Severe Thunderstorm Warning 261, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 310252
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
951 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

MOC015-029-131-141-310345-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0261.000000T0000Z-080531T0345Z/
CAMDEN MO-MILLER MO-BENTON MO-MORGAN MO-
951 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CDT
FOR MILLER...NORTHERN CAMDEN...SOUTHERN BENTON AND SOUTHERN MORGAN
COUNTIES...

AT 948 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM EDWARDS TO
TUSCUMBIA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 22 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  OSAGE BEACH BY 1005 PM CDT.
  IBERIA BY 1035 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF MARYS HOME...HURRICANE DECK...CLIMAX SPRINGS...
BARNUMTON...ULMAN...KAISER...GREEN BAY TERRACE...SAINT ELIZABETH...
OLD LINN CREEK AND BRUMLEY ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ALSO INCLUDES TRUMAN LAKE...TRUMAN LAKE STATE 
PARK...THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE OF THE OZARKS AND LAKE OF THE 
OZARKS STATE PARK.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSE A VARIETY OF HAZARDS TO THOSE OUTDOORS...
INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS THAT CAN CREATE DANGEROUS
FLYING PROJECTILES AND DEBRIS...AS WELL AS DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...MOVE INDOORS TO A
STURDY SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3817 9220 3816 9219 3803 9218 3802 9219
      3802 9240 3801 9241 3809 9351 3826 9351
      3833 9220
TIME...MOT...LOC 0251Z 298DEG 19KT 3813 9318 3821 9249

$$

SCHAUMANN

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 310312
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1011 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

MOC015-029-131-141-310345-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0261.000000T0000Z-080531T0345Z/
CAMDEN MO-MILLER MO-BENTON MO-MORGAN MO-
1011 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CDT
FOR MILLER...NORTHERN CAMDEN...SOUTHEASTERN BENTON AND SOUTHERN
MORGAN COUNTIES...

AT 1007 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM EDWARDS TO ULMAN...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 22 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  IBERIA BY 1035 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF SAINT ELIZABETH...CLIMAX SPRINGS...BARNUMTON...GREEN BAY
TERRACE...OLD LINN CREEK...BRUMLEY...LINN CREEK AND FREEDOM ARE IN 
THE PATH OF THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ALSO INCLUDES TRUMAN 
LAKE...TRUMAN LAKE STATE PARK...LAKE OF THE OZARKS AND LAKE OF THE 
OZARKS STATE PARK.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME ROTATION WITH THESE STORMS. WHILE
NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A TORNADO IS
SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT
SATURDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3833 9220 3817 9220 3816 9219 3807 9218
      3802 9219 3802 9240 3801 9241 3808 9321
      3827 9321
TIME...MOT...LOC 0311Z 298DEG 19KT 3812 9313 3816 9237

$$

SCHAUMANN

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 310332
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1029 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

MOC015-141-310339-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0261.000000T0000Z-080531T0345Z/
BENTON MO-MORGAN MO-
1029 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN BENTON AND
SOUTHERN MORGAN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN BENTON AND 
SOUTHERN MORGAN COUNTIES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT
SATURDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3806 9218 3802 9219 3802 9240 3801 9241
      3807 9307 3809 9307 3820 9289 3819 9277
      3822 9275 3823 9269 3825 9220
TIME...MOT...LOC 0329Z 298DEG 19KT 3809 9299 3810 9221

$$

MOC029-131-310345-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0261.000000T0000Z-080531T0345Z/
CAMDEN MO-MILLER MO-
1029 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN CAMDEN AND SOUTHERN MILLER COUNTIES...

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR 
SOUTHEASTERN CAMDEN COUNTY UNTIL 1130 PM CDT...

AT 1026 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CLIMAX SPRINGS TO
IBERIA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 22 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  IBERIA BY 1035 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF BRUMLEY...OLD LINN CREEK AND FREEDOM ARE IN THE PATH OF 
THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ALSO INCLUDES LAKE OF THE OZARKS 
AND LAKE OF THE OZARKS STATE PARK.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME ROTATION WITH THESE STORMS. WHILE
NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A TORNADO IS
SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE.

LAT...LON 3806 9218 3802 9219 3802 9240 3801 9241
      3807 9307 3809 9307 3820 9289 3819 9277
      3822 9275 3823 9269 3825 9220
TIME...MOT...LOC 0329Z 298DEG 19KT 3809 9299 3810 9221

$$

SCHAUMANN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
650 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS CONTINUED FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AT LATE AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION
WAS SUPPORTED BY A PASSING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF 250 MB JET.

FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE OZARKS A MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION REMAINED
IN PLACE. IN FACT THE 00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM SPRINGFIELD CONTINUED
TO DEPICT A STOUT CAP WITH 12.5 DEGREES C AT 700 MB. ISOLATED STORMS
HAD DEVELOPED FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. HOWEVER
WITH THE LACK OF FORCING CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO OVERCOME THIS CAP.

