Severe Thunderstorm Warning 495, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
157 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2008

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK FRONT STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS TRACKING EAST
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A VORTICITY LOBE STRETCHING SOUTH
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN SPARSE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

SURFACE BASED CAPES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG AND WEAK CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INITIATE DEVELOPMENT FROM EASTERN KANSAS
INTO THE CENTRAL MISSOURI. ABNORMALLY STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR
WAS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI UNDERNEATH THE
SAGGING WESTERLIES. WITH 30-40 KTS 0-6 KM SHEAR SEVERE STORMS IN
THE FORM OF ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS A SUPERCELL
OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. THINKING STORMS WILL BE INITIALLY FOCUSED
NORTH OF A LAMAR TO LEBANON LINE THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE
SHIFTING SOUTHEAST. A FEW PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60
WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS ALREADY RELATIVELY UNCAPPED.

WHILE STORM INTENSITY WILL DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS FRONT AND LOW THETA-E
GRADIENT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE OZARKS. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL JET IS
PROGGED TO BE RATHER MODEST...ENOUGH 925-850 MB MASS CONVERGENCE
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR TRAINING STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING GIVEN
THE RICH MOISTURE IN PLACE.

SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WHERE THE WEAK FRONT WILL BE SATURDAY BUT
IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL EXTEND NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
OZARKS. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST OF WHERE THE
BOUNDARY SETS UP.

MODELS ARE INDICATING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL TAKE SHAPE LATER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
HOWEVER PLACEMENT OF THIS DEVELOPMENT DOES DIFFER WITH THE GFS
MODEL THE FARTHEST SOUTH. A STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTERACT
WITH THE REMNANT BOUNDARY ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS
SATURDAY NIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT UPON WHERE THE
AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES END
UP. OTHERWISE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO ASSERT ITSELF SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHTS. THIS WILL
LIKELY BUMP TEMPERATURES UP WELL INTO THE 90S AT LEAST NEAR THE
MISSOURI KANSAS BORDER. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES
APPROACHING 105 IN THOSE SAME AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT APPEARS
THE NEXT LEGITIMATE CHANCE FOR RAIN MAY DEVELOP BY THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

FOSTER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAF CYCLE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. THE STORMS WILL THEN
DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING
OVER MOST AREAS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
THIS EVENING.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1200 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-261700-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1200 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

 SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
 THE OUTLOOK AREA. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DOWNBURST
 WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS WILL ALSO BE
 POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. HEAVY RAINFALL AND
 LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

 CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK
 FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
 WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS.

 HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 DEGREES ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
 KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

 ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
 WEEKEND...AND AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOSTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
515 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2008

MOZ071-082-083-252245-
TEXAS MO-PHELPS MO-DENT MO-
515 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...NORTHWESTERN
DENT AND SOUTHERN PHELPS COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 511 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES SOUTH OF
NEWBURG TO 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT LEONARD WOOD...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF FORT LEONARD WOOD TO 9 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF FORT LEONARD WOOD...MOVING EAST AT 18 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  LICKING BY 545 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF EDGAR SPRINGS...BEULAH...LENOX...ANUTT AND LECOMA ARE IN
THE PATH OF THESE STORMS.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

JLT