Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1254 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2008

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...SURFACE FRONT STALLING AVER FAR SOUTHERN MO. STRATUS
CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY JUST BELOW INVERSION AS
SEEN ON 00Z KSGF SOUNDING. A FEW -SHRA HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN AN AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE AND
MEAGER MOISTURE. LOWER STRATUS DECK IS BEGINNING TO EXPAND ACROSS
EASTERN TX AND SOUTHEAST OK...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD THIS
WAY IN THE COMING HOURS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION VARY DUE
TO INFLUENCES OF CLOUD COVER...COOLER NORTH...MILD SOUTH.

SHORT TERM (TODAY - FRIDAY)...

POPS AND TEMPS POSING A BIG CHALLENGE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN SHALLOW AND CONFINED...FOR THE MOST
PART...TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR A BULK OF THE SHORT TERM. AM
QUITE UNDERWHELMED BY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PROGS FROM THE 00Z SUITE
OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND AM MUCH LESS CONCERNED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL.

SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE TODAY... WITH A SLOW JOG
TO THE NORTH WITH TIME. WEAK CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOW
LEVELS...WITH INCREASING LIFT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE NOSE OF A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET TAKES AIM ON THE EASTERN CWA.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA WILL CONTINUE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
TODAY AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INTERSECTS THE BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN CWA. PRESSURE ADVECTION
ON THE 305K LEVEL FOCUSES THE BEST COVERAGE OVER MY EASTERN
ZONES...LIFTING THE NORTHEAST WITH TIME TONIGHT. BELIEVE THAT MAV
AND MET POPS ARE TOO BULLISH GIVEN THE EXPECTED SCT NATURE OF THE
-SHRA ACTIVITY AND HAVE CUT THESE ACCORDINGLY...RAISING THEM A BIT
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

WARM FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT TOO FAR NORTH...BUT IT SHOULD BE JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY. AM ONCE AGAIN NOT IMPRESSED WITH
MOISTURE PROFILES FOR THURSDAY AND HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY LOW
CHANCES FOR WARM ADVECTION -SHRA. A SFC LOW OVER KS WILL TAKE
SHAPE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY AND SEND IT BACK OUR WAY
LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DECENT SWATH OF POST FRONTAL SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY REPRESENTS OUR BEST
SHOT AT RAINFALL...BUT EVEN STILL...MEAGER 700-300MB RH PROFILES
PRECLUDE MORE THAN ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF QPF. AS WITH
ANY CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE BUT
THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A WIDESPREAD ISSUE WITH THIS
PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM.

STILL A RISK FOR FRISKY THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...HOWEVER THE RISK IS CONDITIONAL. CAPPING ALOFT LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY BE AN ISSUE THUR AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IN THE
WARM SECTOR WHICH SHOULD INCLUDED THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
MODELS STILL PRODUCING A SWATH OF APPROX 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH
40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SO THERE WILL BE A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE A HAIL/WIND RISK BEFORE THE
FRONT ACCELERATES TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY IS NARROW AND FOCUSED ON THE EVENING HOURS.

TEMPERATURE WISE...AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE WILL BE THE RULE FOR BOTH
LOWS AND HIGHS THROUGH THURSDAY. IN FACT...HIGHS THURSDAY MAY BE
WARMER THAN I AM GIVING THEM CREDIT FOR...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN
THE OVERCAST OCCUR. OTHERWISE...EXPECT COOLER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY AS
CAA REGIME SETS IN POST FRONTAL.

GAGAN

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM ZONAL AND BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS.
SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES CONFINED
TO THE SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
ADVECT IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE OZARKS.

SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFIES WITH A DEEPENING
TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST CONUS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A
SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND GULF
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTH. POPS SATURDAY ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AS IT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA. FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF
AND RAISED POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY PROVIDES THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT TAPPING INTO DEEP GULF MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS PROG PWAT
VALUES OVER AN INCH WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING. WITH THE FRONT PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE SLOWER ACROSS THE AREA THAN CURRENT MODELS
TREND.

ANGLE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING DOWN TO IFR BY MID EVENING. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
OVER WESTERN KANSAS MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO THE REGION AND
INTERACTS WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER THE
AREA. WILL CARRY VICINITY THUNDER THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER WILL GO PREDOMINANT FOR THUNDER DURING THE EARLY MORNING
WHEN THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MO.

TERRY
&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1258 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-271800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1258 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
HALF DOLLARS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIST LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FROM THE GULF...ALLOWING THE AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE OVER
AREAS FROM FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS
DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL CREATE AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT ALLOWS STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL
APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS ON THURSDAY
EVENING.

FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THE LATEST FORECAST INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
CAUSING THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI IN A SLOW FASHION. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS LEADING TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
IN SOME ISOLATED AREAS.

ANOTHER SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BY SUNDAY. AN AIRMASS LOADED WITH MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM TO PRODUCE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND
FLOODING SOMEWHERE EITHER WITHIN OR NEAR THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE
LOCATION OF THIS BELT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS DEPENDENT UPON
WHERE THE FRONT SETS UP. THIS EXACT DETAILS REMAIN UNKNOWN AT
THIS TIME.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND OTHER LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES ARE URGED
TO CLOSELY MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND DISCUSSIONS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
EPISODE OF FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CRAMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1259 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1258 PM     HAIL             BUCYRUS                 37.34N  92.02W
03/26/2008  E0.70 INCH       TEXAS              MO   POST OFFICE

            HAIL TO THE SIZE OF DIMES IS COVERING THE ROADS

&&

BARJENBRUCH

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
126 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     HAIL             SAINT ELIZABETH         38.26N  92.27W
03/26/2008  E1.00 INCH       MILLER             MO   POST OFFICE

            HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS COVERING THE GROUND

&&

BARJENBRUCH

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
151 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     HAIL             VIENNA                  38.19N  91.95W
03/26/2008  E1.50 INCH       MARIES             MO   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            1.5 INCH HAIL FALLING

&&

BARJENBRUCH