IT APPEARS SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREAS
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE SURFACE
BASED CAPE WILL BE NEAR 3000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYERED SHEAR NEAR 40
KTS. THIS WILL SUPPORT SOME VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AND THE POTENTIAL OF
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS AND TRUMAN LAKE
REGIONS. TORNADIC POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW WITH MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR
PARAMETERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE OVERALL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHERS APPEARS TO HAVE DECREASED.

WITH THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EXPECT STORM DEVELOPMENT TO
BE DRIVEN BY LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW OR
AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT SAGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. WEAKENING
STORMS MAY MAKE INTO FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI LATE THIS EVENING.

FOSTER

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WITH CONVECTION CHANCES AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMES STALLED OUT OVER THE AREA.

CURRENTLY COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO
NORTHWEST MISSOURI WHILE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM PREVIOUS
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS LOCATED FROM EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO
ILLINOIS. CONVECTION WAS JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN A BAND FROM
JUST NORTH OF KANSAS CITY TO NEAR CHICAGO.

18Z SOUNDING FROM SGF SHOWS A THERMAL CAPPING INVERSION FROM
AROUND 750 TO 700 MB WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 13 DEG C AT 700 MB.
BOTH GFS/NAM WERE UNDERESTIMATING 700MB TEMPS AT 18Z BUT DO ERODE
THE CAP THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CWA. SHOULD SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING AS THE CAP
ERODES AS WELL AS CONVECTION SLIDING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MO
COUNTIES WITHIN THE CWA. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EXIST
FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH CAPES OF 2500
TO 4000 J/KG AND AMPLE WIND SHEAR.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY THE LATE EVENING AS
INSTABILITY DECREASES ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
DEVLEOP OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT AND PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI TOWARDS MORNING AND ON SATURDAY. FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
STALL OUT ALONG THE MISSOURI ARKANSAS BORDER ON SATURDAY WITH THE
MAIN CONVECTIVE CHANCES TO REMAIN AROUND THE FRONT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND.

LINDENBERG

LONG TERM (MONDAY - FRIDAY)...
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS BASED ON HOW THE MAIN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AFFECTS THE OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEK WITH SUBTLE
SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH A MEAN ZONAL FLOW SCENARIO. HAVE
HIGHLIGHTED THE BEST POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. TIMING WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR LATEST SHIFTS BUT THE
OVERALL SCENARIO SEEMS TO BE FINE AS THE MAIN FORCING AND PRESSURE
SYSTEM REMAINING NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. THE PROBLEM FOR NEXT WEEK
IS BASED ON OVERNIGHT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES DEVELOPING
ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET SOMEWHERE IN THE PLAINS AND MID
WEST. IF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA...AND
CORFIDI VECTORS FORECAST A SOUTHEAST/EAST DIRECTION...THE COULD LEAD
TO A LARGE SCALE PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH THE MAIN TIME FRAME OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATER
FORECASTS WILL NEED TO PLAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE APEX OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET...SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION AND SHORT WAVE INDUCED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. JLT

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...MAIN FORECAST AND AVIATION PROBLEMS DEAL WITH
CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR KCNU...NORTHEAST TOWARD
KSZL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING. TIMING WILL REMAIN A PROBLEM SO I INTRODUCED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY AT KJLN AROUND 2Z...AND 3Z FOR KSGF.
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
NOT ENOUGH FOR A TEMPORARY PERIOD AS IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
PRODUCE THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE BRIEF AND LAST LESS THAN A HALF
HOUR. AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...ON GOING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
PROBLEMATIC WITH MORE POSSIBILITIES OF BRIEF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. TOO EARLY TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF FORECAST.

JLT

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
815 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-010115-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
815 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

 SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
 PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...DAMAGING WINDS IN
 EXCESS OF 60 MPH...HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
 TORNADO.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL
 MISSOURI THIS EVENING...THEN SPREAD SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. THE STORMS
 WILL AFFECT AREAS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM JOPLIN TO ROLLA THROUGH
 THE EVENING HOURS...AND MOVE INTO FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI AFTER
 MIDNIGHT.

  DISCUSSION:

 THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
 SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
 FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS FROM
 SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY
 THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
 HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE HIGHEST RISK
 OF SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM PITTSBURG
 KANSAS TO CAMDENTON MISSOURI.

 HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...
 ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE STORMS IN A SHORT
 PERIOD OF TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

LEFT OVER SATURDAY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION...BEFORE ENDING BEFORE NOON. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE REGION AND SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK
AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST
 KANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOSTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
751 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

MOZ055-310130-
BENTON MO-
751 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHERN BENTON COUNTY UNTIL 830 PM
CDT...

AT 747 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LINCOLN...OR 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
WINDSOR...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  COLE CAMP BY 805 PM CDT.

THE TOWN OF CROCKERVILLE IS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

SCHAUMANN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
843 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LINCOLN                 38.39N 93.33W
05/30/2008                   BENTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SMALL TREES UPROOTED AND LIMBS SNAPPED IN LINCOLN.

&&

ANGLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
900 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0859 PM     TSTM WND GST     GRAVOIS MILLS           38.31N  92.83W
05/30/2008  E55 MPH          MORGAN             MO   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED WINDS OF 50 TO 55 MPH.

&&

AF