Flash Flood Warning 56, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
427 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2008

.DISCUSSION...
REMNANTS OF GUSTAVO...MOVING SLOWER TO THE NORTH AT LESS THAN FIVE MPH...
JUST NW OF TXK. FLOW AROUND CENTER HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE...AND
UPPER LOW...NOT AFFECTED BY SFC FRICTION...IS LEANING FURTHER
NORTH. NOT PLANNING WIND ADVISORY YET...BUT WILLL EXAMINE TRENDS...
PARTICULARLY OVER SW AR...JST EAST OF LOW WHERE SE WINDS GUSTING
TO 20-25 KTS. MEANWHILE...DISCRETE TSTM CELLS INTENSIFYING IN SE
QUADRANT....AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR SE CORNER OF CWA FOR VERY SMALL
BUT INTENSE STORM CIRCULATIONS. TRIMMED BACK FLOOD WATCH TO
EXCLUDE THE SHV AND TXK AREAS...BUT DEFINITELY LEAVING IN
NORTHCENTRAL LA... AND AT LEAST FOR NOW...SE OK AND A PART OF SW
AR. EXPECT DRY SLOTTING BEGINNING TONIGHT OVER EAST TX...SIMILAR TO
EXTRATROPICAL LOW PATTERN...AND TAPER POPS SW TO NE THRU THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...

GUSTAV REMNANTS CENTERED NEAR SE OK AND SW ARK COUNTY BOUNDARIES
NEAR FOREMAN ARKANSAS...AND SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWEST. THERE CONTINUED
TO BE A LARGE AND BROAD CIRCULATION AROUND THE SYSTEMS CENTER WITH
LARGE WRAP AROUND BANDS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW. THE HEAVIER RAINS AND STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WERE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN LOUISIANA INTO
WESTERN MISSISSIPPI AND INTO SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. LOCALLY
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ROTATION WERE INDICATED OVER
PARTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THESE STORMS
WILL WRAP NORTH DURING THE MORNING AND SKIRT THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FOUR STATE REGION POSSIBLY AFFECTING AIRPORTS FROM NEAR
ALEXANDRIA TO MONROE LOUISIANA AND EAST OF EL DORADO ARKANSAS. WILL
CARRY MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND SURFACE VISIBILITIES AT JUST ABOUT
ALL TERMINAL SITES EXPECT THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE FOUR STATE
REGION...THE EAST TEXAS LAKES AREA. WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY
NEAR THE LOW AND OFF THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND
DIRECTIONS WILL VARY DEPENDING ON WHERE THE TERMINAL IS LOCATED.
RAINS AND CEILINGS WILL BE TAPERING TOWARD MVFR AND VFR LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV MOVE NORTH. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  83  71  86  68  90 /  60  60  20  30  10
MLU  80  71  84  68  89 / 100  70  40  30  10
DEQ  79  68  84  67  88 /  80  70  40  20  10
TXK  81  70  84  67  89 /  60  70  40  20  10
ELD  80  71  83  67  89 /  80  70  40  30  10
TYR  86  69  89  66  91 /  40  40  10  10  10
GGG  86  69  87  67  91 /  60  60  10  10  10
LFK  87  70  91  67  92 /  40  40  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARZ050-051-059>061-072-073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LAZ003>006-012>014-018>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     OKZ077.

TX...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
600 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2008

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-031700-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
600 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTH
WEST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST AND DEEP EAST TEXAS...AND FOR NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUSTAV WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE
NORTH NORTHWEST FROM THE TEXARKANA AREA. PERSISTENT SHOWERS...WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE COUNTERCLOCKWISE
AROUND THE CENTER OF GUSTAV...AFFECTING NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA...
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
SOME FLOODING COULD OCCUR THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MORE IMMEDIATE CONCERNS OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
ARE IN THE COLFAX...DRY PRONG...JENA...COLUMBIA...AND MONROE AREAS
OF NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA...AS THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE
RAINFALL ARE MOVING TOWARDS THESE AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO
NEAR FOUR INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THIS SAME REGION
OF NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA IS ALSO IN AN IMMEDIATE TORNADO RISK
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SAME INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH HAVE A
HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

GUSTAV HAS ALREADY SLOWED DOWN ITS NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT AND WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE FLOODING THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH AS WELL...AS AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FOUR STATE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER...HAM RADIO OPERATOR...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL ACTIVATION IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON...
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA...MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. IN ADDITION TO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS...
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS THREAT WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH BY EVENING.

VII

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
223 AM CDT WED SEP 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1232 AM     FLASH FLOOD      WEST MONROE             32.51N 92.15W
09/03/2008                   OUACHITA           LA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL FEET OF WATER OVER PARKWOOD DRIVE AT BAYOU BLACK
            DORCHEAT. HWY 34 AND HWY 3033 ARE CLOSED DUE TO HIGH
            WATER.

&&

STEVENS