Wind Advisory 14, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WWUS73 KSGF 191637
NPWSGF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1037 AM CST WED NOV 19 2008


KSZ073-097-101-MOZ066-077-088-093-101-191745-
/O.CAN.KSGF.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-081119T2200Z/
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-VERNON-BARTON-JASPER-NEWTON-MCDONALD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...NEVADA...LAMAR...JOPLIN...CARTHAGE...
NEOSHO...ANDERSON...PINEVILLE
1037 AM CST WED NOV 19 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS CANCELLED THE
WIND ADVISORY. 

WIND SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE THIS MORNING
AND THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WHILE SOME WIND GUSTS OF 25
TO 30 MPH WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

$$

LINDENBERG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
536 AM CST WED NOV 19 2008

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES HAVE LEVELED OFF EARLY THIS MORNING AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS HAS CLEARED THE AREA AND SOUTH WINDS RETURN AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MAIN QUESTIONS FOR
TODAY WILL BE JUST HOW WARM WILL WE GET AND HOW HIGH WILL WIND
SPEEDS BE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A 15 DEG C GRADIENT IN 850 MB
TEMPS WAS SEEN BETWEEN KSGF AND KDDC AT 00Z WED. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT 850 MB HAVE CONTINUED TO SPREAD THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MO THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WHILE IT IS PRETTY DIFFICULT TO MIX TO 850 MB THIS TIME OF
YEAR...IF WE ONLY MIX TO 900 MB THIS SHOULD EASILY PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S. FOR NOW HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
LET UPPER 60S RIDE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE A LITTLE EXTRA DOWNSLOPE WARMING WILL BE POSSIBLE OFF THE
PLATEAU. WILL NEED TO WATCH WIND SPEEDS TODAY WITH 925 MB WINDS
AROUND 40 KNOTS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY MID/LATE MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL MAKE QUICK PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.. NAM AND ECMWF HINT AT STRATUS
FORMATION BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...SO HAVE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND DROPPED HIGHS ON THURSDAY A FEW DEGREES. WILL
LIKELY ADJUST WIND SPEEDS UP WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE 1047 MB HIGH.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE COOL AND DRY AS THE HIGH TAKES A
SOUTHEAST TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW
SURFACE HIGHS. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ECMWF ON SUNDAY AND
BRING IN LOWER END CHANCE POPS AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING FRONT...WHICH SHOULD MOVE OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z KSGF/KJLN TAFS...THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACTS IN THIS TAF
PACKAGE WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. ALSO...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE TAF SITES FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD...AS A
60KT LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR
THESE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE AND COULD SEE
GUST GREATER THAN 30KTS AT TIMES AT THE KJLN SITE AND GREATER THAN
25KTS AT TIMES AT THE KSGF SITE. THE LOW LEVEL JET AND SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...WITH THE SURFACE WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THIS EVENING.

WISE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WILL CONTINUE TO MENTIONED HEIGHTENED FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL TODAY
AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 60S AND WIND SPEEDS EXCEED 20 MPH BY
MID/LATE MORNING. AT THIS TIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND
FUEL STICK MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH FOR RED FLAG
CRITERIA.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
553 AM CST WED NOV 19 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-201200-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
553 AM CST WED NOV 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

 WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
 MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
 COMBINATION OF BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
 WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED WILDFIRE THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

 NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

TERRY