Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 280311
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1011 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

MOC009-209-280330-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0076.000000T0000Z-080328T0330Z/
STONE MO-BARRY MO-
1011 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL STONE AND NORTHEASTERN BARRY COUNTIES...

AT 1007 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR MCDOWELL...OR 10 MILES NORTH OF CASSVILLE...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CRANE BY 1030 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF MADRY...JENKINS...WHEELERVILLE AND ELSEY ARE IN THE PATH
OF THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...IF YOU
ARE IN ITS PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3672 9392 3693 9387 3692 9363 3696 9335
      3682 9335 3682 9334 3676 9333 3667 9333
TIME...MOT...LOC 0311Z 261DEG 22KT 3681 9378

$$

WISE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
630 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SATURDAY)...
A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS EVOLVED ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS
THIS AFTERNOON.  A SURFACE LOW WAS TRACKING INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
WHICH PULLED MID 50 DEW POINTS IN AREAS SOUTH OF I-44.  MEANWHILE
CLOUD BREAKS ALLOWED FOR GOOD DAYTIME HEATING...WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH A
SAGGING FRONTAL SYSTEM MIGHT ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO UNFOLD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...I THINK THE MAIN EVENT FOR A LARGER AREAL EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION WILL UNFOLD LATER TONIGHT...AND WELL BEHIND THE FRONT.

A COUPLE OF ISOLATED ROBUST UPDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING GIVEN THE EXISTING ENVIRONMENT.  A LAYER OF WARM AIR
ALOFT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WILL LIMIT SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION...AS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE NEEDED FOR
UPDRAFTS TO BREAK THROUGH THIS CAP.  THE CAP IS VERY STRONG...AND
THINK ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

LESS SEVERE BUT A HIGHER FREQUENCY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE 850MB FRONT LATER TONIGHT.  THIS POST FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION HAS ALSO BEEN INDICATED BY MODEL QPF...BUT ALSO BY THE
WRF RADAR SIMULATION.  THEREFORE AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY...MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE WOODS WITH REGARDS
TO ADDITIONAL STORM ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT.  WITH THIS SAID...AN
INCREASE IN POPS FOR FRIDAY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI DUE
TO RESIDUAL SHOWERS.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SURGE OF A
WARM FRONT.  MODELS SUGGEST SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL WITH THIS MOISTURE
SURGE.  I CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT...HOWEVER...ITS CERTAINLY
NOT GOING TO BE A SOLID SHIELD OF RAIN...AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.  WILL GO AHEAD AND INSERT SOME SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE 50S AND
LOW 60S.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY - WEDNESDAY)...
RAPID MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM PERIODS.  A HIGHLY CHARGED GULF OF MEXICO WILL BECOME WIDE
OPEN...ALLOWING UNUSUAL AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE
REGION.  THE FRONT THAT WILL SHIFT THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSOURI TODAY
(THURSDAY)...WILL STALL OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR...WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE GULF MOISTURE SOURCE
REGION CONTINUES TO CHARGE WITH DEEPER MOISTURE.

THE SURFACE WARM FRONT QUICKLY SURGES BACK INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI ON
SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI.  THE GFS INDICATES THAT PWATS WILL INCREASE TO VALUES
RANGING FROM 1.20 - 1.50 INCHES.  THE WARM FRONT IS INDICATED BY
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO BECOME STATIONARY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
HIGHWAY 54 AND INTERSTATE 70...THEN PUSH BACK INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI
AS A COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION.  RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF FLASH FLOODING IS BECOMING MORE
LIKELY.

FLOOD POTENTIAL:
THERE IS ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IN TODAYS MODELS RUNS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS...WHICH REGARDS A STRONGER UPPER SHORTWAVE TO PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FASTER ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI.  THIS WOULD
SUGGEST LESS TRAINING OF STORMS...LEADING TO LESS RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS SHOWS A GOOD HEAVY RAIN SIGNAL
AS THE NORTHERN GRADIENT OF MAGNITUDE BECOMES FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI FOR A GOOD 6-12 HOURS.  GIVEN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED PWAT
VALUES EXPECTED...ONE TO THREE INCHES OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
STILL FORECASTED BETWEEN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS TYPE OF
RAINFALL WILL STILL CAUSE ANOTHER EPISODE OF FLOODING.  ESPECIALLY
SINCE RUNOFF WILL BE ENHANCED DUE TO SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH THE LACK OF MARCH VEGETATION.

