Severe Thunderstorm Warning 473, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
210 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008

.DISCUSSION...
WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS IMPACTED THE CWA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN
INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE SPREADING AROUND THE SUMMERTIME HIGH.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN
AREAS THAT EXPERIENCES CLOUD BREAKS.

A LARGER CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN
KANSAS.  THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO EXPAND WITH TIME AS IT TRACKS
INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI.  THE ENVIRONMENT OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WAS BEGINNING TO DESTABILIZE...AND MAY BECOME
AN AREA FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT...AS OUTFLOW FROM THE
KANSAS STORM CLUSTER INTERACTS WITH THIS ENVIRONMENT.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT)...
FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIODS...COLLABORATION EFFORTS WITH HPC AND
SURROUNDING OFFICES SUGGESTED THAT THE WRF AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS WOULD
HAVE BETTER CHANCES OF VERIFYING.  THE GFS WAS THE OUTLIER AS
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES CONTINUES TO CREATE FALSE QPF OUTPUT.
THE GFS INITIALIZED THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION POORLY...WHILE THE WRF
WAS MUCH CLOSER TO REALITY.  A RUN TOTAL OF THE WRF FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SUGGESTED AN AXIS OF FOUR TO FIVE
INCHES FROM NEAR PITTSBURG KANSAS TO WINONA MISSOURI.

HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM
INTERACTING WITH AN AIRMASS LOADED IN MOISTURE CONTENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT BECOMES MAXIMIZED
TONIGHT AS A SUBTLE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...CONVERGING INTO NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES NORTH OF
THE FRONT.  THIS CONVERGENCE LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAYS DAYTIME
PERIOD...AND I WOULD SUSPECT THAT OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
ALONG THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE INTO MOST OF WEDNESDAYS PERIOD.

PERHAPS THE MOST DANGEROUS ASPECT TO THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL BE
TRAINING CONVECTION THAT COULD CREATE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN OVER
ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION...JUST DEPENDING ON WHERE THE BEST AXIS OF
CONVERGENCE SETS UP.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW PARALLEL TO THE FRONT WILL
CAUSE THE FRONT TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE CWA.  MEANWHILE
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO FRONTAL LOCATION NOT ONLY FROM THE
WESTERN GULF...BUT WATER VAPOR SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS A SUB-TROPICAL
FETCH.

WITH THIS SAID...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
OZARKS.  THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.  I ALSO EXPANDED THE WATCH TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA.
MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A HIGH WATER TABLE WILL ALLOW
FOR A QUICK ONSET OF FLASH FLOODING.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY - MONDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTS THAT THE INTENSITY OF THE SUMMERTIME
HIGH REMAINS MODEST OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIODS.  EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS WILL
BE POSITIONED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BELT OF WESTERLIES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TYPICAL JULY TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOW 90S.  MOISTURE LEVELS WILL TAKE ON MORE OF A TROPICAL
STRUCTURE...LEADING TO RAIN CHANCES ON A DAILY BASIS.  THE
SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON PULSE THUNDERSTORM SEASON LOOKS TO BE UNDERWAY
AS MODELS SHOW PWATS CONSISTENTLY RANGING FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES.
MEANWHILE...MODELS ALSO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A COUPLE OF
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MIGRATING THROUGH THE WESTERLY ZONED OUT FLOW.

AS A RESULT...I WILL KEEP LOW END RAIN CHANCES WITHIN THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.  SEVERE WEATHER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
IF AN OVERNIGHT MCS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  DOWNBURST POTENTIAL
WITH AFTERNOON PULSERS WILL EXISTS GIVEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE
TRANSPORTING IN FROM THE GULF.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 1800 UTC KSGF/KJLN TAFS...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST
OF THE TAF SITES FOR THE MOST PART...FOR NOW. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO PASSING NORTH OF KJLN ACROSS EASTERN KS.
CLOUDS HAVE SUPPRESSED INSTABILITY...BUT BELIEVE WE COULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT WITH SFC TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY
RECOVERING SOMEWHAT DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TONIGHT AS AN ORGANIZED
CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVES ESE-SE INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW...HAVE JUST
MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE PREDOMINATE WORST CONDITIONS FOR
TONIGHT...BUT COULD SEE SOME LOWER IFR CEILINGS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WAKE OF HEAVIER CONVECTION AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS. DSA

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL COUNTIES THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL COUNTIES THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
842 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-100145-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
842 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST
KANSAS INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS UP TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS
INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM NEOSHO TO
HERMITAGE. HOWEVER...MOST STORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT TRAINING CONVECTION ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL CREATE FLASH FLOODING. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL AVERAGE ONE TO THREE INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WHERE TRAINING STORMS OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS OUT NEAR
THE REGION. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA REMAINS MOIST
AND
UNSTABLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
731 PM CDT TUE JUL 08 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NW CAMDENTON          38.06N  92.81W
07/08/2008                   CAMDEN             MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES DOWN. REPORTED BY MISSOURI WATER PATROL.

&&

AF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
816 PM CDT TUE JUL 08 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0816 PM     TSTM WND GST     WEST MINERAL            37.28N  94.92W
07/08/2008  E70 MPH          CHEROKEE           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
823 PM CDT TUE JUL 08 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0607 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNW VIENNA            38.23N  91.97W
07/08/2008                   MARIES             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ACROSS AA HIGHWAY

&&

KARDELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
914 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008

MOZ088-093-090315-
JASPER MO-NEWTON MO-
914 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NEWTON AND SOUTHERN JASPER COUNTIES
UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

AT 911 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL JOPLIN TO 6
MILES SOUTH OF SAGINAW TO 6 MILES SOUTH OF SENECA...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM JOPLIN TO 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF NEOSHO TO 15 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF NEOSHO...MOVING EAST AT 29 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  DIAMOND BY 930 PM CDT.
  NEOSHO BY 935 PM CDT.
  GRANBY BY 945 PM CDT.
  SARCOXIE BY 955 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF ATLAS...FIDELITY...REEDS...STELLA...RITCHEY...STARK CITY
AND NEWTONIA ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS. THIS ALSO INCLUDES
INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 31.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

FOSTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
915 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008

MOZ078-089-090315-
DADE MO-CEDAR MO-
915 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR DADE AND SOUTHERN CEDAR COUNTIES
UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

AT 911 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LAMAR TO GOLDEN CITY
TO CARTHAGE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LAMAR TO 12 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF LAMAR TO CARTHAGE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  LOCKWOOD BY 925 PM CDT.
  GREENFIELD BY 930 PM CDT.
  STOCKTON LAKE BY 940 PM CDT.
  EVERTON BY 945 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF CEDARVILLE...SYLVANIA...MEINERT...JERICO SPRINGS...SOUTH
GREENFIELD...PENNSBORO...NEOLA...ARCOLA...UMBER VIEW HEIGHTS AND
DADEVILLE ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

FOSTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1022 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008

MOZ057-069-090415-
CAMDEN MO-MILLER MO-
1022 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR EASTERN CAMDEN AND MILLER COUNTIES
UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

AT 1019 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM VILLAGE OF FOUR
SEASONS TO MACKS CREEK...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES WEST
OF OSAGE BEACH TO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAMDENTON...MOVING EAST AT 32
MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  LAKELAND...OSAGE BEACH AND CAMDENTON BY 1030 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF BAGNELL...LINN CREEK...KAISER...FREEDOM...
DECATURVILLE...TUSCUMBIA...MONTREAL...ULMAN...BRUMLEY AND WET GLAIZE
ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

FOSTER