Severe Thunderstorm Warning 390, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
559 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION UNTIL ADDITIONAL TSRA DEVELOPMENT MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

CURRENTLY...SGF WSR-88D INDICATES THAT A LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXTENDS FROM NEAR JERICO SPRINGS SOUTHWARD TO FREISTATT TO SHELL
KNOB TO FAR SOUTHWESTERN STONE COUNTY. SCT TSRA CONTINUES TO FIRE
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. ADDITIONAL TSRA ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO GARNER STRENGTH
JUST TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST OVER E KS AND NW MO. EVEN MORE
TSRA GROWTH HAS BEEN OBSERVED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS FARTHER TO
THE NORTH OVER NEB AND IA.

CONVECTION THAT AFFECTED THE HWY 65 CORRIDOR HAS DONE A NUMBER ON
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED TO AROUND
70F...AND BOTH SBCAPE AND MLCAPE VALUES HAVE PLUMMETED INTO THE
HUNDREDS OF J/KG. AREAS THAT WERE UNTOUCHED BY CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON REMAINED PRIMED FOR SUPPORTING CONTINUED TSRA
DEVELOPMENT. IN GENERAL...SBCAPE AND MLCAPE ARE NEAR 2000 J/KG.
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEARING 40KT...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL WAVE WITHIN NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR LIFT AS IT MOVES INTO MO.

THE END RESULT IS THAT ANOTHER PERIOD OR TWO OF TSRA ARE IN THE
OFFING FOR THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERE RISK WILL BE MOST
PROMINENT THIS EVENING...SLACKENING OFF DUE TO DECREASED
INSTABILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH THE RISK FOR
TORRENTIAL RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN.

GAGAN

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG A BOUNDARY ROUGHLY LOCATED ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOP AS ML
CAPE OF 1200 TO 2000 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 30KT IS
LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THE
TORNADO THREAT LOOKS TO BE LIMITED DUE TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...HOWEVER WITH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...SO
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

IN ADDITION TO THIS ACTIVITY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE IS THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO IOWA.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS A RESULT THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
KANSAS AND NEBRASKA WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. WIND
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THESE
STORM WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ALSO...THESE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST INTO THE
AREA...BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND PRODUCE RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WISE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE...PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO
BE SCT TSRA THAT WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AND LIKELY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY MVFR OR IFR VIS/CIG WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
TSRA ACTIVITY AND NOT WORTHY OF MORE THAN A TEMPO. TSRA ACTIVITY
SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AERODROMES FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING WESTERLY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

GAGAN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
731 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-210000-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
731 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
  GOLF BALLS...DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND LOCALLY
  HEAVY RAINFALL.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL
  BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM STOCKTON TO SALEM.

  DISCUSSION:

  ONGOING STORMS OVER NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL
  SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND INTERACT WITH AN
  UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM STOCKTON TO
  SALEM...THIS EVENING.

  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN
  MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
  FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAIN OVER THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS A FRONT MOVES
  THROUGH THE AREA. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MIDDLE HALF OF NEXT
  WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ALONG AND NORTH OF A STOCKTON
  TO SALEM LINE THIS EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

TERRY

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
602 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

MOZ056-200000-
MORGAN MO-
602 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHERN MORGAN COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM
CDT...

AT 557 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SMITHTON...OR 7 MILES EAST OF SEDALIA...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 8 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
604 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0559 PM     FLASH FLOOD      6 SSE SPRINGFIELD       37.12N 93.24W
06/19/2008                   GREENE             MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

            SIX INCHES OF WATER OVER ROAD AT LONE PINE AND JAMES
            RIVER FREEWAY.

&&

GAEDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
610 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NE SPRINGFIELD        37.24N 93.23W
06/19/2008                   GREENE             MO   NWS STORM SURVEY

            WALL BLOWN OUT AT A SELF STORAGE BUSINESS.

&&

GAEDE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
729 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

MOZ055-200130-
BENTON MO-
729 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BENTON COUNTY UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

AT 724 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GREEN RIDGE TO
CALHOUN...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
WHITEMAN AIR FORCE BASE TO WINDSOR TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WINDSOR...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 26 MPH.

PEOPLE IN BENTON COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF LINCOLN...COLE CAMP
AND WARSAW...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

WISE