High Wind Watch 14, NWS San Diego, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
330 AM PST SAT NOV 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE FAIR WEATHER
TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND COOLING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND LOCAL STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAIN AND DESERTS. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL CAUSE VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS MONDAY...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WARMER NEXT WEEK
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH INTERMITTENT WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...SKIES WERE CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. ACARS
SOUNDINGS INDICATED A NEAR SURFACE BASED INVERSION WITH WEAK NE
WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS AND NW WINDS ALOFT. WEAKENING OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS WITH ABOUT -7 MB SAN-TPH.

THE UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN TODAY RESULTING IN A
LITTLE COOLING...MAINLY W OF THE MOUNTAINS. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
EXCEPT FOR A FEW HIGH CLOUDS IN NW WINDS ALOFT LATE IN THE DAY. A
FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL DIG SE AND MOVE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN MORNING. THIS WILL SPIN UP AN
EDDY AND RAPIDLY DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO
BE MORE HIGH CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE COMBINATION
OF THE PASSING TROUGH AND DEEP MARINE LAYER MOISTURE WILL BRING A
SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER AND W OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE
COULD BE LOCAL DENSE FOG ON THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES LATE TONIGHT
AND SUN MORNING. STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE
LOCAL STRONG GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT AND SUN...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WHERE THEY COULD BE NEAR ADVISORY
STRENGTH WITH GUSTS OVER 45 MPH. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL INCREASE
THE FIRE WEATHER HAZARD ON THE DRIER DESERT SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
THE WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF BY LATE SUN NIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE SUN AFTERNOON BUT RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL CAUSE SOME
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS W OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO MON AND A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS. MUCH COOLER SUN THEN NOT A LOT OF TEMP CHANGE MON IN COOL
AND DRIER NW FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DIG AND MOVE PAST TO
OUR NE BUT MODELS SHOW BIG DIFFERENCES ON HOW CLOSE IT WILL COME TO
SRN CA. WILL GO WITH DRY NLY OFFSHORE FLOW ALOFT BUT WITH ONLY WEAK
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS TUE. A LITTLE WARMER TUE AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY
INCREASE. A STRONG UPPER HIGH IN THE E PAC WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE
W COAST INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK ACCOMPANIED BY GENERALLY WEAK
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS. THIS WILL BRING SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER DAYS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR COOL NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
080930Z...VFR THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. HOWEVER...EXPECTED CATALINA
EDDY DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY SHOULD BRING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME FOG ANYTIME AFTER 00Z SUN TO OUR COASTAL AIRPORTS. CIGS MAY
START OUT BELOW FL010...BUT SHOULD SURGE INLAND AND LIFT RAPIDLY
OVERNIGHT TO ABOVE FL020 BY 12Z SUN. THE STRATUS SHOULD REACH INLAND
AIRPORTS BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z AND THE FOOTHILLS BY MORNING WITH TOPS
TO AROUND 3500 FT MSL. THE RAPID DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER MAY
BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
080930Z...WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND LIKELY REACH OR EXCEED 25 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY AROUND 12Z
SUN. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...A LARGE NW WIND SWELL ON THE ORDER OF
8 FEET OR MORE IS EXPECTED FOR A TIME SOUTH OF SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
THE COMBINATION OF SWELL AND WIND WILL MAKE CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS FOR
SMALL CRAFT ON SUN OUT BEYOND 30 NM.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...ATKIN
AVIATION/MARINE...JAD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
400 AM PST SAT NOV 8 2008

CAZ042-043-048-050-055>058-060>062-090000-
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-
COACHELLA VALLEY-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-
400 AM PST SAT NOV 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A PASSING TROUGH WILL CAUSE LOCAL STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AND IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

PATCHY DENSE FOG ON THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

LOCAL STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AND IN THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY.

PATCHY DENSE FOG ON THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES SUNDAY MORNING.

.SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED FOR THIS AREA...HOWEVER
WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

ATKIN