Severe Thunderstorm Warning 506, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
657 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2008

.UPDATE...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BLOSSOMED ACROSS SW AND S MO OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY HAS SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL
MO AND ADDITIONAL FORCING HAS BEEN PROVIDED BY THE REMNANT WAVE
OF DOLLY. A MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY...BUT
STEADILY TO THE SOUTHEAST...LINING UP WELL WITH THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF RADAR RETURNS AS OF 2345Z.

DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN MODEST INSTABILITY IN AREAS ALONG
AND SE OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR. SBCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND MLCAPE AS
HIGH AS 1500 J/KG HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THIS AREA. WIND SHEAR IS
ALSO MODEST...FOCUSED MORE TOWARDS SE MO OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
STILL SEEING ABOUT 15KT OF 0-1KM BULK SHEAR...MAINLY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL MO.

WILL CONTINUE TO OBSERVED TSRA ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE UPPER SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES TO IMPINGE ON HIGHER
INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...THERE REMAINS A MYRIAD OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES STREWN ABOUT LENDING TO ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED LIFT.
GIVEN VERY MOIST VERTICAL PROFILES...TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REMAIN
OUR PRIMARY CONCERN. SEVERAL REPORTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
IN AN HOURS TIME HAVE BEEN COMMON. WITH CELL MERGERS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME TRAINING CONVECTION...SUCH RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE.

SEVERE THREAT IS A BIT MORE NEBULOUS. HAVE SEEN A FEW MICROBURST
SIGNATURES VIA VELOCITY IMAGERY ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR. LOW LEVEL
FLOW INCREASES A BIT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MO...AND CERTAINLY FARTHER
EAST CLOSER TO THE PARENT UPPER LOW. WILL NEED TO KEEP A WARY EYE
ON CELLS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MO THIS EVENING. PRIMARY RISK WILL
BE LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. HAIL WILL BE TOUGH TO
COME BY GIVEN LARGE WARM CLOUD DEPTHS. GIVEN INCREASED LOW LEVEL
FLOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MO...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

WILL LIKELY SEE A DECREASE IN INTENSITY OF THIS ACTIVITY BY MID TO
LATE EVENING. MODEST LLJ...15 TO 20KT...WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON
SOUTHERN MO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT
PRECIP TO BECOME MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED WITH TIME FOCUSING ON
SOUTHERN MO...ROUGHLY ALONG AND S OF THE HWY 60 CORRIDOR. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS AND UPDATE PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE SUBTROPICAL UPPER SHORTWAVE AND REMNANTS OF DOLLY CONTINUE TO SHEAR
OUT TODAY AS IT ENCOUNTERS A BELT OF MID LATITUDE WESTERLIES. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY ARCED AROUND THE OZARKS FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI. TEMPERATURES REMAINED COOL UNDERNEATH THE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI BUT HAD CLIMBED TO NEAR THE 90 DEGREE
MARK ALONG THE ARKANSAS BORDER. ISOLATED CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP WITHIN AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY INCREASING ACROSS FROM NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND A WEAK SURFACE
WAVE.

EXPECT ISOLATED SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WITHIN AXIS OF MAXIMUM
SURFACE HEATING. WEAK LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR WILL INHIBIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL BUT STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

QUESTION THEN TURNS TO RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL TONIGHT. THE
UPPER SHEAR AXIS WILL SAG SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO THE OZARKS. MODELS
DO NOT PROG A SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL JET AS HAS OCCURRED THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS. HOWEVER EXPECT SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER TO DEVELOP DURING
THE NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. GIVEN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND
ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE BELIEVE FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LOCALIZED.
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE FROM SPRINGFIELD
EAST INTO THE EASTERN OZARKS WHERE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AS THE SHEAR AXIS
SHIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. LINGERING CLOUDS WILL AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIRMASS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR A DAY.

HOT AND STEAMY WEATHER TO END THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS
AND 850 TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 25 DEGREES CELSIUS WILL SEND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S. THE RELATIVELY MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS AND
GREEN VEGETATION WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THEIR POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 100 DEGREES AT MANY
LOCATIONS.

FOSTER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE...TRICKY FORECAST BOTH FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND OVERNIGHT. TSRA HAVE BLOSSOMED OVER SW MO THE PAST FEW
HOURS IN A WARM AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. SCT TSRA WILL
CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE WANING IN COVERAGE
BY THE MID/LATE EVENING HOURS. CONTINUED A TEMPO FOR TSRA AT JLN
AS MORE ACTIVITY IS IMMINENT. AT SGF...COVERAGE IS MUCH MORE
SPARSE FOR THE TIME BEING AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCTS...WILL
UPDATE AS NEEDED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. STILL CONCERNS FOR AT
LEAST LIGHT FOG TONIGHT. AS IT STANDS CURRENTLY...JLN IS AT A
HIGHER RISK FOR FOG TONIGHT GIVEN STOUT RAINFALL. SGF HAS YET TO
SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN SO FAR. ASSUMING AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING IFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE JLN AREA...WITH LOWER
CIGS ALSO POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RISK THIS EVENING
AND ELABORATE WITH THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY.

LINDENBERG

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MOZ070-071-
     079>083-090>098-101>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
614 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-312315-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
614 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

 ALONG THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
 CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL...
 TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

 IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
 FROM SALEM TO BRANSON...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60
 MPH...SMALL HAIL...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND...POSSIBLY... AN
 ISOLATED TORNADO ARE EXPECTED.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF
 THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING
 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH TONIGHT.

  DISCUSSION:

 AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS ONCE
 HURRICANE DOLLY...WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST
 AND WEAKEN WITH TIME TONIGHT. STRONG HEATING FROM THIS PAST
 AFTERNOON HAS RESULTED IN MODEST INSTABILITY IN AREAS ALONG AND
 SOUTHEAST OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
 UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MOST
 STORMS WILL BE STRONG...WITH LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND
 SMALL HAIL COMMON. MODEST LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE EASTERN
 OZARKS WILL SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND
 EAST OF A LINE FROM SALEM TO BRANSON. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60
 MPH ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT
 BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
 FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

 THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DECREASE IN INTENSITY BY THE MID TO
 LATE EVENING HOURS...ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
 WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS ACROSS SOUTH
 CENTRAL MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

 HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE
 THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN
 MISSOURI.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING EAST OF A LINE FROM
 SALEM TO BRANSON MISSOURI.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
720 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 S OZARK               36.99N 93.21W
07/30/2008                   CHRISTIAN          MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

            OLD PROSPECT ROAD FLOODED SOUTH OF OZARK

&&

GCLAYCOM

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>