SEVERE POTENTIAL:
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN SOME FORM OR ANOTHER WILL EXIST FROM
SUNDAY - MONDAY AFTERNOON.  ATTEMPTING TO PINPOINT AN EXACT TIME
WHEN SEVERE STORMS WILL GO UP REMAINS A SHORT TERM FORECAST
CHALLENGE.  PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
SPREADS BACK INTO THE REGION.  COMBINE THIS MOISTURE RETURN WITH
POSSIBLE DAYTIME HEATING...THE AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE.  UNDER THE FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.  AT THIS TIME ITS DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN WHAT WILL TRIGGER ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTION.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN HIGHWAY 54
AND INTERSTATE 70.  CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FEATURE SHOULD EVENTUALLY
BECOME A FOCUS...BUT ANY SMALL UPPER PERTURBATIONS RIPPLING THROUGH
THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COULD FIRE OFF STORMS THROUGH WHAT SHOULD BE A
WEAK CAP.  AGAIN...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BECOME BETTER UNDERSTOOD
WITH LATER FORECAST.  AS OF NOW IM GOING TO INSERT SEVERE WORDING
INTO THE HWO FOR THE PERIODS SUNDAY AFTERNOON - MONDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY:
GFS AND ECMWF HAS GOOD CONSENSUS WITH RAIN EXITING THE REGION PRIOR
TO MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.  WILL KEEP SOME LOW END POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR MONDAY NIGHT OUT EAST.  OTHERWISE MOST AREAS LOOK TO CLEAR UP BY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS SPREADS
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.  TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY ONLY WARM
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HEADING INTO DAYS 6 AND 7...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE SWIFT / ZONAL
UPPER FLOW IS SUGGESTED BY MEDIUM RANGE OUTPUT.  MODELS SHOW THE
POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY.  HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE CHANCE POPS FOR THESE
PERIODS.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...LINE OF SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
SHIFTING EAST INTO THE SGF AREA AS OF 2320Z. FRONT/STORMS HAVE
CLEARED THE JLN AIRPORT AT THIS TIME AND CURRENTLY AWAITING THE
STRATUS DECK WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND 01Z. STORMS
WILL LIKELY AFFECT SGF AT THE ONSET OF THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH AROUND
01Z. HAVE KEPT VCTS IN THE 01Z-02Z TIME FRAME BUT SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE AREA BY THEN. STRATUS SHOULD ARRIVE IN SGF BY 04-05Z. STRATUS
DECK OF AROUND 700 FEET EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AFTER
IT MOVES IN. HAVE KEPT IN VFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BUT COULD SEE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS AT SGF.

LINDENBERG

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
921 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-290230-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
921 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WERE BEGINNING TO REDEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF MISSOURI. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF
PRODUCING UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. IN
ADDITION TO THE HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE POST FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING GIVEN THE RECENT FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

 SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
 A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE REGION ALLOWING FOR AN
 AIRMASS LOADED IN MOISTURE CONTENT TO SURGE INTO SOUTHERN
 MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED
 WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS AND ALLOW IT
TO
 BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS.

 AS THIS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS OUT NEAR THE
 OZARKS REGION...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL
 BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
 WIDESPREAD STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES
IS
 FORECASTED BY MONDAY NIGHT. DUE TO SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS
 COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF MARCH VEGETATION...RUNOFF WILL BE
 ENHANCED...LEADING TO AN ELEVATED RISK FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

 EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND OTHER LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES ARE URGED
 TO CLOSELY MONITOR LATER FORECAST AND DISCUSSIONS ISSUED BY THE
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
 EPISODE OF FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

LINDENBERG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
855 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

MOZ077-088-280230-
JASPER MO-BARTON MO-
855 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHERN JASPER AND SOUTHEASTERN
BARTON COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

AT 849 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PURCELL...OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CARTHAGE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  JASPER BY 905 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF CARYTOWN...MAPLE GROVE AND DUDENVILLE ARE IN THE PATH OF
THIS STORM.

PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
904 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LAQUEY                  37.77N  92.30W
03/27/2008                   PULASKI            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

JSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
915 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0639 PM     TORNADO          1 S WAYNESVILLE         37.81N 92.20W
03/27/2008                   PULASKI            MO   PUBLIC

            BRIEF TOUCHDOWN OF TORNADO REPORTED NEAR HWY H AND POLLA
            RD BY 911 CALL. TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

AMENDED TO ADD DAMAGE REPORTS.

JSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
921 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0917 PM     HAIL             4 S NEOSHO              36.81N  94.37W
03/27/2008  E0.70 INCH       NEWTON             MO   PUBLIC

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED.

&&

KARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
928 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0801 PM     HAIL             LICKING                 37.50N 91.86W
03/27/2008  E1.75 INCH       TEXAS              MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZED. DAMAGE TO SIDING AND SCREENS
            ON A TRAILER AND OUTBUILDING. HAIL WAS WIND
            DRIVEN...ESTIMATE WIND SPEED OF 50 MPH.

&&
REPORT AMENDED TO INCLUDE WIND DRIVEN ASPECT.

RKARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
929 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0924 PM     HAIL             2 NNE MONETT            36.95N  93.91W
03/27/2008  E1.00 INCH       LAWRENCE           MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

JSS