Severe Thunderstorm Warning 251, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
655 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.UPDATE...

MESOSCALE UPDATE...

AREAS OF TSRA CONTINUE TO GROW IN ADVANCE OF A MID LEVEL MCV
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES ANOTHER BOUNDARY FROM THE LAKE OF THE
OZARKS SOUTHWESTWARD TO BOLIVAR AND ANDERSON...DUE FOR THE MOST
PART TO A MOISTURE GRADIENT. WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY...CONDITIONS
ARE MORE STABLE AND GENERALLY FREE OF CLOUD COVER. EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY...ADDITIONAL TSRA HAVE SPROUTED...WITH THE MOST INTENSE
NEAR THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS.

THE ACTIVITY FROM THE LAKE OZARK AREA SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MLCAPE IN
THIS AREA REMAINS IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG WITH LITTLE IF ANY CAP.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL...25 TO 30 KT...BUT SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO KEEP TSRA ORGANIZED IN LINES/CLUSTERS. PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER RISK WILL BE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. HAIL REPORTS HAVE
BEEN SPARSE TO THIS POINT. GENERALLY SPEAKING...QUARTER SIZE HAIL
IS POSSIBLE...BUT MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS WILL SUPPORT UP TO GOLF
BALL HAIL. MINIMAL TORNADO RISK WILL DECREASE EVEN FURTHER AFTER
SUNSET.

FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE CLUSTER OF
STORMS NEAR THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS. NUMEROUS CELL MERGERS HAVE
OCCURRED HERE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND RAINFALL RATES CONTINUE
TO EXCEED ONE INCH PER HOUR. RISK OF FLOODING IS SLIGHTLY LESS
WITH THE LINE OF STORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI GIVEN ITS
PROGRESSIVE WEST TO EAST MOVEMENT.

AFTER SUNSET...CONVECTION WILL LINGER ALONG OUTFLOWS IN CENTRAL
MISSOURI BEFORE WANING DUE TO LOSS OF INSOLATION. CLEARING WILL BE
QUICKER TO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.

GUARD CANNOT BE LET DOWN TOO MUCH HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. DEEP LAYER FLOW SUGGESTS THAT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER KS
MAY SLIDE INTO THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR/OBSERVATION TRENDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

GAGAN

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MCV FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1.75 INCHES ON THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING...THIS FEATURE
IS GOING TO PRODUCE SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED TO COVER COUNTIES ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR. COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI LATE MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT THEN SLOWLY MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD SET UP A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE WEATHER EVENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SB/CAPES OVER 3000 J/KG AND VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. PWATS
REMAIN HIGH WITH OVER 1.5 INCHES ON GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS. STILL
THINK WE COULD SEE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY.

FRONT SLOWLY SAGS DOWN INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...THEN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY EVENING. UPPER
RIDGING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING RETURNS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.

GCC

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE...PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
IS COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS EXITING TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT LINGERING CONVECTION NORTH OF
THE SGF AERODROME IS WEAKENING AND MOVING AWAY. HAVE KEPT A
MENTION OF VCTS FOR THE NEXT HOUR AS A HEDGE. CONCERNS THEN SWITCH
TO POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FOG GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR OBSERVATION TRENDS HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT TO SEE IF
FOG DOES BEGIN TO FORM...HOWEVER THOUGHTS ARE THAT SSE FLOW OF
AROUND OR GREATER THAN 10KT SHOULD KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MIXED
ENOUGH. ANOTHER SHOT OF TSRA IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...
REMNANTS OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN KS/OK. HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY...HOWEVER WILL MONITOR RADAR
TRENDS TO INCREASE THE RISK. MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSRA POSSIBLE.

GAGAN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOZ070-071-077-
     079>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
706 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-270015-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
706 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

 LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...
 DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
 AND HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
 AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE
 MISSOURI OZARKS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. BETTER COVERAGE
 OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS...
 GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF LINE FROM MACKS CREEK TO LEBANON TO
 GAINESVILLE.

  DISCUSSION:

 WARM...VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
 REGION. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS
 OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
 MISSOURI. INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN CENTRAL
 MISSOURI...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS. ANOTHER LINE
 OF STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN OZARKS...AFFECTING AREAS
 ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM FORT LEONARD WOOD TO HOUSTON AND
 GAINESVILLE. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
 IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. AN ISOLATED
 TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT THE RISK FOR THIS IS
 LOW. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL
 RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS
WILL LIKELY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL ALL POSSIBLE. FLOODING OF CREEKS...STREAMS...LOW
WATER CROSSINGS AND RIVERS WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
709 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0707 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DIXON                   37.99N  92.09W
05/25/2008                   PULASKI            MO   PUBLIC

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN IN THE CITY NEAR PEARL
            STREET.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
714 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0439 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SILVER DOLLAR CITY      36.67N  93.34W
05/25/2008                   STONE              MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            *** 1 INJ *** LARGE PORTION OF A TREE FELL ONTO A
            TROLLEY IN SILVER DOLLAR CITY AMUSEMENT PARK CAUSING AN
            ABRUPT STOP. ONE INJURY RESULTED FROM THE SUDDEN STOP OF
            THE TROLLEY.

&&

CORRECTED INJURIES...REMARKS

AF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
716 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W DIXON               37.99N 92.17W
05/25/2008                   PULASKI            MO   PUBLIC

            SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS DOWNED TREES NEAR THE
            INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY N AND HANCOCK.

&&

DCRAMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
719 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0717 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N DIXON               38.01N  92.09W
05/25/2008                   PULASKI            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWNED BY THUNDERSTORM WINDS BETWEEN
            HIGHWAYS MM AND W.

&&

AF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
723 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0653 PM     TSTM WND GST     HOUSTON                 37.33N  91.96W
05/25/2008  E60 MPH          TEXAS              MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            ESTIMATED 50 TO 60 MPH WINDS REPORTED.

&&

AF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
728 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BRUSHYKNOB              36.96N  92.49W
05/25/2008                   DOUGLAS            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 76 JUST EAST OF BRUSHYKNOB.

&&

AF