDATE MAINLY TO MESH W/CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.  UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...

TSRA ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS THE I30 CORRIDOR...TXK HAS CARRIED
IFR CONDITIONS DURING RAIN ACTIVITY BUT MVFR HAS PREVAILED.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA VFR CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED THIS
EVENING. TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THUS TEMPO
TSRA WILL REMAIN COMMON IN 06Z TAFS. FOR THE MOST PART MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT IFR WHEN TSRA MOVE OVER TERMINALS. /11/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  78  56  77  53 /  70  50  20  10   0
MLU  68  76  57  75  56 /  70  60  40  10   0
DEQ  68  75  58  75  48 /  70  40  20  10   0
TXK  67  77  55  76  50 /  70  50  20  10   0
ELD  69  75  56  76  54 /  70  70  40  10   0
TYR  69  78  54  79  50 /  70  30  10  10   0
GGG  70  78  55  79  51 /  70  40  10  10   0
LFK  70  79  54  79  53 /  70  40  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

11/44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2008

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-071100-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
1200 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST TEXAS AND FOR NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...ADJACENT
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHEAST TEXAS TODAY...JUST AHEAD OF A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THESE SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SHIFT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL LIMIT SURFACE HEATING OVER EAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND
ADJACENT SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN LOWER
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER IN
THIS MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT COULD ENHANCE THE INSTABILITY...AND
THUS RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THESE AREAS. SHOULD ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY WEST OF AN EL DORADO
ARKANSAS...TO HOMER AND MANSFIELD LOUISIANA LINE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM A HALF INCH...TO TWO INCHES BEFORE
THE RAIN DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE
DAY...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR SPREADS SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT.
WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR
40 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE STRONGER STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM SPOTTER GROUPS...HAM RADIO
OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE
WEATHER OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

VII

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
603 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0529 PM     HAIL             13 SSW FOUKE            33.09N 93.97W
10/06/2008  E0.75 INCH       MILLER             AR   PUBLIC

            1 MI. W OF DODDRIDGE.

&&

JD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1046 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 PM     TSTM WND DMG     11 NW JACKSONVILLE      32.08N 95.39W
10/06/2008                   CHEROKEE           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINES DOWNED SOUTH BOUND FROM SMITH COUNTY ON FM
            346.

0957 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     12 S TYLER              32.15N 95.30W
10/06/2008                   SMITH              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NEAR BULLARD ALONG HIGHWAY 69 AND FM 2493.

&&

STAPLETON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1058 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 14 NE TYLER             32.47N 95.13W
10/06/2008                   SMITH              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ONE TREE DOWN ON CR 363 OUTSIDE OF WINONA.

&&

STAPLETON