Severe Thunderstorm Warning 399, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
249 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2008

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SUBTLE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY HAS INTERACTED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MISSOURI OZARKS DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO. WINDS ALOFT ARE RATHER
WEAK...WITH THE HIGHEST SPEED IN THE 20-25KT RANGE THROUGH THE
0-6KM LAYER. WITH NOTHING TO HOLD BACK FREE CONVECTION...WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
INSTABILITY BASED...THUS COVERAGE WILL WANE STEADILY AFTER SUNSET.
PULSE TYPE SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH WINDS TO 60 MPH AND
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND QUARTERS.

TONIGHT...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...INSTABILITY BASED SHRA/TSRA WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. FAIR AND QUIET CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE REST OF TONIGHT...THOUGH WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON MCS DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE DAKOTAS/NEBRASKA AS THIS MAY
APPROACH BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL SLIP
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH. OVERNIGHT MCS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE NORTH...
BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR ITS PROGRESSION AS THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVERAGE COULD HAMPER WARMING A BIT. CONTINUED MOIST LOW LEVELS
AND REASONABLY COOL MID LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN A CAP
FREE AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. LIFT FROM THE TROUGH AND
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL QUICKLY INCITE SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
STRONGER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...50KT...WITH MLCAPE IN THE
2000-2500 J/KG RANGE. A FEW SUPERCELL STORMS WILL DEVELOP...BUT
THE MORE LIKELY AND DOMINATE STORM MODE WILL BE CLUSTERS AND LINE
SEGMENTS. LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ARE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISKS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...DEVIL IS IN THE FORECAST DETAIL FOR THESE
DAYS. THE LATEST SUITE OF MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WILL LIKELY DOMINATE...LEADING TO LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN.
BUT AS WITH THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW...THINGS CAN
CHANGE QUICKLY. UNFORTUNATELY...NORTHWEST FLOW HAS ITS WAY OF
SURPRISING AND WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC OUTLOOK.
TIMING SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE THE KEY. HAVE FORECASTED NEAR
PERSISTENCE TEMPS AS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE 925/850MB TEMP PROFILES
ARE PROGGED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUITE OF MED RANGE MODEL OUTPUT
RATHER CONSISTENT WITH PRIOR RUNS. CONTINUED MOIST LOW LEVELS AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY EACH DAY. TIMING INDIVIDUAL WAVES WITHIN THE
BROADER FLOW WILL BE THE KEY TO HIGHLIGHTING PERIODS MORE PRONE TO
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SUCH DETAIL IS NOT TRUSTWORTHY
AT THIS JUNCTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TO NEAR AVERAGE.

GAGAN

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CIRRUS DECK CONTINUES TO SPREAD
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. BELOW THE CIRRUS
SHIELD...CUMULUS FIELD IS DEVELOPING AIDED BY HEATING OF THE DAY.
AN AFTERNOON ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE
LATEST SCAN FROM WSR-88D KSGF SHOWING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
TRYING TO DEVELOP NEAR URBANA AND WEAUBLEAU...NORTHEAST OF THE
TERMINALS. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE MENTION OF VICINITY
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WILL
AMEND AS NECESSARY IF CONVECTION FURTHER DEVELOPS.

ANGLE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1256 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-221800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1256 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

 ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OZARKS AND
 SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO LOW WIND SHEAR...
 ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND THE OVERALL COVERAGE
 OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED. AN ISOLATED STORM
 MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL TO THE SIZE
 OF QUARTERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

 THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
 MORNING. DUE TO AN INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
 ARE POSSIBLE. A PERSISTENT...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL
 MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
 THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO THE
 WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
234 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2008

MOZ089-094-212000-
LAWRENCE MO-DADE MO-
234 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR LAWRENCE AND SOUTHWESTERN DADE
COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

AT 232 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF LOCKWOOD...OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF GREENFIELD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 18 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MILLER AND 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF MOUNT VERNON BY 300 PM CDT.

THE TOWN OF RED OAK IS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM. THIS ALSO INCLUDES
INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 32 AND 56.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM AND PEASIZE HAIL.

ANGLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
238 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0238 PM     HAIL             4 N MORRISVILLE         37.54N  93.43W
06/21/2008  E0.88 INCH       POLK               MO   PUBLIC

&&

KARDELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
244 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2008

MOZ079-080-090-091-212030-
GREENE MO-WEBSTER MO-POLK MO-DALLAS MO-
244 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR GREENE...SOUTHERN DALLAS...SOUTHERN
POLK AND WEBSTER COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

AT 242 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MARSHFIELD TO FAIR GROVE TO PLEASANT HOPE TO MORRISVILLE...OR ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF MARSHFIELD TO 7 MILES NORTH
OF STRAFFORD TO 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF STRAFFORD TO 11 MILES SOUTH OF
BOLIVAR...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  MARSHFIELD AND 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NIANGUA BY 300 PM CDT.
  WILLARD AND STRAFFORD BY 315 PM CDT.
  FORDLAND...DIGGINS...6 MILES NORTHEAST OF SPRINGFIELD AND 6 MILES
  NORTH OF SEYMOUR BY 330 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF BASSVILLE...SACVILLE...CAVE SPRINGS...NORTHVIEW...
EBENEZER...BOIS DARC...GLIDEWELL AND TURNERS ARE IN THE PATH OF
THESE STORMS. THIS ALSO INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
65 AND 109.

WINDS NEAR 50 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS
ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

ANGLE