Wind Advisory 12, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WWUS73 KSGF 052140
NPWSGF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
340 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ066-067-077-078-088-089-093-094-101-102-052245-
/O.CAN.KSGF.WI.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-081106T0000Z/
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-VERNON-ST. CLAIR-BARTON-CEDAR-JASPER-
DADE-NEWTON-LAWRENCE-MCDONALD-BARRY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...JOPLIN...CARTHAGE...
GREENFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...ANDERSON...
PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVILLE
340 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS CANCELLED THE
WIND ADVISORY. 

SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA THUS THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

SCHAUMANN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
523 AM CST WED NOV 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL BE CENTERED ON STRONG SYNOPTIC
SCALE STORM SYSTEM TAKING AIM AT THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH STRONG 120-130KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
DIGGING SOUTH ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY. FURTHER
EAST AHEAD OF THE LOW...SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WAS
KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WEST OF THE PLATEAU
SO FAR TONIGHT. DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO CREEP UP...AIDED BY THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 45 TO 60 KTS IN THE PLAINS. THIS WAS ALSO
AIDING IN SOME WARM SECTOR CONVECTION BREAKING OUT TO OUR NORTH AT
THE MOMENT.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MAIN FEATURES THROUGH THE
FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE FORECAST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...UPPER LOW
IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF IN THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE IN EARNEST TODAY WEST OF THE
PLATEAU WITH DEWPOINTS TRYING TO CREEP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI BY 00Z.
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR TODAYS WEATHER WITH
SOME GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE PLATEAU. SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WILL MAKE MENTION IN THE
MORNING HWO. MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR
OVER THE NORTHWEST 1/4 OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY AND HAVE BUMPED
UP POPS THERE SLIGHTLY. THE MAIN ACTION IS SLATED FOR TONIGHT
HOWEVER FOR CONVECTION.

STRONG UPPER JET STREAK 110-120KT WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW THIS EVENING WHILE LOW STARTS TO BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED. STRONG 850 WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 40 TO 50KTS AND WILL HAVE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER EASTERN KANSAS SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND MAY CREEP INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER
OF THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE FORMING INTO A SQUALL LINE
OVERNIGHT. WILL BE MENTIONING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES
OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA FOR TONIGHT. MAIN HAZARD
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WILL BE WITH STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
AS SQUALL LINE SHIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHEAR
STILL PRETTY STRONG OVERNIGHT WITH THE SQUALL LINE AND WOULDNT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ROTATING STORMS ALONG THE LINE. STORM EVENT
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED HOWEVER WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING BY
MIDDAY OVER THE EASTERN CWA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE LATER PART
OF THE WORK WEEK. PRETTY GOOD PUNCH OF COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH
THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THESE SHORTWAVES WILL BE
FAIRLY LOW...ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTHWEST. SHOULD BE LOOKING AT
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOW 50S IN CENTRAL MO BY
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS IN THAT REGION.

LINDENBERG

&&

.AVIATION...

THERE ARE SEVERAL AVIATION HAZARDS THAT PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI NEED TO MONITOR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FROM THE SPRINGFIELD UPPER AIR RADIOSONDE...47 KNOTS WERE MEASURED
AT AROUND 2000 FEET.  THIS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DROP OFF
SOMETIME THIS MORNING...HOWEVER...SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM AT 2000 FEET
WILL TRANSPORT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  IN RESPONSE...SURFACE WIND
GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25-30 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY.

THIS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OCCURS AGAIN THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT.  LOOK FOR A LOW LEVEL JET TO SPEED UP TO 45-50
KNOTS AT 2000 FEET BY 02Z THIS EVENING.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND KANSAS...AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI TONIGHT.
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE JOPLIN AIRPORT BETWEEN 03Z -
09Z.  MEANWHILE SPRINGFIELD WILL BE IMPACTED BETWEEN 07-12Z.  THESE
STORMS MAY DROP FLIGHT CATEGORIES DOWN TO IFR AND MVFR WHEN DIRECTLY
OVER ANY PARTICULAR AIRPORT.  STAY TUNED...IT WILL BE A BUSY NIGHT
TONIGHT.

CRAMER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
401 AM CST WED NOV 5 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-061015-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
401 AM CST WED NOV 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH.
SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING...
LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH WEST OF THE OZARKS PLATEAU
FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING.

SEVERE STORMS FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
BEGINNING OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE SOUTHWEST CORNER
OF MISSOURI BY LATE EVENING.

DISCUSSION:

AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY
AND BRING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE PLAINS AND AREAS WEST OF
THE OZARKS PLATEAU TODAY. WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF MISSOURI INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OUT IN THE
PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A DRY LINE. THE INITIAL STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLS OUT IN THE PLAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT
SOME OF THESE SUPERCELLS COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE EVENING WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. AS THE COLD FRONT
OVERTAKES THE DRY LINE LATE THIS EVENING...STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONGEAL INTO A SQUALL LINE OVER WESTERN MISSOURI AND THEN PUSH
EAST OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS. ONCE
THE STORMS FORM INTO A SQUALL LINE THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BECOME
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...ALTHOUGH SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WITHIN THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT COMPLETELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
MISSOURI OZARKS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
STILL BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS THE MAIN HAZARD
EXPECTED. THE STORMS SHOULD END ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS BY MIDDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY LATE THIS EVENING
ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS OVERNIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

LINDENBERG