Small Craft Advisory 15, NWS San Diego, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PDT THU OCT 9 2008

.SYNOPSIS...THE COOLING TREND AND A COASTAL EDDY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. WINDS AND LOW CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE COOLING TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...AND BY SATURDAY...CHILLY WEATHER
WILL OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS. FLOW WILL TURN OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY AND
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGH PASSES
AND CANYONS AND WARMER WEATHER ON MONDAY. THE TEMPERATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WINDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING OVER THE NORTHERN DESERTS WITH A LOCAL
GUST OVER 50 MPH REPORTED IN LUCERNE VALLEY. THE WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE A LITTLE OVERNIGHT BUT INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENING. WE COULD REACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA FRIDAY
NIGHT...SO I WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE MTNS/DESERTS
FRIDAY NIGHT SHORTLY...MOSTLY DUE TO 850 MB WINDS BETWEEN 40 AND 50
KNOTS FOR A TIME FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS IN...AND WINDS EVEN STRONGER THAN THAT ABOVE 850 MB.
THUS...WE WILL NOT NEED MUCH OF A MOUNTAIN WAVE TO BRING HIGH WIND
WARNING CRITERIA GUSTS...GREATER THAN 58 MPH...TO THE SURFACE ON THE
DESERT SLOPES OF THE MTNS.

MARINE LAYER IS ALREADY ABOUT 2500-3000 FEET DEEP AND PROJECTED TO
CONTINUE DEEPENING TO 3500 FEET OVERNIGHT. STRATUS WILL BE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AND ONLY PARTIALLY CLEAR FRIDAY DUE TO THE EDDY
CONTINUING. GIVEN THAT THE MARINE LAYER IS DEEPENING A BIT SOONER
THAN EXPECTED...WE WILL HAVE MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WHEN THE UPPER
LOW...NOW OVER OREGON...DIVES SSE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 140-KT
JET TO THE MOJAVE DESERT BY 12Z SAT. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD RISE TO
ABOVE 5000 FEET OR 850 MB FRI NIGHT...SO THAT IS ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS
WHEN THE DYNAMICS...INSTABILITY AND STRONG WEST FLOW INTERACTS WITH
THE WEST MOUNTAIN SLOPES/FOOTHILLS AND EVEN SOME INLAND VALLEYS. A
FULL-FLEDGED COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A DROP IN 850 MB TEMPS FROM
AROUND 12 TO 4 DEG C...WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA BETWEEN
ABOUT 06Z AND 12Z...SO THIS WILL BE WHEN THE PRECIP IS MOST LIKELY.
MOST OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD BE BELOW THE FREEZING LINE...SO SNOW
DOES NOT APPEAR VERY LIKELY WHEN THE COLD AIR MOVES IN...BUT TEMPS
WILL DEFINITELY FALL THROUGH THE 40S AND 30S IN THE MTNS OVERNIGHT.

CLEARING WILL OCCUR SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH
AND THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE AREA. SAT WILL BE THE
COLDEST DAY SO FAR THIS FALL WITH WIDESPREAD 40S IN THE MTNS. LOWS
SAT NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 20S IN THE MTNS...WITH EVEN SOME 30S
POSSIBLE IN COLDEST VALLEY LOCATIONS DUE TO THE DRY AIR. OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEVADA...AND WE COULD HAVE 15 MB MSLP GRADIENT
FROM CENTRAL NEVADA TO SO-CAL. WHILE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
STRONG IN THE 850-700 MB...THE WINDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULAR STRONG
IN THAT LAYER...GENERALLY AROUND 30 KT...SO MOST LIKELY...THIS WILL
BE IN THE MODERATELY STRONG CATEGORY WITH LOCAL GUSTS OVER 60 MPH
THROUGH/BELOW THE CAJON PASS AND IN THE SANTA ANA MTNS...AND GUSTS
OVER 50 MPH IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS. WARMING WILL OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS PEAKING AROUND TUE/WED. HOWEVER...TEMPS
WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEG F LOWER THIS TIME AROUND THAN THEY WERE
TUE/WED OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
100415Z...LATEST KNKX SOUNDING INDICATES THE MARINE LAYER HAS
DEEPENED TO AROUND 2500-3000 FEET THIS EVENING. THE MARINE LAYER
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT AS A MODERATE COASTAL EDDY
PERSISTS. STRATUS SHOULD EASILY SPREAD INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS AND
INLAND EMPIRE OVERNIGHT. BASES WILL BE BETWEEN 1500-2000 FEET MSL
WITH GREATER THAN 6SM VSBY...EXCEPT LOCALLY 3-5SM INLAND. STRATUS
MAY BE SLOW TO BREAKUP ON FRIDAY...AND MIGHT NOT CLEAR THE COAST.
STRATUS SHOULD SURGE INLAND AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS NEAR THE COAST AND ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS.

ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER...A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WITH UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. WESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN
FL050-100 WILL INCREASE TO 50-65 KNOTS BY FRIDAY NIGHT...RESULTING
IN STRONG UP/DOWNDRAFTS AND MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY NEAR/OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. THIS
COULD BRING A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS TO INLAND AIRPORTS INCLUDING KONT.
THE FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A RAPID DECREASE IN THE MARINE LAYER
AND GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 6 PM TO 6 AM PDT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING FOR MOST MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE APPLE AND
LUCERNE VALLEYS.

&&

PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION...SCV

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>